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Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000-19: a three-stage modelling study

Y. Wu, S. Li, Q. Zhao, B. Wen, A. Gasparrini, S. Tong, A. Overcenco, A. Urban, A. Schneider, A. Entezari, AM. Vicedo-Cabrera, A. Zanobetti, A. Analitis, A. Zeka, A. Tobias, B. Nunes, B. Alahmad, B. Armstrong, B. Forsberg, SC. Pan, C. Íñiguez, C....

. 2022 ; 6 (5) : e410-e421. [pub] -

Jazyk angličtina Země Nizozemsko

Typ dokumentu časopisecké články, Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural, práce podpořená grantem

Perzistentní odkaz   https://www.medvik.cz/link/bmc22018623

Grantová podpora
P30 ES019776 NIEHS NIH HHS - United States
MR/R013349/1 Medical Research Council - United Kingdom

BACKGROUND: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000-19. METHODS: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° from 2000-19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. FINDINGS: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901-2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2-4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7-5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3-10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2-5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9-4·6). INTERPRETATION: Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.

Air Health Science Division Health Canada Ottawa ON Canada

Center for Climate Change Adaptation National Institute for Environmental Studies Tsukuba Japan

Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research University of Oulu Oulu Finland

Center for Global Health Nanjing Medical University Nanjing China

Centre for Statistical Methodology London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine London UK

Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine London UK

Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Universidade NOVA de Lisboa Lisbon Portugal

CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health Madrid Spain

Climate Air Quality Research Unit School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine Monash University Melbourne VIC Australia

Department of Earth Sciences University of Torino Turin Italy

Department of Environmental Health Faculty of Public Health University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam

Department of Environmental Health Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health Harvard University Boston MA USA

Department of Environmental Health National Institute of Public Health Cuernavaca Morelos Mexico

Department of Environmental Health School of Public Health Fudan University Shanghai China

Department of Environmental Health University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil

Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine Monash University Melbourne VIC Australia

Department of Epidemiology Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge Porto Portugal

Department of Epidemiology Lazio Regional Health Service Rome Italy

Department of Epidemiology School of Public Health Cheeloo College of Medicine Shandong University Jinan China

Department of Geography University of Santiago de Compostela Santiago de Compostela Spain

Department of Global Health Policy Graduate School of Medicine The University of Tokyo Tokyo Japan

Department of Hygiene Epidemiology and Medical Statistics National and Kapodistrian University of Athens Athens Greece

Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine School of Medicine Ewha Womans University Seoul South Korea

Department of Pathology Faculty of Medicine University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil

Department of Physical Chemical and Natural Systems Universidad Pablo de Olavide Sevilla Spain

Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine Umeå University Umeå Sweden

Department of Public Health Environments and Society London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine London UK

Department of Public Health Universidad de los Andes Santiago Chile

Department of Quantitative Methods School of Medicine University of the Republic Montevideo Uruguay

Department of Statistics and Computational Research Universitat de València València Spain

Department of Statistics Computer Science and Applications G Parenti University of Florence Florence Italy

Environmental and Occupational Medicine National Taiwan University College of Medicine and NTU Hospital National Taiwan University Taipei Taiwan

Environmental Health Department Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge Porto Portugal

EPIUnit Instituto de Saúde Pública Universidade do Porto Porto Portugal

Faculty of Environmental Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Czech Republic

Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences Hakim Sabzevari University Sabzevar Iran

Faculty of Geography Babeş Bolyai University Cluj Napoca Romania

Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health Rollins School of Public Health Emory University Atlanta GA USA

Graduate Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences National Taiwan University College of Public Health National Taiwan University Taipei Taiwan

Graduate School of Public Health Seoul National University Seoul South Korea

Health Innovation Lab Institute of Tropical Medicine Alexander von Humboldt Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia Lima Peru

IBE Chair of Epidemiology LMU Munich Munich Germany

INSPER São Paulo Brazil

Institute for Environment Health and Societies Brunel University London London UK

Institute of Atmospheric Physics Czech Academy of Sciences Prague Czech Republic

Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research Spanish Council for Scientific Research Barcelona Spain

Institute of Epidemiology Helmholtz Zentrum München German Research Center for Environmental Health Neuherberg Germany

Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health University of Tartu Tartu Estonia

Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine University of Bern Bern Switzerland

Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional Porto Portugal

Medical Research Center Oulu Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu Oulu Finland

National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health Labour and Social Protection of the Republic of Moldova Chișinău Moldova

National Institute for Public Health and the Environment Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health Bilthoven Netherlands

NationalInstitute of Environmental Health Science National Health Research Institutes Zhunan Taiwan

Norwegian Institute of Public Health Oslo Norway

Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research University of Bern Bern Switzerland

