Understanding what controls global leaf type variation in trees is crucial for comprehending their role in terrestrial ecosystems, including carbon, water and nutrient dynamics. Yet our understanding of the factors influencing forest leaf types remains incomplete, leaving us uncertain about the global proportions of needle-leaved, broadleaved, evergreen and deciduous trees. To address these gaps, we conducted a global, ground-sourced assessment of forest leaf-type variation by integrating forest inventory data with comprehensive leaf form (broadleaf vs needle-leaf) and habit (evergreen vs deciduous) records. We found that global variation in leaf habit is primarily driven by isothermality and soil characteristics, while leaf form is predominantly driven by temperature. Given these relationships, we estimate that 38% of global tree individuals are needle-leaved evergreen, 29% are broadleaved evergreen, 27% are broadleaved deciduous and 5% are needle-leaved deciduous. The aboveground biomass distribution among these tree types is approximately 21% (126.4 Gt), 54% (335.7 Gt), 22% (136.2 Gt) and 3% (18.7 Gt), respectively. We further project that, depending on future emissions pathways, 17-34% of forested areas will experience climate conditions by the end of the century that currently support a different forest type, highlighting the intensification of climatic stress on existing forests. By quantifying the distribution of tree leaf types and their corresponding biomass, and identifying regions where climate change will exert greatest pressure on current leaf types, our results can help improve predictions of future terrestrial ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling.

5 N Sukachev Institute of Forest FRC KSC Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences Krasnoyarsk Russian Federation

Agricultural High School ESAV Polytechnic Institute of Viseu IPV Viseu Portugal

AgroParisTech UMR AMAP Cirad CNRS INRA IRD Université de Montpellier Montpellier France

AMAP Univ Montpellier CIRAD CNRS INRAE IRD Montpellier France

AMAP Univ Montpellier Montpellier France

Andes to Amazon Biodiversity Program Madre de Dios Peru

Bavarian State Institute of Forestry Freising Germany

Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg Austria

Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences Institute of Entomology Ceske Budejovice Czech Republic

Biology Department Centre for Structural and Functional Genomics Concordia University Montreal Quebec Canada

Botanical Garden of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences Ural State Forest Engineering University Yekaterinburg Russian Federation

CAVElab Computational and Applied Vegetation Ecology Department of Environment Ghent University Ghent Belgium

Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World Department of Biology Aarhus University Aarhus Denmark

Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere Department of Biology Aarhus University Aarhus C Denmark

Center for Forest Ecology and Productivity Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow Russian Federation

Center for Natural Climate Solutions Conservation International Arlington VA USA

Center for Tropical Research Institute of the Environment and Sustainability UCLA Los Angeles CA USA

Centre for Agricultural Research in Suriname Paramaribo Suriname

Centre for Conservation Science The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds Sandy UK

Centre for Forest Research Université du Québec à Montréal Montréal Québec Canada

Centre for Invasion Biology Department of Mathematical Sciences Stellenbosch University Stellenbosch South Africa

Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro Environmental and Biological Sciences CITAB UTAD Quinta de Prados Vila Real Portugal

Centro Agricoltura Alimenti Ambiente University of Trento San Michele All'adige Italy

Centro de Ciências Biológicas e da Natureza Universidade Federal do Acre Rio Branco Acre Brazil

Centro de Modelación y Monitoreo de Ecosistemas Universidad Mayor Santiago Chile

Centro Multidisciplinar Universidade Federal do Acre Rio Branco Brazil

Chair for Forest Growth and Yield Science Department of Life Science Systems TUM School for Life Sciences Technical University of Munich Freising Germany

Chair of Crop Science and Plant Biology Estonian University of Life Sciences Tartu Estonia

CIRAD CNRS INRAE IRD Montpellier France

Cirad UMR EcoFoG Campus Agronomique Kourou French Guiana

Cirad UPR Forêts et Sociétés University of Montpellier Montpellier France

Climate Fire and Carbon Cycle Sciences USDA Forest Service Durham NC USA

Colegio de Profesionales Forestales de Cochabamba Cochabamba Bolivia

Compensation International S A Ci Progress GreenLife Bogotá D C Colombia

CTFS ForestGEO Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute Balboa Panama

