This paper investigates changes in political participation following a disaster. Drawing on the electoral results and flood declarations after the 2010 flood in Slovakia, a dataset was constructed that illustrates when and how often each municipality was affected by disastrous conditions before the elections. The analysis revealed that experiencing a flood significantly increased the level of political participation in a municipality. However, the effect of flooding on elections is conditional. First, significantly higher turnout occurs only when a flood affects the municipality on election day. Second, repeated flooding before the elections does not change the overall participation rate. In contrast, it is the one-time, continuous extreme weather event that most mobilises voters. Third, only severely affected municipalities demonstrated a significant turnout effect. Lastly, the timing variable is crucial in determining the impact of repetition and severity. This paper distinguishes between different kinds of flood events that can influence disaster behaviour.

يوجد وفرة من البيانات غير المنظمة والمنظمة تنظيماً فضفاضاً عن الكوارث والتي يمكن تحليلها باستخدام الطرق الشبكية. تلخص هذه الورقة استخدام البيانات النوعية في التحليل الكمي للشبكات الاجتماعية في أبحاث الكوارث. نناقش نوعين من الشبكات، لكل منهما موضوع رئيسي ذو صلة في أبحاث الكوارث (على سبيل المثال نهج الشبكة الكاملة لشبكات إدارة الطوارئ ونهج الشبكة الشخصية للدعم الاجتماعي للناجين) وأربعة أشكال قابلة للاستخدام من البيانات النوعية. نوضح خمس فرص تتيحها هذه الأساليب تدور حول مرونتها وقدرتها على حساب هياكل الشبكات المعقدة. ثم نقدم بعد ذلك توضيحاً تجريبياً يوسع عملنا السابق الذي يدرس مصادر الدعم وأنواعه والحواجز الذي تعاني منها الأسر خلال التعافي طويل الأمد من العاصفة العاتية ساندي، حيث استخدمنا التحليل الكمي للشبكة الاجتماعية على مجموعتين من البيانات النوعية (لي وآخرون، 2020). نناقش ثلاثة تحديات لهذه الأساليب المتعلقة بالعينات والترميز والتحيز. الكلمات المفتاحية: الكوارث، بيانات نوعية، تحليلات كمية، طرق البحث، تحليل الشبكات الاجتماعية.

Associate Professor Faculty of Social Studies Masaryk University Czech Republic

Researcher Faculty of Social Studies Masaryk University Czech Republic

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