Destabilization of the water cycle threatens human lives and livelihoods. Meanwhile our understanding of whether and how changes in vegetation cover could trigger transitions in moisture availability remains incomplete. This challenge calls for better evidence as well as for the theoretical concepts to describe it. Here we briefly summarize the theoretical questions surrounding the role of vegetation cover in the dynamics of a moist atmosphere. We discuss the previously unrecognized sensitivity of local wind power to condensation rate as revealed by our analysis of the continuity equation for a gas mixture. Using the framework of condensation-induced atmospheric dynamics, we then show that with the temperature contrast between land and ocean increasing up to a critical threshold, ocean-to-land moisture transport reaches a tipping point where it can stop or even reverse. Land-ocean temperature contrasts are affected by both global and regional processes, in particular, by the surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat that are strongly influenced by vegetation. Our results clarify how a disturbance of natural vegetation cover, e.g., by deforestation, can disrupt large-scale atmospheric circulation and moisture transport: an increase of sensible heat flux upon deforestation raises land surface temperature and this can elevate the temperature difference between land and ocean beyond the threshold. In view of the increasing pressure on natural ecosystems, successful strategies of mitigating climate change require taking into account the impact of vegetation on moist atmospheric dynamics. Our analysis provides a theoretical framework to assess this impact. The available data for the Northern Hemisphere indicate that the observed climatological land-ocean temperature contrasts are close to the threshold. This can explain the increasing fluctuations in the continental water cycle including droughts and floods and signifies a yet greater potential importance for large-scale forest conservation.

Center for International Forestry Research Kota Bogor 16115 Jawa Barat Indonesia

Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies INPE São José dos Campos São Paulo 12227 010 Brazil

Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre INPE São José dos Campos São Paulo 12227 010 Brazil

ENKI o p s Dukelská 145 Třeboň 379 01 Czech Republic

Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management Norwegian University of Life Sciences Ås Norway

Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group Wageningen University and Research PO Box 47 Wageningen 6700 AA the Netherlands

Institute for Advanced Study Technical University of Munich Lichtenbergstrasse 2 a Garching D 85748 Germany

Theoretical Physics Division Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute Gatchina St Petersburg 188300 Russia

USDA China MOST Joint Research Center for AgroEcology and Sustainability University of California Riverside CA 92521 0124 USA

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