Phylogenetic risk assessment is robust for forecasting the impact of European insects on North American conifers
Language English Country United States Media print-electronic
Document type Journal Article, Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't, Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
PubMed
36218183
DOI
10.1002/eap.2761
Knihovny.cz E-resources
- Keywords
- conifer, herbivore, invasive species, phylogeny, risk analysis,
- MeSH
- Tracheophyta * MeSH
- Ecosystem * MeSH
- Phylogeny MeSH
- Insecta MeSH
- Plants MeSH
- Introduced Species MeSH
- Animals MeSH
- Check Tag
- Animals MeSH
- Publication type
- Journal Article MeSH
- Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't MeSH
- Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. MeSH
Some introduced species cause severe damage, although the majority have little impact. Robust predictions of which species are most likely to cause substantial impacts could focus efforts to mitigate those impacts or prevent certain invasions entirely. Introduced herbivorous insects can reduce crop yield, fundamentally alter natural and managed forest ecosystems, and are unique among invasive species in that they require certain host plants to succeed. Recent studies have demonstrated that understanding the evolutionary history of introduced herbivores and their host plants can provide robust predictions of impact. Specifically, divergence times between hosts in the native and introduced ranges of a nonnative insect can be used to predict the potential impact of the insect should it establish in a novel ecosystem. However, divergence time estimates vary among published phylogenetic datasets, making it crucial to understand if and how the choice of phylogeny affects prediction of impact. Here, we tested the robustness of impact prediction to variation in host phylogeny by using insects that feed on conifers and predicting the likelihood of high impact using four different published phylogenies. Our analyses ranked 62 insects that are not established in North America and 47 North American conifer species according to overall risk and vulnerability, respectively. We found that results were robust to the choice of phylogeny. Although published vascular plant phylogenies continue to be refined, our analysis indicates that those differences are not substantial enough to alter the predictions of invader impact. Our results can assist in focusing biosecurity programs for conifer pests and can be more generally applied to nonnative insects and their potential hosts by prioritizing surveillance for those insects most likely to be damaging invaders.
D B Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources University of Georgia Athens Georgia USA
Department of Biological Sciences Arkansas State University Jonesboro Arkansas USA
Department of Biological Sciences Dartmouth College Hanover New Hampshire USA
Department of Entomology University of Wisconsin Madison Wisconsin USA
Department of Forestry Mississippi State University Starkville Mississippi USA
Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Prague Czech Republic
Northern Research Station USDA Forest Service Hamden Connecticut USA
School of Biology and Ecology University of Maine Orono Maine USA
School of Environmental and Forest Sciences University of Washington Seattle Washington USA
The Davey Tree Expert Company Kent Ohio USA
U S Geological Survey Southwest Biological Science Center Tucson Arizona USA
USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station Morgantown West Virginia USA
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