Departamento de Biología Universidad de la Serena La Serena Chile

Departamento de Ciências Biológicas Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso Nova Xavantina Brazil

Departamento de Ecologia Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte Natal Rio Grande do Norte Brazil

Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales Facultad de Ciencias Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Mexico City Mexico

Departamento de Silvicultura y Conservación de la Naturaleza Universidad de Chile Temuco Chile

Department of Agricultural and Forest Sciences and Engineering University of Lleida Lleida Spain

Department of Agricultural Food Environmental and Animal Sciences University of Udine Udine Italy

Department of Agriculture Food Environment and Forest University of Firenze Florence Italy

Department of Agriculture Forestry and Bioresources Seoul National University Seoul South Korea

Department of Biological Geological and Environmental Sciences University of Bologna Bologna Italy

Department of Biology Stanford University Stanford CA USA

Department of Biology University of Florence Florence Italy

Department of Biology University of Missouri St Louis St Louis MO USA

Department of Biology University of Oxford Oxford UK

Department of Biology Washington University Saint Louis MO USA

Department of Biology West Virginia University Morgantown WV USA

Department of Botany Dr Harisingh Gour Vishwavidyalaya Sagar India

Department of Botany Faculty of Science University of South Bohemia České Budějovice Czech Republic

Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences Pondicherry University Puducherry India

Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Arizona Tucson AZ USA

Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Connecticut Storrs CT USA

Department of Environment and Development Studies United International University Dhaka Bangladesh

Department of Environment and Geography University of York York UK

Department of Environmental Sciences Central University of Jharkhand Ranchi Jharkhand India

Department of Evolutionary Anthropology Duke University Durham NC USA

Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies University of Zürich Zurich Switzerland

Department of Forest and Wood Science University of Stellenbosch Stellenbosch South Africa

Department of Forest Engineering Universidade Regional de Blumenau Blumenau Brazil

Department of Forest Management Dendrometry and Forest Economics Warsaw University of Life Sciences Warsaw Poland

Department of Forest Resource Management Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences SLU Umea Sweden

Department of Forest Resources University of Minnesota St Paul MN USA

Department of Forest Science Tokyo University of Agriculture Tokyo Japan

Department of Forest Sciences Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture University of São Paulo Piracicaba Brazil

Department of Forestry and Environment National Polytechnic Institute Yamoussoukro Côte d'Ivoire

Department of Forestry and Natural Resources Purdue University West Lafayette IN USA

Department of Game Management and Forest Protection Poznań University of Life Sciences Poznań Poland

Department of Genetics Evolution and Environment University College London London United Kingdom

Department of Geography Environment and Geomatics University of Guelph Guelph Ontario Canada

Department of Geography Remote Sensing Laboratories University of Zürich Zurich Switzerland

Department of Geography University College London London UK

Department of Geomatics Forest Research Institute Raszyn Poland

Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management University of Copenhagen Copenhagen Denmark

Department of Natural Sciences Manchester Metropolitan University Manchester UK

Department of Physical and Biological Sciences The College of Saint Rose Albany NY USA

Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences Colorado Mesa University Grand Junction CO USA

Department of Plant Biology Institute of Biology University of Campinas UNICAMP Campinas Brazil

Department of Plant Sciences and Conservation Research Institute University of Cambridge Cambridge UK

Department of Plant Systematics University of Bayreuth Bayreuth Germany

Department of Spatial Regulation GIS and Forest Policy Institute of Forestry Belgrade Serbia

Department of Wetland Ecology Institute for Geography and Geoecology Karlsruhe Institute for Technology Karlsruhe Germany

Department of Wildlife Management College of African Wildlife Management Mweka Tanzania

Department of Zoology University of Oxford Oxford UK

Division of Forest and Forest Resources Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research Ås Norway

Division of Forest Resources Information Korea Forest Promotion Institute Seoul South Korea

Division of Forestry and Natural Resources West Virginia University Morgantown WV USA

Ecole de Foresterie et Ingénierie du Bois Université Nationale d'Agriculture Kétou Benin

