Forests are essential to climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration, transpiration, and turnover. However, the quantification of climate change impacts on forest growth is uncertain and even contradictory in some regions, which is the result of spatially constrained studies. Here, we use an unprecedented network of 1.5 million tree growth records from 493 Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris stands across Europe to predict species-specific tree growth variability from 1950 to 2016 (R2 > 0.82) and develop 21st-century gridded projections considering different climate change scenarios. The approach demonstrates overall positive effects of warming temperatures leading to 25% projected conifer growth increases under the SPP370 scenario, but these additional carbon gains are spatially inhomogeneous and associated with geographic climate gradients. Maximum gains are projected for pines in Scandinavia, where growth trajectories indicate 50% increases by 2071-2100. Smaller but significant growth reductions are projected in Mediterranean Europe, where conifer growth shrinks by 25% in response to warmer temperatures. Our results reveal potential mitigating effects via forest carbon sequestration increases in response to global warming and stress the importance of effective forest management.

Department of Geography and Regional Planning and Environmental Sciences Institute University of Zaragoza Zaragoza Spain

Department of Geography Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz Germany

Department of Geology National Museum of Natural Sciences Spanish National Research Council Madrid Spain

Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences Brno Czech Republic

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Glob Chang Biol. 2025 Aug;31(8):e70402. doi: 10.1111/gcb.70402. PubMed

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Spatiotemporal Variability of Dendroecological Indicators in Pedunculate Oak (Quercus robur L.) Tree-Rings Across Europe in Relation to Species Distribution Models