Predictability of tick-borne encephalitis fluctuations

. 2017 Oct ; 145 (13) : 2781-2786. [epub] 20170809

Jazyk angličtina Země Velká Británie, Anglie Médium print-electronic

Typ dokumentu časopisecké články

Perzistentní odkaz   https://www.medvik.cz/link/pmid28791941

Tick-borne encephalitis is a serious arboviral infection with unstable dynamics and profound inter-annual fluctuations in case numbers. A dependable predictive model has been sought since the discovery of the disease. The present study demonstrates that four superimposed cycles, approximately 2·4, 3, 5·4, and 10·4 years long, can account for three-fifths of the variation in the disease fluctuations over central Europe. Using harmonic regression, these cycles can be projected into the future, yielding forecasts of sufficient accuracy for up to 4 years ahead. For the years 2016-2018, this model predicts elevated incidence levels in most parts of the region.

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