Despite growing interest in predicting plant phenological shifts, advanced spring phenology by global climate change remains debated. Evidence documenting either small or large advancement of spring phenology to rising temperature over the spatio-temporal scales implies a potential existence of a thermal threshold in the responses of forests to global warming. We collected a unique data set of xylem cell-wall-thickening onset dates in 20 coniferous species covering a broad mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient (-3.05 to 22.9°C) across the Northern Hemisphere (latitudes 23°-66° N). Along the MAT gradient, we identified a threshold temperature (using segmented regression) of 4.9 ± 1.1°C, above which the response of xylem phenology to rising temperatures significantly decline. This threshold separates the Northern Hemisphere conifers into cold and warm thermal niches, with MAT and spring forcing being the primary drivers for the onset dates (estimated by linear and Bayesian mixed-effect models), respectively. The identified thermal threshold should be integrated into the Earth-System-Models for a better understanding of spring phenology in response to global warming and an improved prediction of global climate-carbon feedbacks.

AGRARIA Department Mediterranean University of Reggio Calabria Reggio Calabria Italy

Biotechnical Faculty University of Ljubljana Ljubljana Slovenia

CAS Key Laboratory of Tropical Forest Ecology Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden Chinese Academy of Sciences Mengla Yunnan China

Centre for Functional Ecology Department of Life Sciences University of Coimbra Coimbra Portugal

CNR Istituto di Ricerca sugli Ecosistemi Terrestri IRET Sesto Fiorentino Italy

Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Department of Agricultural Sciences University of Naples Federico 2 Portici Napoli Italy

Department of Botany Leopold Franzens University of Innsbruck Innsbruck Austria

Department of Ecology School of Life Sciences State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol Sun Yat sen University Guangzhou China

Department of Forest Ecology Silva Tarouca Research Institute for Landscape and Ornamental Gardening Průhonice Czech Republic

Department of Forests Natural Resources Institute Finland Espoo Finland

Department of Geography and Regional Planning Environmental Science Institute University of Zaragoza Zaragoza Spain

Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology Charles University Prague Czech Republic

Department of Sciences University of Alberta Camrose Alberta Canada

Department of Wood Science and Wood Technology Mendel University in Brno Brno Czech Republic

Dipartimento di Agricoltura Ambiente e Alimenti Università degli Studi del Molise Campobasso Italy

Forest Research Institute Université du Quebec en Abitibi Témiscamingue Rouyn Noranda Quebec Canada

IGN Direction Interrégionale NordEst Champigneulles France

Institute of Botany University of Hohenheim Stuttgart Germany

Institute of Economics and Trade Siberian Federal University Krasnoyarsk Russia

Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología Zaragoza Spain

Izmir Katip Çelebi University Faculty of Forestry Izmir Turkey

Key Lab of Guangdong for Utilization of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application Guangzhou Institute of Geography Guangzhou China

Key Laboratory of Aquatic Botany and Watershed Ecology Wuhan Botanical Garden Chinese Academy of Sciences Wuhan China

Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystems Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Applied Botany South China Botanical Garden Chinese Academy of Sciences Guangzhou China

Laboratoire sur les écosystèmes terrestres boréaux Département des Sciences Fondamentales Université du Québec à Chicoutimi Chicoutimi Quebec Canada

Laboratory of Plant Ecology Department of Plants and Crops Faculty of Bioscience Engineering Ghent University Ghent Belgium

MOE Key Laboratory of Biosystems Homeostasis and Protection College of Life Sciences Zhejiang University Hangzhou China

School of Engineering and Built Environment Griffith University Brisbane Australia

Slovenian Forestry Institute Ljubljana Slovenia

South China National Botanical Garden Guangzhou China

State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Environment and Resources Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China

Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL Birmensdorf Switzerland

The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology Institute of Earth Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Xi'an China

Université de Lorraine AgroParisTech INRAE Silva Nancy France

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