The jet stream is an important dynamic driver of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes1-3. Modern variability in the position of summer jet stream latitude in the North Atlantic-European sector (EU JSL) promotes dipole patterns in air pressure, temperature, precipitation and drought between northwestern and southeastern Europe. EU JSL variability and its impacts on regional climatic extremes and societal events are poorly understood, particularly before anthropogenic warming. Based on three temperature-sensitive European tree-ring records, we develop a reconstruction of interannual summer EU JSL variability over the period 1300-2004 CE (R2 = 38.5%) and compare it to independent historical documented climatic and societal records, such as grape harvest, grain prices, plagues and human mortality. Here we show contrasting summer climate extremes associated with EU JSL variability back to 1300 CE as well as biophysical, economic and human demographic impacts, including wildfires and epidemics. In light of projections for altered jet stream behaviour and intensified climate extremes, our findings underscore the importance of considering EU JSL variability when evaluating amplified future climate risk.

Belgian Climate Centre Uccle Belgium

Bolin Centre for Climate Research Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden

Chair of Forest Growth and Dendroecology Institute of Forest Sciences University of Freiburg Freiburg Germany

Dendrology Department University of Forestry Sofia Bulgaria

Departamento de Sistemas y Recursos Naturales Universidad Politécnica de Madrid Madrid Spain

Department of Botany University of Innsbruck Innsbruck Austria

Department of Geography Faculty of Science Masaryk University Brno Czech Republic

Department of Geography Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz Germany

Department of Geography University of Cambridge Cambridge UK

Department of History Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden

Forest Is Life TERRA Teaching and Research Centre Gembloux Agro Bio Tech University of Liège Gembloux Belgium

Geschäftsbereich Klima und Umwelt Deutscher Wetterdienst Offenbach Germany

Global Change Research Institute Czech Academy of Sciences Brno Czech Republic

Laboratory of Tree Ring Research University of Arizona Tucson AZ USA

Nature Rings Environmental Research and Education Mainz Germany

Panel on Planetary Thinking Justus Liebig University Gießen Germany

Regional Climate Group Department of Earth Sciences University of Gothenburg Gothenburg Sweden

School of Earth and Environmental Sciences University of St Andrews Fife UK

Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Northwest University Xi'an China

State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences Northwest Institute of Eco Environment and Resources Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou China

Stockholm Tree Ring Laboratory Department of Physical Geography Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden

Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study Linneanum Uppsala Sweden

Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL Birmensdorf Switzerland

Trinity Centre for Environmental Humanities and Department of History Trinity College Dublin Dublin Ireland

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Jet stream controls on European climate and agriculture since 1300 CE