Climate is a primary, but non-stationary, driver of tree growth. Climate change is altering the sensitivity of forest growth to water availability and temperature over time. It is considered that pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) will cope with the changing climatic conditions in Europe in the near future. However, while species distribution models project expansion zones, they also identify reductions in occurrence at the dry and warm distribution margins. Whereas species distribution models primarily rely on occurrence data, tree rings-given their long-term perspective and their use in empirical models-can provide a mechanistic view of forest growth dynamics, including temporally changing climate responses. Increased climate sensitivity and growth synchrony are key dendroecological indicators of tree stress. Here, we used an unprecedented network of 150 Q. robur sites (over 3300 trees), covering the full projected range of contracting to persistent areas across Europe, to assess the dendroecological indicators over recent decades in relation to species distribution model predictions. We reveal that oaks in areas projected to experience range contraction exhibited greater sensitivity to current growing season climatic conditions, whereas those in persistence areas responded more strongly to previous season conditions. Growth synchrony among trees was higher in the contraction areas, but showed no significant increasing trend over the last 70 years, as expected from ecotone theory. Temporal shifts in climate sensitivity were stronger for temperature and vapor pressure deficit in the persistence areas, whereas the climatic water balance gained importance in the contraction zones. These findings suggest that Q. robur growth is not yet being severely affected by climate change, and that the species is currently coping well with the climate changes, even in regions with projected range contractions, thereby challenging statistically derived scenarios of range shift based on species distribution models.

BIOGECO INRAE University of Bordeaux Cestas France

Center for Mountain Economy Vatra Dornei Romania

Centre for Climate Change Research Nicolaus Copernicus University Toruń Poland

Chair of Forest and Land Management and Wood Processing Technologies Estonian University of Life Sciences Tartu Estonia

Chair of Forest Growth and Woody Biomass Production TU Dresden Dresden Germany

Consart Bt Budapest Hungary

CSFK MTA Centre of Excellence Budapest Hungary

Dendrolab IBL Department of Natural Forests Forest Research Institute Białowieża Poland

Dendrolab IBL Department of Silviculture and Genetics Forest Research Institute Sękocin Stary Poland

Department for Forest and Landscape Planning and Monitoring Slovenian Forestry Institute Ljubljana Slovenia

Department of Ecology and Biogeography Faculty of Biological and Veterinary Sciences Nicolaus Copernicus University Toruń Poland

Department of Forest Botany Dendrology and Geobiocoenology Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology Mendel University in Brno Brno Czech Republic

Department of Forest Management Dendrometry and Economics of Forestry Warsaw University of Life Sciences Warsaw Poland

Department of Geography Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences University of Tartu Tartu Estonia

Department of Geography Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz Germany

Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology Faculty of Science Charles University Prague Czech Republic

Department of Silviculture and Genetics Forest Research Institute Sękocin Stary Poland

Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology Mendel University in Brno Brno Czech Republic

Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology Poznań University of Life Sciences Poznań Poland

Faculty of Silviculture and Forest Engineering Transilvania University of Brasov Brasov Romania

Falz Fein Biosphere Reserve Askania Nova Kherson Oblast Ukraine

Forest Biometrics Laboratory Faculty of Forestry Stefan Cel Mare University of Suceava Suceava Romania

Forest Research and Management Institute Chisinau Moldova

Forsite Consultants Ltd Prince Albert Canada

Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences Brno Czech Republic

Independent Researcher Sárkeresztes Hungary

Institute for Botany and Landscape Ecology University of Greifswald Greifswald Germany

Institute for Environmental Sciences University of Geneva Geneva Switzerland

Institute for Evolutionary Ecology of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Kyiv Ukraine

Institute for Geological and Geochemical Research HUN REN Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences Budapest Hungary

Institute for Soil Sciences HUN REN Centre for Agricultural Research Budapest Hungary

Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Sofia Bulgaria

Institute of Dendrology Polish Academy of Sciences Poznan Poland

Institute of Geography Friedrich Alexander Universität Erlangen Nürnberg Erlangen Germany

Institute of Lowland Forestry and Environment University of Novi Sad Novi Sad Serbia

Kherson State University Ivano Frankivsk Ukraine

Land Surface Atmosphere Interactions TU Munich Freising Germany

Landesforstanstalt Mecklenburg Vorpommern Department of Forest Planning Forest Research Information Systems Research Unit Silviculture and Forest Growth Schwerin Germany

Latvian State Forest Research Institute Silava Salaspils Latvia

M G Kholodny Institute of Botany Kyiv Ukraine

Moldova State University Chisinau Moldova

National Institute for Research and Development in Forestry Marin Drăcea Bucharest Romania

Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Alnarp Sweden

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