Our ability to predict the identity of future invasive alien species is largely based upon knowledge of prior invasion history. Emerging alien species-those never encountered as aliens before-therefore pose a significant challenge to biosecurity interventions worldwide. Understanding their temporal trends, origins, and the drivers of their spread is pivotal to improving prevention and risk assessment tools. Here, we use a database of 45,984 first records of 16,019 established alien species to investigate the temporal dynamics of occurrences of emerging alien species worldwide. Even after many centuries of invasions the rate of emergence of new alien species is still high: One-quarter of first records during 2000-2005 were of species that had not been previously recorded anywhere as alien, though with large variation across taxa. Model results show that the high proportion of emerging alien species cannot be solely explained by increases in well-known drivers such as the amount of imported commodities from historically important source regions. Instead, these dynamics reflect the incorporation of new regions into the pool of potential alien species, likely as a consequence of expanding trade networks and environmental change. This process compensates for the depletion of the historically important source species pool through successive invasions. We estimate that 1-16% of all species on Earth, depending on the taxonomic group, qualify as potential alien species. These results suggest that there remains a high proportion of emerging alien species we have yet to encounter, with future impacts that are difficult to predict.

Berlin Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research 14195 Berlin Germany

Bio Protection Research Centre Lincoln University 7648 Christchurch New Zealand

Biodiversity and Biocomplexity Unit Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University Onna 904 0495 Okinawa Japan

Biota of North America Program Chapel Hill NC 27516

Botanical Society of Britain and Ireland HG1 1SS Harrogate United Kingdom

CABI 2800 Delémont Switzerland

Center for InterAmerican Studies Bielefeld University 33615 Bielefeld Germany

Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford OX10 8BB United Kingdom

Centre for Invasion Biology Department of Botany and Zoology Stellenbosch University Stellenbosch 7599 South Africa

Charles Darwin Foundation for the Galapagos Islands Puerto Ayora Santa Cruz Galapagos Ecuador

CIBIO InBIO Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos Universidade do Porto 4485 661 Vairão Portugal

Departamento de Botánica Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Oceanográficas Universidad de Concepción Casilla 160 C Concepción Chile

Department of Agriculture University of Sassari 07100 Sassari Italy

Department of Biological Diversity and Nature Conservation Environment Agency 1090 Vienna Austria

Department of Biology University of Fribourg 1700 Fribourg Switzerland

Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research University of Vienna 1030 Vienna Austria

Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research University of Vienna 1030 Vienna Austria;

Department of Botany and Nature Protection Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection University of Silesia 40 032 Katowice Poland

Department of Botany National Museum of Natural History Smithsonian Institution Washington DC 20013

Department of Community Ecology Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ 06120 Halle Germany

Department of Ecology and Systematics Faculty of Biology National and Kapodistrian University of Athens 15784 Athens Greece

Department of Ecology Faculty of Science Charles University Viničná 7 CZ 128 44 Prague Czech Republic

Department of Environmental Biology Sapienza University 00185 Rome Italy

Department of Experimental and Systems Ecology Bielefeld University 33615 Bielefeld Germany

Department of Genetics Evolution and Environment Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research University College London WC1E 6BT London United Kingdom

Department of Geobotany and Botanical Garden Martin Luther University of Halle Wittenberg 06108 Halle Germany

Department of Silviculture and Forest Management Faculty of Renewable Natural Resource Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology Kumasi Ghana

Ecology Department of Biology University of Konstanz 78457 Konstanz Germany

German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research Halle Jena Leipzig 04103 Leipzig Germany

Global Health and Tropical Medicine Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical IHMT Universidade Nova de Lisboa UNL 1349 008 Lisboa Portugal

Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique UR 0633 Zoologie Forestière 45075 Orléans France

Institute for Agro Environmental Sciences National Agriculture and Food Research Organization 305 8604 Tsukuba Japan

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment University of Oldenburg 26111 Oldenburg Germany

Institute for Environmental Protection and Research 00144 Rome Italy

Institute of Biology Department of Biology Chemistry and Pharmacy Freie Universität Berlin 14195 Berlin Germany

Institute of Botany Department of Invasion Ecology The Czech Academy of Sciences CZ 252 43 Průhonice Czech Republic

Institute of Ecology and Evolution University of Bern CH 3012 Bern Switzerland

Institute of Zoology Zoological Society of London NW1 4RY London United Kingdom

Invasive Species Specialist Group Species Survival Commission International Union for Conservation of Nature 00144 Rome Italy

Invasive Species Specialist Group Species Survival Commission International Union for Conservation of Nature University of Auckland 1072 Aukland New Zealand

Landcare Research PB 92170 Auckland New Zealand

Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries 12587 Berlin Germany

School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences Durham University DH1 3LE Durham United Kingdom

School of Biological Sciences The University of Hong Kong Pokfulam Hong Kong China

School of Biological Sciences University of Auckland Auckland 1142 New Zealand

Scion 8440 Christchurch New Zealand

Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre 60325 Frankfurt am Main Germany;

US Forest Service Northern Research Station Morgantown WV 26505

Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Plant Evolutionary Ecology and Conservation Taizhou University 318000 Taizhou China

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