BACKGROUND: Biological invasions threaten the functioning of ecosystems, biodiversity, and human well-being by degrading ecosystem services and eliciting massive economic costs. The European Union has historically been a hub for cultural development and global trade, and thus, has extensive opportunities for the introduction and spread of alien species. While reported costs of biological invasions to some member states have been recently assessed, ongoing knowledge gaps in taxonomic and spatio-temporal data suggest that these costs were considerably underestimated. RESULTS: We used the latest available cost data in InvaCost (v4.1)-the most comprehensive database on the costs of biological invasions-to assess the magnitude of this underestimation within the European Union via projections of current and future invasion costs. We used macroeconomic scaling and temporal modelling approaches to project available cost information over gaps in taxa, space, and time, thereby producing a more complete estimate for the European Union economy. We identified that only 259 out of 13,331 (~ 1%) known invasive alien species have reported costs in the European Union. Using a conservative subset of highly reliable, observed, country-level cost entries from 49 species (totalling US$4.7 billion; 2017 value), combined with the establishment data of alien species within European Union member states, we projected unreported cost data for all member states. CONCLUSIONS: Our corrected estimate of observed costs was potentially 501% higher (US$28.0 billion) than currently recorded. Using future projections of current estimates, we also identified a substantial increase in costs and costly species (US$148.2 billion) by 2040. We urge that cost reporting be improved to clarify the economic impacts of greatest concern, concomitant with coordinated international action to prevent and mitigate the impacts of invasive alien species in the European Union and globally. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12302-023-00750-3.

ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage Wollongong NSW Australia

Bioprotection Aotearoa Lincoln University Lincoln Canterbury 7647 New Zealand

Center for Applied Mathematics and Bioinformatics Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Gulf University for Science and Technology Hawally Kuwait

College of Fisheries Ocean University of China Qingdao 266003 China

Department of Basic Sciences Faculty of Fisheries Muğla Sıtkı Koçman University 48000 Muğla Turkey

Department of Biology McGill University Montréal QC Canada

Department of Life and Environmental Sciences Faculty of Science and Technology Bournemouth University Poole Dorset UK

Department of River Ecology and Conservation Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum Frankfurt Gelnhausen Germany

Department of Sociology Environmental and Business Economics University of Southern Denmark Degnevej 14 6705 Esbjerg Ø Denmark

Estación Biológica de Doñana CSIC Avda Americo Vespucio 26 41092 Seville Spain

Faculty of Fisheries and Protection of Waters University of South Bohemia in České Budějovice South Bohemian Research Centre of Aquaculture and Biodiversity of Hydrocenoses Zátiší 728 2 389 25 Vodňany Czech Republic

GEOMAR Helmholtz Zentrum für Ozeanforschung Kiel Düsternbrooker Weg 20 24105 Kiel Germany

Global Ecology | Partuyarta Ngadluku Wardli Kuu College of Science and Engineering Flinders University Adelaide SA 5001 Australia

Graduate Program in Conservation and Ecotourism Federal University of Rio de Janeiro State Rio de Janeiro RJ Brazil

Institut Universitaire de France 1 rue Descartes 75231 Paris Cedex 05 France

Institute for Global Food Security School of Biological Sciences Queen's University Belfast Belfast BT9 5DL UK

Institute of Hydrobiology Chinese Academy of Sciences Wuhan 430072 China

Marine Policy Center Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Woods Hole MA 02543 USA

Neotropical Limnology Group Federal University of Rio de Janeiro State Av Pasteur 458 Rio de Janeiro RJ 22290 240 Brazil

School of Biological Sciences King's College University of Aberdeen Aberdeen AB24 3FX UK

UMR 6308 AMURE Université de Bretagne Occidentale IUEM rue Dumont d'Urville 29280 Plouzané France

Université Paris Saclay CNRS AgroParisTech Ecologie Systématique Evolution Gif sur Yvette France

University of Rennes CNRS ECOBIO UMR 6553 Rennes France

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Recent advances in availability and synthesis of the economic costs of biological invasions