Environmental and Life Sciences Faculty of Science Universiti Brunei Darussalam Gadong Brunei Darussalam

Environmental Change Institute School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford Oxford UK

Environmental Studies and Research Center University of Campinas UNICAMP Campinas Brazil

European Commission Joint Research Center Ispra Italy

Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Ambientales Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango Durango Mexico

Faculty of Biology Białowieża Geobotanical Station University of Warsaw Białowieża Poland

Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management Norwegian University of Life Sciences Ås Norway

Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Czech Republic

Faculty of Forestry Qingdao Agricultural University Qingdao China

Faculty of Natural Resources Management Lakehead University Thunder Bay Ontario Canada

Field Museum of Natural History Chicago IL USA

Flamingo Land Ltd Kirby Misperton UK

Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group Wageningen University and Research Wageningen the Netherlands

Forest Research Institute Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Malaysia

Forest Research Institute University of the Sunshine Coast Sippy Downs Queensland Australia

Forestry Consultant Grosseto Italy

Forestry Division Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome Italy

Forestry Faculty Mytischi Branch of Bauman Moscow State Technical University Mytischi Russian Federation

Forestry School Tecnológico de Costa Rica TEC Cartago Costa Rica

Fundacion ConVida Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia UNAD Medellin Colombia

Geobotany Faculty of Biology University of Freiburg Freiburg im Breisgau Germany

Geography College of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK

German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research Halle Jena Leipzig Leipzig Germany

GIP Ecofor Paris France

Glick Designs LLC Hadley MA USA

Global Change Research Institute CAS Brno Czech Republic

Graduate School of Agriculture Kyoto University Kyoto Japan

Guyana Forestry Commission Georgetown French Guiana

Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment Western Sydney University Penrith New South Wales Australia

Helmholtz GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics Section Telegrafenberg Potsdam Germany

IFER Institute of Forest Ecosystem Research Jilove u Prahy Czech Republic

Independent Researcher Sommersbergseestrasse Bad Aussee Austria

Info Flora Geneva Switzerland

Institut Agronomique néo Calédonien Nouméa New Caledonia

Institute for Global Change Biology and School for Environment and Sustainability University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USA

Institute for World Forestry University of Hamburg Hamburg Germany

Institute of Biology Geobotany and Botanical Garden Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg Halle Wittenberg Germany

Institute of Botany The Czech Academy of Sciences Třeboň Czech Republic

Institute of Dendrology Polish Academy of Sciences Kórnik Poland

Institute of Forestry and Engineering Estonian University of Life Sciences Tartu Estonia

Institute of Forestry Belgrade Serbia

Institute of Integrative Biology ETH Zurich Zurich Switzerland

Institute of Plant Sciences University of Bern Bern Switzerland

Institute of Tropical Forest Conservation Mbarara University of Sciences and Technology Mbarara Uganda

Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonía Peruana Iquitos Peru

Instituto de Silvicultura e Industria de la Madera Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango Durango Mexico

Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia Manaus Brazil

Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria Río Gallegos Argentina

Interdisciplinary Program in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Seoul National University Seoul South Korea

IRET Herbier National du Gabon Libreville Gabon

Isotope Bioscience Laboratory ISOFYS Ghent University Ghent Belgium

Iwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development Georgetown French Guiana

Jardín Botánico de Medellín Medellin Colombia

Jardín Botánico de Missouri Pasco Peru

Joint Research Unit CTFC AGROTECNIO CERCA Solsona Spain

Key Laboratory of Tropical Biological Resources Ministry of Education School of Life and Pharmaceutical Sciences Hainan University Haikou China

Laboratório de Dendrologia e Silvicultura Tropical Centro de Formação em Ciências Agroflorestais Universidade Federal do Sul da Bahia Itabuna Brazil

LINCGlobal Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales CSIC Madrid Spain

Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research Lincoln New Zealand

Museo de Historia natural Noel kempff Mercado Santa Cruz Bolivia

Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi Coordenação de Ciências da Terra e Ecologia Belém Pará Brasil

