Epidemiological analyses of health risks associated with non-optimal temperature are traditionally based on ground observations from weather stations that offer limited spatial and temporal coverage. Climate reanalysis represents an alternative option that provide complete spatio-temporal exposure coverage, and yet are to be systematically explored for their suitability in assessing temperature-related health risks at a global scale. Here we provide the first comprehensive analysis over multiple regions to assess the suitability of the most recent generation of reanalysis datasets for health impact assessments and evaluate their comparative performance against traditional station-based data. Our findings show that reanalysis temperature from the last ERA5 products generally compare well to station observations, with similar non-optimal temperature-related risk estimates. However, the analysis offers some indication of lower performance in tropical regions, with a likely underestimation of heat-related excess mortality. Reanalysis data represent a valid alternative source of exposure variables in epidemiological analyses of temperature-related risk.

Air Health Science Division Health Canada Ottawa ON Canada

Center for Global Health School of Public Health Nanjing Medical University Nanjing China

Centre for Statistical Methodology London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine London UK

CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública Madrid Spain

Climate Air Quality Research Unit School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine Monash University Melbourne Australia

Department of Economics Ca' Foscari University of Venice Venice Italy

Department of Environmental Health Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge Porto Portugal

Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine Monash University Melbourne Australia

Department of Family Medicine and Public Health University of Tartu Tartu Estonia

Department of Geography University of Santiago de Compostela Santiago de Compostela Spain

Department of Public Health Environments and Society London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine London UK

Department of Statistics Computer Science and Applications 'G Parenti' University of Florence Florence Italy

EPIUnit Instituto de Saúde Pública Universidade do Porto Porto Portugal

Faculty of Environmental Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Czech Republic

Faculty of Medicine University of São Paulo São Paulo Brazil

Forecast Department European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast Reading UK

Graduate School of Health Science University of Bern Bern Switzerland

Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences Prague Czech Republic

Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research Barcelona Spain

Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine University of Bern Bern Switzerland

Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research University of Bern Bern Switzerland

Santé Publique France Department of Environmental and Occupational Health French National Public Health Agency Saint Maurice France

School of Epidemiology and Public Health University of Ottawa Ottawa ON Canada

School of Public Health and Social Work Queensland University of Technology Brisbane QLD Australia

School of Public Health Institute of Environment and Population Health Anhui Medical University Hefei China

School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health Nagasaki University Nagasaki Japan

Shanghai Children's Medical Center Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine Shanghai China

The Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine London UK

The Joint Research Center European Commission Ispra Italy

The Joint Research Center European Commission Seville Spain

Ф Lab European Space Agency Frascati Italy

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Sci Rep. 2022 May 13;12(1):7960. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-11769-6. PubMed

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Regional variation in the role of humidity on city-level heat-related mortality

Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat-related mortality varies from country to country