This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yields. In addition, rainfall variability and its relationship with crop yields are examined using spectral analysis and squared wavelet coherence. Observed station data (1950-2020 and 1850-2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (1950-2020), and climate model simulations (period 1970-2100) are used. Crop yield data (maize, sunflower, grape), data from experimental plots (wheat), and the Enhanced Vegetation Index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites were also used. Results show that although the severity of meteorological droughts has decreased in the last 170 years, the impact of precipitation deficits on different crop yields has increased, concurrent with a sharp increase in temperature, which negatively affected crop yields. Annual crops are now more vulnerable to natural rainfall variability and, in years characterized by rainfall deficits, the possibility of reductions in crop yield increases due to sharp increases in temperature. Projections reveal a pessimistic outlook in the absence of adaptation, highlighting the urgency of developing new agricultural management strategies.

Centre of Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford UK

Departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra y Astrofísica Facultad de Ciencias Físicas Universidad Complutense de Madrid Madrid Spain

Department of Agroecology and Crop Production Czech Republic Faculty of Agrobiology Food and Natural Resources Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Praha Czech Republic

Department of Geography Mansoura University Mansoura Egypt

Department of Geography University of Zaragoza Zaragoza Spain

Department of Human Sciences Area of Physical Geography University of La Rioja Logroño Spain

Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science Lund University Lund Sweden

Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences Brno Czech Republic

Instituto de Física de Cantabria Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas Santander Spain

Instituto de Geociencias Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas Universidad Complutense de Madrid Madrid Spain

Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas Zaragoza Spain

Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS Department of Geography Maynooth University Maynooth Ireland

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Potsdam Germany

Selectia Research Institute of Field Crops Balti Moldova

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