Detail
Article
Online article
FT
Medvik - BMC
  • Something wrong with this record ?

Covidogram as a simple tool for predicting severe course of COVID-19: population-based study

J. Jarkovsky, K. Benesova, V. Cerny, J. Razova, P. Kala, J. Dolina, O. Majek, S. Sebestova, M. Bezdekova, H. Melicharova, L. Snajdrova, L. Dusek, J. Parenica

. 2021 ; 11 (2) : e045442. [pub] 20210223

Language English Country Great Britain

Document type Journal Article, Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Persistent link   https://www.medvik.cz/link/bmc21011490

OBJECTIVES: COVID-19 might either be entirely asymptomatic or manifest itself with a large variability of disease severity. It is beneficial to identify early patients with a high risk of severe course. The aim of the analysis was to develop a prognostic model for the prediction of the severe course of acute respiratory infection. DESIGN: A population-based study. SETTING: Czech Republic. PARTICIPANTS: The first 7455 consecutive patients with COVID-19 who were identified by reverse transcription-PCR testing from 1 March 2020 to 17 May 2020. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Severe course of COVID-19. RESULT: Of a total 6.2% of patients developed a severe course of COVID-19. Age, male sex, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, recent history of cancer, chronic heart failure, acid-related disorders treated with proton-pump inhibitors and diabetes mellitus were found to be independent negative prognostic factors (Area under the ROC Curve (AUC) was 0.893). The results were visualised by risk heat maps, and we called this diagram a 'covidogram'. Acid-related disorders treated with proton-pump inhibitors might represent a negative prognostic factor. CONCLUSION: We developed a very simple prediction model called 'covidogram', which is based on elementary independent variables (age, male sex and the presence of several chronic diseases) and represents a tool that makes it possible to identify-with a high reliability-patients who are at risk of a severe course of COVID-19. Obtained results open clinically relevant question about the role of acid-related disorders treated by proton-pump inhibitors as predictor for severe course of COVID-19.

References provided by Crossref.org

000      
00000naa a2200000 a 4500
001      
bmc21011490
003      
CZ-PrNML
005      
20220107090800.0
007      
ta
008      
210420s2021 xxk f 000 0|eng||
009      
AR
024    7_
$a 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-045442 $2 doi
035    __
$a (PubMed)33622955
040    __
$a ABA008 $b cze $d ABA008 $e AACR2
041    0_
$a eng
044    __
$a xxk
100    1_
$a Jarkovsky, Jiri $u Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic ; Institute of Health Information and Statistics of the Czech Republic, Praha, Czech Republic
245    10
$a Covidogram as a simple tool for predicting severe course of COVID-19: population-based study / $c J. Jarkovsky, K. Benesova, V. Cerny, J. Razova, P. Kala, J. Dolina, O. Majek, S. Sebestova, M. Bezdekova, H. Melicharova, L. Snajdrova, L. Dusek, J. Parenica
520    9_
$a OBJECTIVES: COVID-19 might either be entirely asymptomatic or manifest itself with a large variability of disease severity. It is beneficial to identify early patients with a high risk of severe course. The aim of the analysis was to develop a prognostic model for the prediction of the severe course of acute respiratory infection. DESIGN: A population-based study. SETTING: Czech Republic. PARTICIPANTS: The first 7455 consecutive patients with COVID-19 who were identified by reverse transcription-PCR testing from 1 March 2020 to 17 May 2020. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Severe course of COVID-19. RESULT: Of a total 6.2% of patients developed a severe course of COVID-19. Age, male sex, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, recent history of cancer, chronic heart failure, acid-related disorders treated with proton-pump inhibitors and diabetes mellitus were found to be independent negative prognostic factors (Area under the ROC Curve (AUC) was 0.893). The results were visualised by risk heat maps, and we called this diagram a 'covidogram'. Acid-related disorders treated with proton-pump inhibitors might represent a negative prognostic factor. CONCLUSION: We developed a very simple prediction model called 'covidogram', which is based on elementary independent variables (age, male sex and the presence of several chronic diseases) and represents a tool that makes it possible to identify-with a high reliability-patients who are at risk of a severe course of COVID-19. Obtained results open clinically relevant question about the role of acid-related disorders treated by proton-pump inhibitors as predictor for severe course of COVID-19.
650    _2
$a dospělí $7 D000328
650    _2
$a senioři $7 D000368
650    _2
$a senioři nad 80 let $7 D000369
650    12
$a COVID-19 $7 D000086382
650    _2
$a ženské pohlaví $7 D005260
650    _2
$a lidé $7 D006801
650    _2
$a mužské pohlaví $7 D008297
650    _2
$a lidé středního věku $7 D008875
650    _2
$a reprodukovatelnost výsledků $7 D015203
650    _2
$a výzkum $7 D012106
650    _2
$a SARS-CoV-2 $7 D000086402
651    _2
$a Česká republika $7 D018153
655    _2
$a časopisecké články $7 D016428
655    _2
$a práce podpořená grantem $7 D013485
700    1_
$a Benesova, Klara $u Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic ; Institute of Health Information and Statistics of the Czech Republic, Praha, Czech Republic
700    1_
$a Cerny, Vladimir $u Department of Anaesthesiology, Perioperative Medicine and Intensive Care, J.E. Purkinje University and Masaryk Hospital, Usti nad Labem, Czech Republic ; Department of Anesthesia, Pain Management and Perioperative Medicine, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
700    1_
$a Razova, Jarmila $u Ministry of Health of the Czech Republic, Praha, Czech Republic
700    1_
$a Kala, Petr $u Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic ; Internal and Cardiology Department, University Hospital Brno, Brno, Czech Republic
700    1_
$a Dolina, Jiri $u Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic ; Gastroenterology and Internal Department, University Hospital Brno, Brno, Czech Republic
700    1_
$a Majek, Ondrej $u Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic ; Institute of Health Information and Statistics of the Czech Republic, Praha, Czech Republic
700    1_
$a Sebestova, Silvie $u Institute of Health Information and Statistics of the Czech Republic, Praha, Czech Republic
700    1_
$a Bezdekova, Monika $u Institute of Health Information and Statistics of the Czech Republic, Praha, Czech Republic
700    1_
$a Melicharová, Hana $u Institute of Health Information and Statistics of the Czech Republic, Praha, Czech Republic $7 xx0268156
700    1_
$a Snajdrova, Lenka $u Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic ; Institute of Health Information and Statistics of the Czech Republic, Praha, Czech Republic
700    1_
$a Dusek, Ladislav $u Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic ; Institute of Health Information and Statistics of the Czech Republic, Praha, Czech Republic
700    1_
$a Parenica, Jiri $u Institute of Health Information and Statistics of the Czech Republic, Praha, Czech Republic jiri.parenica@atlas.cz ; Faculty of Medicine, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic ; Internal and Cardiology Department, University Hospital Brno, Brno, Czech Republic
773    0_
$w MED00184484 $t BMJ open $x 2044-6055 $g Roč. 11, č. 2 (2021), s. e045442
856    41
$u https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33622955 $y Pubmed
910    __
$a ABA008 $b sig $c sign $y p $z 0
990    __
$a 20210420 $b ABA008
991    __
$a 20220107090757 $b ABA008
999    __
$a ok $b bmc $g 1650005 $s 1131869
BAS    __
$a 3
BAS    __
$a PreBMC
BMC    __
$a 2021 $b 11 $c 2 $d e045442 $e 20210223 $i 2044-6055 $m BMJ open $n BMJ Open $x MED00184484
LZP    __
$a Pubmed-20210420

Find record

Citation metrics

Archiving options