Dactylorhiza hatagirea is a terrestrial orchid listed in Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) and classified as threatened by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). It is endemic to the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region, distributed from Pakistan to China. The main threat to its existence is climate change and the associated change in the distribution of its suitable habitats to higher altitudes due to increasing temperature. It is therefore necessary to determine the habitats that are suitable for its survival and their expected distribution after the predicted changes in climate. To do this, we use Maxent modelling of the data for its 208 locations. We predict its distribution in 2050 and 2070 using four climate change models and two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. This revealed severe losses of suitable habitat in Nepal, in which, under the worst scenario, there will be a 71-81% reduction the number of suitable locations for D. hatagirea by 2050 and 95-98% by 2070. Under the most favorable scenario, this reduction will be 65-85% by 2070. The intermediate greenhouse gas concentration trajectory surprisingly would result in a greater reduction by 2070 than the worst-case scenario. Our results provide important guidelines that local authorities interested in conserving this species could use to select areas that need to be protected now and in the future.

Central Department of Botany Tribhuvan University Kirtipur 44618 Nepal

Chitwan National Park Department of National Parks and Wildlife Conservation Government of Nepal Ministry of Forests and Environment Kathmandu 44600 Nepal

Department of Biodiversity Research Global Change Research Institute CAS Bělidla 986 4a 603 00 Brno Czech Republic

Department of Food and Resource Economics University of Copenhagen 1165 Copenhagen Denmark

Department of Forest and Natural Environment Sciences International Hellenic University GR 66100 Drama Greece

Department of Geobotany and Plant Ecology Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection University of Lodz Banacha 12 16 90 237 Lodz Poland

Institute for Environmental Studies Faculty of Science Charles University Benátská 2 128 01 Prague Czech Republic

Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China

Natural Product Chemistry School of Health and Allied Sciences Pokhara University Pokhara 33700 Nepal

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