BACKGROUND: Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a rare but fatal cancer, which is largely caused by exposure to asbestos. Reliable information about the incidence of MPM prior the influence of asbestos is lacking. The nationwide regional incidence trends for MPM remain poorly characterized. We use nationwide MPM data for Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO) and Sweden (SE) to assess incidence, mortality and survival trends for MPM in these countries. METHODS: We use the NORDCAN database for the analyses: incidence data were available from 1943 in DK, 1953 in FI and NO and 1958 in SE, through 2016. Survival data were available from 1967 through 2016. World standard population was used in age standardization. RESULTS: The lowest incidence that we recorded for MPM was 0.02/100,000 for NO women and 0.05/100,000 for FI men in 1953-57, marking the incidence before the influence of asbestos. The highest rate of 1.9/100,000 was recorded for DK in 1997. Female incidence was much lower than male incidence. In each country, the male incidence trend for MPM culminated, first in SE around 1990. The regional incidence trends matched with earlier asbestos-related industrial activity, shipbuilding in FI and SE, cement manufacturing and shipbuilding in DK and seafaring in NO. Relative 1-year survival increased from about 20 to 50% but 5-year survival remained at or below 10%. CONCLUSION: In the Nordic countries, the male incidence trends for MPM climaxed and started to decrease, indicating that the prevention of exposure was beneficial. Survival in MPM has improved for both sexes but long-term survival remains dismal.

Biomedical Center Faculty of Medicine and Biomedical Center in Pilsen Charles University Prague 30605 Pilsen Czech Republic

Cancer Gene Therapy Group Translational Immunology Research Program University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland

Comprehensive Cancer Center Helsinki University Hospital Helsinki Finland

Department of Cancer Prevention Zhejiang Cancer Institute Cancer Hospital of the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Basic Medicine and Cancer Chinese Academy of Sciences Hangzhou 310022 China

Division of Cancer Epidemiology German Cancer Research Center Im Neuenheimer Feld 580 D 69120 Heidelberg Germany

Division of Pediatric Neurooncology German Cancer Research Center Heidelberg Germany

Hopp Children's Cancer Center Heidelberg Germany

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