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Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000-19: a three-stage modelling study
Y. Wu, S. Li, Q. Zhao, B. Wen, A. Gasparrini, S. Tong, A. Overcenco, A. Urban, A. Schneider, A. Entezari, AM. Vicedo-Cabrera, A. Zanobetti, A. Analitis, A. Zeka, A. Tobias, B. Nunes, B. Alahmad, B. Armstrong, B. Forsberg, SC. Pan, C. Íñiguez, C....
Jazyk angličtina Země Nizozemsko
Typ dokumentu časopisecké články, Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural, práce podpořená grantem
Grantová podpora
P30 ES019776
NIEHS NIH HHS - United States
MR/R013349/1
Medical Research Council - United Kingdom
NLK
Directory of Open Access Journals
od 2017
Elsevier Open Access Journals
od 2017-04-01
ROAD: Directory of Open Access Scholarly Resources
od 2017
- MeSH
- biodiverzita * MeSH
- celosvětové zdraví * MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- těhotenství MeSH
- teplota MeSH
- velkoměsta MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- těhotenství MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Austrálie MeSH
- velkoměsta MeSH
BACKGROUND: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000-19. METHODS: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° from 2000-19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. FINDINGS: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901-2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2-4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7-5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3-10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2-5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9-4·6). INTERPRETATION: Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.
Air Health Science Division Health Canada Ottawa ON Canada
Center for Climate Change Adaptation National Institute for Environmental Studies Tsukuba Japan
Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research University of Oulu Oulu Finland
Center for Global Health Nanjing Medical University Nanjing China
Centre for Statistical Methodology London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine London UK
CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health Madrid Spain
Department of Earth Sciences University of Torino Turin Italy
Department of Environmental Health National Institute of Public Health Cuernavaca Morelos Mexico
Department of Environmental Health School of Public Health Fudan University Shanghai China
Department of Environmental Health University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil
Department of Epidemiology Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge Porto Portugal
Department of Epidemiology Lazio Regional Health Service Rome Italy
Department of Geography University of Santiago de Compostela Santiago de Compostela Spain
Department of Global Health Policy Graduate School of Medicine The University of Tokyo Tokyo Japan
Department of Pathology Faculty of Medicine University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil
Department of Physical Chemical and Natural Systems Universidad Pablo de Olavide Sevilla Spain
Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine Umeå University Umeå Sweden
Department of Public Health Universidad de los Andes Santiago Chile
Department of Quantitative Methods School of Medicine University of the Republic Montevideo Uruguay
Department of Statistics and Computational Research Universitat de València València Spain
Environmental Health Department Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge Porto Portugal
EPIUnit Instituto de Saúde Pública Universidade do Porto Porto Portugal
Faculty of Environmental Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Czech Republic
Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences Hakim Sabzevari University Sabzevar Iran
Faculty of Geography Babeş Bolyai University Cluj Napoca Romania
Graduate School of Public Health Seoul National University Seoul South Korea
IBE Chair of Epidemiology LMU Munich Munich Germany
Institute for Environment Health and Societies Brunel University London London UK
Institute of Atmospheric Physics Czech Academy of Sciences Prague Czech Republic
Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health University of Tartu Tartu Estonia
Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine University of Bern Bern Switzerland
Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional Porto Portugal
Medical Research Center Oulu Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu Oulu Finland
NationalInstitute of Environmental Health Science National Health Research Institutes Zhunan Taiwan
Norwegian Institute of Public Health Oslo Norway
Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research University of Bern Bern Switzerland
School of Epidemiology and Public Health Faculty of Medicine University of Ottawa Ottawa ON Canada
School of Physics Technological University Dublin Dublin Ireland
School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences King's College London London UK
School of Public Health and Social Work Queensland University of Technology Brisbane QLD Australia
School of the Environment Yale University New Haven CT USA
School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health Nagasaki University Nagasaki Japan
Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California San Diego La Jolla CA USA
Shanghai Children's Medical Centre Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai China
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute Basel Switzerland
Citace poskytuje Crossref.org
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- $a Wu, Yao $u Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
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- $a Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000-19: a three-stage modelling study / $c Y. Wu, S. Li, Q. Zhao, B. Wen, A. Gasparrini, S. Tong, A. Overcenco, A. Urban, A. Schneider, A. Entezari, AM. Vicedo-Cabrera, A. Zanobetti, A. Analitis, A. Zeka, A. Tobias, B. Nunes, B. Alahmad, B. Armstrong, B. Forsberg, SC. Pan, C. Íñiguez, C. Ameling, C. De la Cruz Valencia, C. Åström, D. Houthuijs, D. Van Dung, D. Royé, E. Indermitte, E. Lavigne, F. Mayvaneh, F. Acquaotta, F. de'Donato, S. Rao, F. Sera, G. Carrasco-Escobar, H. Kan, H. Orru, H. Kim, IH. Holobaca, J. Kyselý, J. Madureira, J. Schwartz, JJK. Jaakkola, K. Katsouyanni, M. Hurtado Diaz, MS. Ragettli, M. Hashizume, M. Pascal, M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, NV. Ortega, N. Ryti, N. Scovronick, P. Michelozzi, PM. Correa, P. Goodman, PH. Nascimento Saldiva, R. Abrutzky, S. Osorio, TN. Dang, V. Colistro, V. Huber, W. Lee, X. Seposo, Y. Honda, YL. Guo, ML. Bell, Y. Guo
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- $a BACKGROUND: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000-19. METHODS: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° from 2000-19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. FINDINGS: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901-2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2-4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7-5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3-10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2-5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9-4·6). INTERPRETATION: Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.
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- $a Li, Shanshan $u Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. Electronic address: shanshan.li@monash.edu
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- $a Zhao, Qi $u Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
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- $a Wen, Bo $u Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
- 700 1_
- $a Gasparrini, Antonio $u Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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- $a Tong, Shilu $u Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
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- $a Urban, Aleš $u Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
- 700 1_
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- 700 1_
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- $a Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria $u Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- 700 1_
- $a Zanobetti, Antonella $u Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
- 700 1_
- $a Analitis, Antonis $u Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
- 700 1_
- $a Zeka, Ariana $u Institute for Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK
- 700 1_
- $a Tobias, Aurelio $u Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
- 700 1_
- $a Nunes, Baltazar $u Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
- 700 1_
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- 700 1_
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- 700 1_
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- 700 1_
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- 700 1_
- $a Íñiguez, Carmen $u Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain; CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain
- 700 1_
- $a Ameling, Caroline $u National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands
- 700 1_
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- 700 1_
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- 700 1_
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- $a Van Dung, Do $u Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- 700 1_
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- 700 1_
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- 700 1_
- $a Lavigne, Eric $u School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
- 700 1_
- $a Mayvaneh, Fatemeh $u Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
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- 700 1_
- $a de'Donato, Francesca $u Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
- 700 1_
- $a Rao, Shilpa $u Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
- 700 1_
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- 700 1_
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- 700 1_
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- 700 1_
- $a Ragettli, Martina S $u Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
- 700 1_
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- 700 1_
- $a Pascal, Mathilde $u Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
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- $a de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Micheline $u Department of Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
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- $a Ryti, Niilo $u Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
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- $a Correa, Patricia Matus $u Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile
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- 700 1_
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