The rising introduction of invasive species through trade networks threatens biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, we have a limited understanding of how transportation networks determine patterns of range expansion. This is partly because current analytical models fail to integrate the invader's life-history dynamics with heterogeneity in human-mediated dispersal patterns. And partly because classical statistical methods often fail to provide reliable estimates of model parameters due to spatial biases in the presence-only records and lack of informative demographic data. To address these gaps, we first formulate an age-structured metapopulation model that uses a probability matrix to emulate human-mediated dispersal patterns. The model reveals that an invader spreads along the shortest network path, such that the inter-patch network distances decrease with increasing traffic volume and reproductive value of hitchhikers. Next, we propose a Bayesian statistical method to estimate model parameters using presence-only data and prior demographic knowledge. To show the utility of the statistical approach, we analyze zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) expansion in North America through the commercial shipping network. Our analysis underscores the importance of correcting spatial biases and leveraging priors to answer questions, such as where and when the zebra mussels were introduced and what life-history characteristics make these mollusks successful invaders.

Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Forestry and Wood Sciences 16500 Prague 6 Czech Republic

Department of Ecology and Evolution Biophore UNIL Sorge University of Lausanne Lausanne 1015

Department of Integrative Biology The University of Texas at Austin Austin Texas 78712

Department of Physics Graduate Program in Bioinformatics and Biological Design Center Boston University Boston MA 02215

Department of Statistics and Data Sciences The University of Texas at Austin Austin Texas 78705

USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station Morgantown West Virginia 15349

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