Species response to climate change is influenced by predictable (selective) and unpredictable (random) evolutionary processes. To understand how climate change will affect present-day species, it is necessary to assess their adaptive potential and distinguish it from the effects of random processes. This will allow predicting how different genotypes will respond to forecasted environmental change. Space for time substitution experiments are an elegant way to test the response of present day populations to climate variation in real time. Here we assess neutral and putatively adaptive variation in 11 populations of Festuca rubra situated along crossed gradients of temperature and moisture using molecular markers and phenotypic measurements, respectively. By comparing population differentiation in putatively neutral molecular markers and phenotypic traits (QST-FST comparisons), we show the existence of adaptive differentiation in phenotypic traits and their plasticity across the climatic gradient. The observed patterns of differentiation are due to the high genotypic and phenotypic differentiation of the populations from the coldest (and wettest) environment. Finally, we observe statistically significant covariation between markers and phenotypic traits, which is likely caused by isolation by adaptation. These results contribute to a better understanding of the current adaptation and evolutionary potential to face climate change of a widespread species. They can also be extrapolated to understand how the studied populations will adjust to upcoming climate change without going through the lengthy process of phenotyping.

Department of Biology and Ecology Faculty of Science University of Ostrava Ostrava Czech Republic

Department of Botany Faculty of Science Charles University Prague Czech Republic

Institute of Botany Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic Průhonice Czech Republic

Scion Whakarewarewa Rotorua New Zealand

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