Wildlife conservation policies directed at common and widespread, but declining, species are difficult to design and implement effectively, as multiple environmental changes are likely to contribute to population declines. Conservation actions ultimately aim to influence demographic rates, but targeting actions towards feasible improvements in these is challenging in widespread species with ranges that encompass a wide range of environmental conditions. Across Europe, sharp declines in the abundance of migratory landbirds have driven international calls for action, but actions that could feasibly contribute to population recovery have yet to be identified. Targeted actions to improve conditions on poor-quality sites could be an effective approach, but only if local conditions consistently influence local demography and hence population trends. Using long-term measures of abundance and demography of breeding birds at survey sites across Europe, we show that co-occurring species with differing migration behaviours have similar directions of local population trends and magnitudes of productivity, but not survival rates. Targeted actions to boost local productivity within Europe, alongside large-scale (non-targeted) environmental protection across non-breeding ranges, could therefore help address the urgent need to halt migrant landbird declines. Such demographic routes to recovery are likely to be increasingly needed to address global wildlife declines.

Bird Ringing Centre National Museum Hornoměcholupská 34 CZ 10200 Praha 10 Czech Republic

BirdLife Norway Sandgata 30B 7012 Trondheim Norway

BirdLife Österreich Museumsplatz 1 10 7 8 A 1070 Wien Austria

British Trust for Ornithology The Nunnery Thetford IP24 2PU UK

Catalan Ornithological Institute Nat Museu de Ciències Naturals de Barcelona Pl Leonardo da Vinci 4 5 08019 Barcelona Spain

Center for Macroecology Evolution and Climate Natural History Museum of Denmark University of Copenhagen Universitetsparken 15 DK 2100 Copenhagen Denmark

Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation UMR 7204 Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle Paris France

Czech Society for Ornithology Na Belidle 34 150 00 Praha 5 Czech Republic

Dansk Ornitologisk Forening BirdLife Denmark Vesterbrogade 138 140 DK 1620 København 5 Denmark

Department of Animal Ecology and Physiology Institute for Water and Wetland Research Radboud University PO Box 9010 6500 GL Nijmegen The Netherlands

Department of Biology Lund University Lund Sweden

Department of Ornithology Aranzadi Sciences Society Zorroagagaina 11 E20014 Donostia Spain

Department of Zoology and Animal Ecology Faculty of Biology University of Latvia Jelgavas iela 1 Riga LV 1004 Latvia

Department of Zoology and Laboratory of Ornithology Faculty of Science Palacky University 771 46 Olomouc Czech Republic

Estudio y Seguimiento de Aves SEO BirdLife Melquíades Biencinto Madrid Spain

Finnish Museum of Natural History FI 00014 University of Helsinki PO Box 17 Finland

Finnish Museum of Natural History LUOMUS PO Box 17 FI 00014 University of Helsinki Finland

Institute for Environmental Studies Faculty of Science Charles University Prague Benatska 2 128 01 Praha 2 Czech Republic

Latvian Ornithological Society Skolas iela 3 Riga LV 1010 Latvia

MME BirdLife Hungary Monitoring Centre H 4401 Nyiregyháza 1 PO Box 286 Hungary

Museum and Institute of Zoology Polish Academy of Sciences Wilcza 64 00 679 Warszawa Poland

Nord University Røstad 7600 Levanger Norway

Norwegian Institute for Nature Research PO Box 5685 Torgarden NO 7485 Trondheim Norway

Pan European Common Bird Monitoring Scheme Czech Society for Ornithology Na Bělidle CZ 150 00 Prague 5 Czech Republic

Polish Society for the Protection of Birds Odrowaza 24 05 270 Marki Poland

RSPB Centre for Conservation Science The Lodge Sandy SG19 2DL UK

School of Biological Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich Research Park Norwich NR4 7TJ UK

SEO BirdLife Ciencia Ciudadana C Melquiades Biencinto 34 28053 Madrid Spain

Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology PO Box 6521 6503 GA Nijmegen The Netherlands

Swedish Museum of Natural History Bird Ringing Centre Box 50007 S 104 05 Stockholm Sweden

