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Prediction of individual lifetime cardiovascular risk and potential treatment benefit: development and recalibration of the LIFE-CVD2 model to four European risk regions
SHJ. Hageman, S. Kaptoge, TI. de Vries, W. Lu, JM. Kist, HJA. van Os, ME. Numans, K. Läll, M. Bobak, H. Pikhart, R. Kubinova, S. Malyutina, A. Pająk, A. Tamosiunas, R. Erbel, A. Stang, B. Schmidt, S. Schramm, TR. Bolton, S. Spackman, SJL. Bakker,...
Jazyk angličtina Země Anglie, Velká Británie
Typ dokumentu časopisecké články, multicentrická studie
Grantová podpora
SP/09/002; RG/13/13/30194; RG/18/13/33946
British Heart Foundation - United Kingdom
RE/18/1/34212
BHF Centre of Research
MR/L003120/1
UK Medical Research Council
National Institute for Health Research
NIHR
BRC-1215-20014
Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre
UK NIHR
British United Provident Association UK Foundation
GlaxoSmithKline
Department of Health and Social Care
2018/29/B/NZ7/02118
National Science Centre
Estonian Research Council
European Union
2014-2020.4.01.15-0012
European Regional Development Fund
High-Performance Computing Center of University of Tartu
PubMed
38752762
DOI
10.1093/eurjpc/zwae174
Knihovny.cz E-zdroje
- MeSH
- časové faktory MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- hodnocení rizik MeSH
- kardiovaskulární nemoci * prevence a kontrola epidemiologie MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- metody pro podporu rozhodování MeSH
- prognóza MeSH
- rizikové faktory kardiovaskulárních chorob * MeSH
- rizikové faktory MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- multicentrická studie MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Evropa MeSH
AIMS: The 2021 European Society of Cardiology prevention guidelines recommend the use of (lifetime) risk prediction models to aid decisions regarding initiation of prevention. We aimed to update and systematically recalibrate the LIFEtime-perspective CardioVascular Disease (LIFE-CVD) model to four European risk regions for the estimation of lifetime CVD risk for apparently healthy individuals. METHODS AND RESULTS: The updated LIFE-CVD (i.e. LIFE-CVD2) models were derived using individual participant data from 44 cohorts in 13 countries (687 135 individuals without established CVD, 30 939 CVD events in median 10.7 years of follow-up). LIFE-CVD2 uses sex-specific functions to estimate the lifetime risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD events with adjustment for the competing risk of non-CVD death and is systematically recalibrated to four distinct European risk regions. The updated models showed good discrimination in external validation among 1 657 707 individuals (61 311 CVD events) from eight additional European cohorts in seven countries, with a pooled C-index of 0.795 (95% confidence interval 0.767-0.822). Predicted and observed CVD event risks were well calibrated in population-wide electronic health records data in the UK (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) and the Netherlands (Extramural LUMC Academic Network). When using LIFE-CVD2 to estimate potential gain in CVD-free life expectancy from preventive therapy, projections varied by risk region reflecting important regional differences in absolute lifetime risk. For example, a 50-year-old smoking woman with a systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 140 mmHg was estimated to gain 0.9 years in the low-risk region vs. 1.6 years in the very high-risk region from lifelong 10 mmHg SBP reduction. The benefit of smoking cessation for this individual ranged from 3.6 years in the low-risk region to 4.8 years in the very high-risk region. CONCLUSION: By taking into account geographical differences in CVD incidence using contemporary representative data sources, the recalibrated LIFE-CVD2 model provides a more accurate tool for the prediction of lifetime risk and CVD-free life expectancy for individuals without previous CVD, facilitating shared decision-making for cardiovascular prevention as recommended by 2021 European guidelines.
Bloomberg School of Public Health Johns Hopkins University Baltimore MD USA
Brigham and Women's Hospital Harvard Medical School Harvard University Boston MA USA
British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre Health Data Research UK London UK
Cardiovascular Health Research Unit University of Washington Seattle WA USA
College of Physicians and Surgeons and Mailman School of Public Health Columbia University NY USA
College of Public Health Department of Epidemiology University of Kentucky KY USA
Columbia University New York NY USA
Department of Cardiology Leiden University Medical Center The Netherlands
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health University College London London UK
Department of Epidemiology Erasmus MC University Medical Center Rotterdam Rotterdam Netherlands
Department of General Practice Amsterdam University Medical Center Amsterdam Netherlands
Department of Medicine Sahlgrenska University Hospital Östra Hospital Gothenburg Sweden
Department of Metabolism Digestion and Reproduction Imperial College London London UK
Department of Pharmacology and Therapeutics University of Liverpool Liverpool UK
Department of Public Health and Primary Care University of Cambridge CambridgeUK
Department of Vascular Medicine University Medical Center Utrecht Utrecht The Netherlands
Estonian Genome Centre Institute of Genomics University of Tartu Tartu Estonia
Faculty of Medicine School of Public Health Imperial College London London UK
Feinstein Institutes for Medical Research Northwell Health New York NY USA
former Istituto Superiore di Sanità Rome Italy
German Centre for Cardiovascular Disease Partner Site Greifswald
German Centre for Cardiovascular Disease Site Greifswald Greifswald Germany
German Centre for Cardiovascular Research partner site Munich Heart Alliance Munich Germany
Harokopio University Athens Greece
Health Campus The Hague Leiden University Medical Center The Hague the Netherlands
Howard University Hospital Washington DC USA
Inserm CNRS UMR 1283 8199 Pasteur Institute of Lille EGID Lille France
Institute of Cardiology Lithuanian University of Health Sciences Kaunas Lithuania
Institute of Health Informatics Research University College London London UK
Institute of Oral Biology Faculty of Dentistry University of Oslo Oslo Norway
Instituto de Investigación Hospital 12 de Octubre Madrid Spain
Instituto de Investigación Hospital 12 de Octubre Universidad Complutense de Madrid Madrid Spain
MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit University of Southampton Southampton UK
National eHealth Living Lab Leiden University Medical Center The Hague the Netherlands
National Institute of Public Health Prague Czech Republic
Netherlands Heart Institute Leiden the Netherlands
Network Aging Research University of Heidelberg Heidelberg Germany
Norwegian Institute of Public Health Oslo Norway
RECETOX Masaryk University Brno Czech Republic
Robertson Center for Biostatistics University of Glasgow Glasgow UK
Sahlgrenska University Hospital and Östra Hospital Göteborg Sweden
School of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Health University of Glasgow Glasgow UK
Université Paris City Paris France
University of Hawaii and Tecnologico de Monterrey Honolulu HI USA
University of Lille Lille France
Victor Phillip Dahdaleh Heart and Lung Research Institute University of Cambridge CambridgeUK
Citace poskytuje Crossref.org
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