A recent rise in the global brewery sector has increased the demand for high-quality, late summer hops. The effects of ongoing and predicted climate change on the yield and aroma of hops, however, remain largely unknown. Here, we combine meteorological measurements and model projections to assess the climate sensitivity of the yield, alpha content and cone development of European hops between 1970 and 2050 CE, when temperature increases by 1.4 °C and precipitation decreases by 24 mm. Accounting for almost 90% of all hop-growing regions, our results from Germany, the Czech Republic and Slovenia show that hop ripening started approximately 20 days earlier, production declined by almost 0.2 t/ha/year, and the alpha content decreased by circa 0.6% when comparing data before and after 1994 CE. A predicted decline in hop yield and alpha content of 4-18% and 20-31% by 2050 CE, respectively, calls for immediate adaptation measures to stabilize an ever-growing global sector.

Czech Hydrometeorological Institute 14306 Prague Czechia

Czech University of Life Sciences Prague 16500 Prague Czechia

Department of Geography Faculty of Science Masaryk University 61300 Brno Czechia

Department of Geography University of Cambridge Cambridge CB23EN UK

Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology Faculty of Science Charles University 12800 Prague Czechia

Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences 60300 Brno Czechia

Rothamsted Research Station Harpenden AL52JQ UK

Swiss Federal Research Institute 8903 Birmensdorf Switzerland

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Climate-induced decline in the quality and quantity of European hops calls for immediate adaptation measures

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