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Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
JY. Lee, H. Kim, A. Gasparrini, B. Armstrong, ML. Bell, F. Sera, E. Lavigne, R. Abrutzky, S. Tong, MSZS. Coelho, PHN. Saldiva, PM. Correa, NV. Ortega, H. Kan, SO. Garcia, J. Kyselý, A. Urban, H. Orru, E. Indermitte, JJK. Jaakkola, NRI. Ryti, M....
Jazyk angličtina Země Nizozemsko
Typ dokumentu časopisecké články, práce podpořená grantem
Grantová podpora
MR/M022625/1
Medical Research Council - United Kingdom
- MeSH
- celosvětové zdraví * MeSH
- globální oteplování * MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mortalita trendy MeSH
- předpověď MeSH
- teplota MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010-2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (-0.92%p/°C) and Australia (-0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.
Air Health Science Division Health Canada Ottawa ON Canada
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research University of Oulu Oulu Finland
Climate Change Cluster Faculty of Sciences University of Technology Sydney Sydney Australia
Department of Environmental Engineering Kyoto University Kyoto Japan
Department of Environmental Health Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health Boston MA USA
Department of Environmental Health National Institute of Public Health Cuernavaca Morelos Mexico
Department of Epidemiology Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge Lisboa Portugal
Department of Epidemiology Lazio Regional Health Service Rome Italy
Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine Umeå University Umeå Sweden
Department of Public Health Universidad de los Andes Santiago Chile
Environmental and Occupational Medicine National Taiwan University NTU Hospital Taipei Taiwan
EPIUnit Instituto de Saúde Pública Universidade do Porto Porto Portugal
Faculty of Environmental Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Czech Republic
Faculty of Health and Sport Science University of Tsukuba Tsukuba Japan
Hospital Vista Hermosa Bogotá Colombia
Institute of Advanced Studies of the University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil
Institute of Atmospheric Physics Czech Academy of Sciences Prague Czech Republic
Institute of Environment Health and Societies Brunel University London London UK
Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health University of Tartu Tartu Estonia
Santé Publique France French National Public Health Agency Saint Maurice France
School of Epidemiology and Public Health University of Ottawa Ottawa ON Canada
School of Forestry and Environmental Studies Yale University New Haven CT USA
School of Physics Dublin Institute of Technology Dublin Ireland
School of Public Health and Social Work Queensland University of Technology Brisbane QLD Australia
Shanghai Children's Medical Centre Shanghi Jiao Tong University Shanghai China
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute Basel Switzerland
The Institute of Research and Development Duy Tan University Da Nang Viet Nam
Citace poskytuje Crossref.org
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- $a Lee, Jae Young $u Graduate School of Public Health, Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
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- $a Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability / $c JY. Lee, H. Kim, A. Gasparrini, B. Armstrong, ML. Bell, F. Sera, E. Lavigne, R. Abrutzky, S. Tong, MSZS. Coelho, PHN. Saldiva, PM. Correa, NV. Ortega, H. Kan, SO. Garcia, J. Kyselý, A. Urban, H. Orru, E. Indermitte, JJK. Jaakkola, NRI. Ryti, M. Pascal, PG. Goodman, A. Zeka, P. Michelozzi, M. Scortichini, M. Hashizume, Y. Honda, M. Hurtado, J. Cruz, X. Seposo, B. Nunes, JP. Teixeira, A. Tobias, C. Íñiguez, B. Forsberg, C. Åström, AM. Vicedo-Cabrera, MS. Ragettli, YL. Guo, BY. Chen, A. Zanobetti, J. Schwartz, TN. Dang, D. Do Van, F. Mayvaneh, A. Overcenco, S. Li, Y. Guo,
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- $a An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010-2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (-0.92%p/°C) and Australia (-0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.
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- 700 1_
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- 700 1_
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- 700 1_
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- 700 1_
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- 700 1_
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- 700 1_
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- 700 1_
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