National Biodiversity Future Center Palermo Italy

National Center for Agro Meteorology Seoul South Korea

National Forest Centre Forest Research Institute Zvolen Zvolen Slovakia

National Institute of Amazonian Research Manaus Brazil

Natural Resources Institute Finland Joensuu Finland

Natural Science Department Universidade Regional de Blumenau Blumenau Brazil

Naturalis Biodiversity Center Leiden the Netherlands

Negaunee Integrative Research Center Field Museum of Natural History Chicago IL USA

Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University Durham NC USA

Peoples Friendship University of Russia Moscow Russian Federation

Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation Group Wageningen University Wageningen the Netherlands

Plant Systematic and Ecology Laboratory Department of Biology Higher Teachers' Training College University of Yaoundé 1 Yaoundé Cameroon

Polish State Forests Coordination Center for Environmental Projects Warsaw Poland

Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador Quito Ecuador

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Washington DC USA

Programa de doctorado en Ingeniería para el desarrollo rural y civil Escuela de Doctorado Internacional de la Universidad de Santiago de Compostela Santiago de Compostela Spain

Programa de Pós graduação em Biologia Vegetal Instituto de Biologia Universidade Estadual de Campinas Campinas Brazil

Quantitative Biodiversity Dynamics Department of Biology Utrecht University Utrecht the Netherlands

Queensland Herbarium and Biodiversity Science Department of Environment and Science Toowong Queensland Australia

Research and Innovation Center Fondazione Edmund Mach San Michele All'adige Italy

Research Center of Forest Management Engineering of State Forestry and Grassland Administration Beijing Forestry University Beijing China

Research Institute for Agriculture and Life Sciences Seoul National University Seoul South Korea

Rhino and Forest Fund e 5 Kehl Germany

Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh Edinburgh UK

School of Biological and Behavioural Sciences Queen Mary University of London London UK

School of Biological Sciences University of Bristol Bristol UK

School of Forestry and Environmental Studies Yale University New Haven CT USA

School of Geography University of Leeds Leeds UK

School of Social Sciences Western Sydney University Penrith New South Wales Australia

Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity Department of Biology Aarhus University Aarhus Denmark

Servicios Ecosistémicos y Cambio Climático Fundación Con Vida and Corporación COL TREE Medellín Colombia

Siberian Federal University Krasnoyarsk Russian Federation

Silviculture and Forest Ecology of the Temperate Zones University of Göttingen Göttingen Germany

Silviculture Research Institute Vietnamese Academy of Forest Sciences Hanoi Vietnam

Spatial Ecology and Conservation Laboratory Department of Tourism Recreation and Sport Management University of Florida Gainesville FL USA

Ștefan cel Mare University of Suceava Suceava Romania

Sustainable Forest Management Research Institute iuFOR University Valladolid Valladolid Spain

Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL Birmensdorf Switzerland

TERRA Teach and Research Centre Gembloux Agro Bio Tech University of Liege Liege Belgium

The Nature Conservancy Boulder CO USA

The Santa Fe Institute Santa Fe NM USA

Theoretical Ecology Unit African Institute for Mathematical Sciences Cape Town South Africa

Tropenbos International Wageningen the Netherlands

Tropical Biodiversity MUSE Museo delle Scienze Trento Italy

Tropical Forest and People Research Centre University of the Sunshine Coast Sippy Downs Queensland Australia

UFR Biosciences University Félix Houphouët Boigny Abidjan Côte d'Ivoire

UNELLEZ Guanare Programa de Ciencias del Agro y el Mar Herbario Universitario Portuguesa Venezuela

UniSA STEM and Future Industries Institute University of South Australia Adelaide South Australia Australia

Universidad del Tolima Ibagué Colombia

Universidad Estatal Amazónica Puyo Pastaza Ecuador

Universidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana Iquitos Peru

Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco Cusco Peru

Université de Lorraine AgroParisTech INRAE Silva Nancy France

Vicerrectoría de Investigación y Postgrado Universidad de La Frontera Temuco Chile

Wageningen University and Research Wageningen the Netherlands

Wild Chimpanzee Foundation Liberia Office Monrovia Liberia

Wildlife Conservation Society New York NY USA

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