Climate is the dominant control factor on the spatial distribution of organisms on a global scale and global warming is predicted to become a major cause of species extinctions. In our study ecological niche modeling (ENM) was used to estimate the effect of projected future climate changes on the pantropical orchid Polystacha concreta as well as to reconstruct changes in the distribution of the suitable climatic niches of this species since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The study revealed small differences in the niches occupied by populations of P. concreta recorded in various continents; however, these alterations will become more significant in regard to future climatic change. While losses of suitable habitats of the studied orchid will occur in the Americas and Africa, global warming will be favorable for Asian populations. Our study suggests a significant loss of niches since the LGM which indicates that the currently observed loss of habitats is not only the result of human activity but also of natural changes of the Earth's climate. From the obtained models we identified the areas that will be the most resistant regarding the modifications caused by climate change.

Department of Biodiversity Research Global Change Research Institute AS CR Bělidla 4a 603 00 Brno Czech Republic

Department of Geobotany and Plant Ecology Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection University of Lodz Banacha 12 16 90 237 Lodz Poland

Department of Plant Taxonomy and Nature Conservation University of Gdańsk Wita Stwosza 59 80 308 Gdańsk Poland

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