Swiss Ornithological Institute Seerose 1 CH 6204 Sempach Switzerland

University of Nyíregyháza and MME BirdLife Hungary Nyíregyháza Hungary

Zobrazit více v PubMed

Johnson CN, Balmford A, Brook BW, Buettel JC, Galetti M, Guangchun L, Wilmshurst JM. 2017. Biodiversity losses and conservation responses in the Anthropocene. Science 356, 270-275. (10.1126/science.aam9317) PubMed DOI

Batáry P, Dicks LV, Kleijn D, Sutherland WJ. 2015. The role of agri-environment schemes in conservation and environmental management. Conserv. Biol. 29, 1006-1016. (10.1111/cobi.12536) PubMed DOI PMC

Butler SJ, Boccaccio L, Gregory RD, Vorisek P, Norris K. 2010. Quantifying the impact of land-use change to European farmland bird populations. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 137, 348-357. (10.1016/j.agee.2010.03.005) DOI

Robinson RA, Morrison CA, Baillie SR. 2014. Integrating demographic data: towards a framework for monitoring wildlife populations at large spatial scales. Methods Ecol. Evol. 5, 1361-1372. (10.1111/2041-210X.12204) DOI

Morrison CA, Robinson RA, Butler SJ, Clark JA, Gill JA. 2016. Demographic drivers of decline and recovery in an Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird population. Proc. R. Soc. B 283, 20161387. (10.1098/rspb.2016.1387) PubMed DOI PMC

Díaz S, et al. . 2019. IPBES. Summary for policymakers of the global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services of the intergovernmental science-policy platform on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Bonn, Germany: IPBES Secretariat.

Vickery JA, Ewing SR, Smith KW, Pain DJ, Bairlein F, Å Korpilovã¡ J, Gregory RD. 2014. The decline of Afro-Palaearctic migrants and an assessment of potential causes. Ibis 156, 1-22. (10.1111/ibi.12118) DOI

Burfield IJ, van Bommel FPJ. 2004. Birds in Europe: population estimates, trends and conservation status. Cambridge, UK: BirdLife International.

Sanderson FJ, Donald PF, Pain DJ, Burfield IJ, van Bommel FPJ. 2006. Long-term population declines in Afro-Palearctic migrant birds. Biol. Conserv. 131, 93-105. (10.1016/j.biocon.2006.02.008) DOI

Hewson CM, Noble DG. 2009. Population trends of breeding birds in British woodlands over a 32-year period: relationships with food, habitat use and migratory behaviour. Ibis 151, 464-486. (10.1111/j.1474-919X.2009.00937.x) DOI

Thaxter CB, Joys AC, Gregory RD, Baillie SR, Noble DG. 2010. Hypotheses to explain patterns of population change among breeding bird species in England. Biol. Conserv. 143, 2006-2019. (10.1016/j.biocon.2010.05.004) DOI

Ockendon N, Hewson CM, Johnston A, Atkinson PW. 2012. Declines in British-breeding populations of Afro-Palaearctic migrant birds are linked to bioclimatic wintering zone in Africa, possibly via constraints on arrival time advancement. Bird Study 59, 111-125. (10.1080/00063657.2011.645798) DOI

Morrison CA, Robinson RA, Clark JA, Risely K, Gill JA. 2013. Recent population declines in Afro-Palaearctic migratory birds: the influence of breeding and non-breeding seasons. Divers. Distrib. 19, 1051-1058. (10.1111/ddi.12084) DOI

Robinson RA, Meier CM, Witvliet W, Kéry M, Schaub M. 2020. Survival varies seasonally in a migratory bird: linkages between breeding and non-breeding periods. J. Anim. Ecol. 89, 2111-2121. (10.1111/1365-2656.13250) PubMed DOI

Wilson S, Saracco JF, Krikun R, Flockhart DTT, Godwin CM, Foster KR. 2018. Drivers of demographic decline across the annual cycle of a threatened migratory bird. Sci. Rep. 8, 1-11. (10.1038/s41598-017-17765-5) PubMed DOI PMC

Gregory RD, Van Strien A, Vorisek P, Gmelig Meyling AW, Noble DG, Foppen RPB, Gibbons DW. 2005. Developing indicators for European birds. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 360, 269-288. (10.1098/rstb.2004.1602) PubMed DOI PMC

R Core Development Team. 2014. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.