Santé Publique France Department of Environmental and Occupational Health French National Public Health Agency Saint Maurice France

School of Epidemiology and Public Health Faculty of Medicine University of Ottawa Ottawa ON Canada

School of Physics Technological University Dublin Dublin Ireland

School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences King's College London London UK

School of Public Health and Social Work Queensland University of Technology Brisbane QLD Australia

School of Public Health Institute of Environment and Population Health Anhui Medical University Hefei China

School of the Environment Yale University New Haven CT USA

School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health Nagasaki University Nagasaki Japan

Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California San Diego La Jolla CA USA

Shanghai Children's Medical Centre Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai China

Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute Basel Switzerland

Universidad de Buenos Aires Facultad de Ciencias Sociales Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani Buenos Aires Argentina

University of Basel Basel Switzerland

Citace poskytuje Crossref.org

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$a BACKGROUND: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000-19. METHODS: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° from 2000-19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. FINDINGS: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901-2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2-4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7-5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3-10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2-5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9-4·6). INTERPRETATION: Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.
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$a Wen, Bo $u Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
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$a Overcenco, Ala $u National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Protection of the Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, Moldova
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$a Schneider, Alexandra $u Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
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$a Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria $u Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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700    1_
$a Zeka, Ariana $u Institute for Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK
700    1_
$a Tobias, Aurelio $u Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
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$a Nunes, Baltazar $u Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
700    1_
$a Alahmad, Barrak $u Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
700    1_
$a Armstrong, Ben $u Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
700    1_
$a Forsberg, Bertil $u Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
700    1_
$a Pan, Shih-Chun $u NationalInstitute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
700    1_
$a Íñiguez, Carmen $u Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain; CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain
700    1_
$a Ameling, Caroline $u National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands
700    1_
$a De la Cruz Valencia, César $u Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico
700    1_
$a Åström, Christofer $u Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
700    1_
$a Houthuijs, Danny $u National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands
700    1_
$a Van Dung, Do $u Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
700    1_
$a Royé, Dominic $u CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain; Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
700    1_
$a Indermitte, Ene $u Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
700    1_
$a Lavigne, Eric $u School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
700    1_
$a Mayvaneh, Fatemeh $u Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
700    1_
$a Acquaotta, Fiorella $u Department of Earth Sciences, University of Torino, Turin, Italy
700    1_
$a de'Donato, Francesca $u Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
700    1_
$a Rao, Shilpa $u Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
700    1_
$a Sera, Francesco $u Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications "G Parenti", University of Florence, Florence, Italy
700    1_
$a Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel $u Health Innovation Lab, Institute of Tropical Medicine "Alexander von Humboldt", Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
700    1_
$a Kan, Haidong $u Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
700    1_
$a Orru, Hans $u Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
700    1_
$a Kim, Ho $u Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
700    1_
$a Holobaca, Iulian-Horia $u Faculty of Geography, Babeş-Bolyai University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
700    1_
$a Kyselý, Jan $u Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
700    1_
$a Madureira, Joana $u Environmental Health Department, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; EPIUnit-Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal; Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal
700    1_
$a Schwartz, Joel $u Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
700    1_
$a Jaakkola, Jouni J K $u Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
700    1_
$a Katsouyanni, Klea $u Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece; School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
700    1_
$a Hurtado Diaz, Magali $u Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico
700    1_
$a Ragettli, Martina S $u Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
700    1_
$a Hashizume, Masahiro $u Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
700    1_
$a Pascal, Mathilde $u Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
700    1_
$a de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline $u Department of Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
700    1_
$a Ortega, Nicolás Valdés $u Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile
700    1_
$a Ryti, Niilo $u Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
700    1_
$a Scovronick, Noah $u Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
700    1_
$a Michelozzi, Paola $u Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
700    1_
$a Correa, Patricia Matus $u Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile
700    1_
$a Goodman, Patrick $u School of Physics, Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
700    1_
$a Nascimento Saldiva, Paulo Hilario $u INSPER, São Paulo, Brazil
700    1_
$a Abrutzky, Rosana $u Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Buenos Aires, Argentina
700    1_
$a Osorio, Samuel $u Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
700    1_
$a Dang, Tran Ngoc $u Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
700    1_
$a Colistro, Valentina $u Department of Quantitative Methods, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay
700    1_
$a Huber, Veronika $u IBE-Chair of Epidemiology, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany; Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain
700    1_
$a Lee, Whanhee $u School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, School of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea
700    1_
$a Seposo, Xerxes $u School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
700    1_
$a Honda, Yasushi $u Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
700    1_
$a Guo, Yue Leon $u NationalInstitute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan; Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University College of Medicine and NTU Hospital, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Graduate Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, National Taiwan University College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
700    1_
$a Bell, Michelle L $u School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
700    1_
$a Guo, Yuming $u Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. Electronic address: yuming.guo@monash.edu
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