Chronic hepatitis C in the Czech Republic: Forecasting the disease burden
Language English Country Czech Republic Media print
Document type Journal Article
PubMed
31241282
DOI
10.21101/cejph.a5350
Knihovny.cz E-resources
- Keywords
- Czech Republic, disease burden, epidemiology, hepatitis C,
- MeSH
- Antiviral Agents economics therapeutic use MeSH
- Hepatitis C, Chronic drug therapy economics epidemiology MeSH
- Adult MeSH
- Carcinoma, Hepatocellular epidemiology MeSH
- Liver Cirrhosis epidemiology MeSH
- Middle Aged MeSH
- Humans MeSH
- Adolescent MeSH
- Liver Neoplasms epidemiology MeSH
- Cost of Illness * MeSH
- Prevalence MeSH
- Aged, 80 and over MeSH
- Aged MeSH
- Population Surveillance MeSH
- Liver Transplantation MeSH
- Age Distribution MeSH
- Treatment Outcome MeSH
- Check Tag
- Adult MeSH
- Middle Aged MeSH
- Humans MeSH
- Adolescent MeSH
- Aged, 80 and over MeSH
- Aged MeSH
- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
- Geographicals
- Czech Republic MeSH
- Names of Substances
- Antiviral Agents MeSH
OBJECTIVE: Chronic HCV infection is associated with cirrhosis of the liver, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver transplantation. HCV disease burden and the impact of new potent direct acting antivirals (DAAs) in the Czech Republic are unknown. METHODS: Using a modelling framework, HCV disease progression in the Czech Republic was predicted to 2030 under the current standard of care treatment structure. In addition, two strategies to reduce the future burden of HCV infection were modelled: an incremental increase in treatment annually and WHO targets. RESULTS: The number of viremic infected individuals in the Czech Republic is estimated to peak in 2026 (n = 55,130) and to decline by 0.5% by 2030 (n = 54,840). The number of individuals with compensated cirrhosis (n = 1,400), decompensated cirrhosis (n = 80), HCC (n = 70), and liver-related deaths (n = 60) is estimated to more than double by 2030. Through aggressive increases in diagnosis and treatment, HCV related mortality may decrease by 70% by 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Disease burden associated with chronic HCV infection is projected to peak in the Czech Republic in 30-40 years. Assuming that the current portion of DAAs used remains constant, a significant reduction in HCV disease burden is possible through increased diagnosis and treatment through 2030. This analysis provides evidence in order to facilitate the development of national strategies for HCV care and management in the Czech Republic.
Center for Disease Analysis Lafayette Colorado USA
Clinic of Infectious Diseases University Hospital Brno Masaryk University Brno Czech Republic
References provided by Crossref.org
HCV Elimination in Central Europe with Particular Emphasis on Microelimination in Prisons
Therapy of chronic hepatitis C in people who inject drugs: focus on adherence
How close are we to hepatitis C virus elimination in Central Europe?