Robinson RA, Julliard R, Saracco JF. 2009. Constant effort: studying avian population processes using standardised ringing. Ringing Migr. 24, 199-204. (10.1080/03078698.2009.9674392) DOI

Bates D, Maechler M, Bolker B, Walker S, Christensen RH, Singmann H, Dai B, Scheipl F. 2014. Package ‘lme4’. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.

Hewson CM, Thorup K, Pearce-Higgins JW, Atkinson PW. 2016. Population decline is linked to migration route in the common cuckoo. Nat. Commun. 7, 12296. (10.1038/ncomms12296) PubMed DOI PMC

Norris DR, Marra PP, Kyser TK, Sherry TW, Ratcliffe LM. 2004. Tropical winter habitat limits reproductive success on the temperate breeding grounds in a migratory bird. Proc. R. Soc. B 271, 59-64. (10.1098/rspb.2003.2569) PubMed DOI PMC

Hoffmann J, Postma E, Schaub M. 2015. Factors influencing double brooding in Eurasian hoopoes Upupa epops. Ibis 157, 17-30. (10.1111/ibi.12188) DOI

Finch T, Butler SJ, Franco AMA, Cresswell W. 2017. Low migratory connectivity is common in long-distance migrant birds. J. Anim. Ecol. 86, 662-673. (10.1111/1365-2656.12635) PubMed DOI

Lerche-Jørgensen M, Willemoes M, Tøttrup AP, Snell KRS, Thorup K. 2017. No apparent gain from continuing migration for more than 3000 kilometres: willow warblers breeding in Denmark winter across the entire northern savannah as revealed by geolocators. Mov. Ecol. 5, 1-7. (10.1186/s40462-017-0109-x) PubMed DOI PMC

Newton I. 2008. The migration ecology of birds. New York, NY: Academic Press.

Taylor CM, Stutchbury BJM. 2016. Effects of breeding versus winter habitat loss and fragmentation on the population dynamics of a migratory songbird. Ecol. Appl. 26, 424-437. (10.1890/14-1410) PubMed DOI

Mihoub J-B, Gimenez O, Pilard P, Sarrazin F. 2010. Challenging conservation of migratory species: Sahelian rainfalls drive first-year survival of the vulnerable lesser kestrel Falco naumanni. Biol. Conserv. 143, 839-847. (10.1016/j.biocon.2009.12.026) DOI

Newton I. 2007. Weather-related mass-mortality events in migrants. Ibis 149, 453-467. (10.1111/j.1474-919X.2007.00704.x) DOI

Morrison CA, Robinson RA, Clark JA, Gill JA. 2016. Causes and consequences of spatial variation in sex ratios in a declining bird species. J. Anim. Ecol. 85, 1298-1306. (10.1111/1365-2656.12556) PubMed DOI PMC

Winiarski JM, Moorman CE, Carpenter JP, Hess GR. 2017. Reproductive consequences of habitat fragmentation for a declining resident bird of the longleaf pine ecosystem. Ecosphere 8, e01898. (10.1002/ecs2.1898) DOI

Brickle NW, Harper DGC, Aebischer NJ, Cockayne SH. 2001. Effects of agricultural intensification on the breeding success of corn buntings Miliaria calandra. J. Appl. Ecol. 37, 742-755. (10.1046/j.1365-2664.2000.00542.x) DOI

Pellissier V, Touroult J, Julliard R, Siblet JP, Jiguet F. 2013. Assessing the Natura 2000 network with a common breeding birds survey. Anim. Conserv. 16, 566-574. (10.1111/acv.12030) DOI

Morrison CA, et al. . 2021. Data from: Covariation in population trends and demography reveals targets for conservation action. Dryad Digital Repository. (10.5061/dryad.76hdr7svs) PubMed DOI PMC

Demographic variation in space and time: implications for conservation targeting

Covariation in population trends and demography reveals targets for conservation action

Zobrazit více v PubMed

Dryad
10.5061/dryad.76hdr7svs

figshare
10.6084/m9.figshare.c.5309947