Survival and cause-specific mortality rates are vital for evidence-based population forecasting and conservation, particularly for large carnivores, whose populations are often vulnerable to human-caused mortalities. It is therefore important to know the relationship between anthropogenic and natural mortality causes to evaluate whether they are additive or compensatory. Further, the relation between survival and environmental covariates could reveal whether specific landscape characteristics influence demographic performance. We used telemetry data on 681 Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), a model apex predator with large spatial requirements, that were tracked across their European distribution. Through time-to-event analyses, we sought to determine the variables associated with differences in their survival. Illegal killing was the main cause of mortality (33.8%), and mortality rates were similar in protected and hunted populations (8.6% and 7.0% per year, respectively). Survival varied greatly across populations (70-95% per year). Across all study sites, higher hunting and anthropogenic mortality rates were partially compensated by lower rates of other mortality causes but not by natural mortality alone. Variation in survival depended on sex (female survival was 1.5 times greater than male survival) and seasonality (highest risk during hunting season and winter), and lower survival rates were correlated with higher human modification of landscapes at both coarse (home range composition) and fine (habitat use within home range) scales. Some variation in survival was driven by unobserved factors, which, given the high rates of human-caused mortalities, including illegal killing, are of foremost concern. Due to the low natural mortality rates in protected and hunted populations, we conclude that anthropogenic causes of mortality are likely close to additive, such that maintaining or increasing refuge habitat with little human disturbance is critical to lynx conservation.

Supervivencia del lince euroasiático en los paisajes europeos dominados por humanos Resumen Las tasas de supervivencia y mortalidad por causas específicas son vitales para la previsión y conservación de poblaciones basadas en evidencias, sobre todo en el caso de los grandes carnívoros, cuyas poblaciones suelen ser vulnerables a la mortalidad causada por el hombre. Por esto es importante conocer la relación entre las causas de mortalidad antropogénicas y naturales para evaluar si son aditivas o compensatorias. Además, la relación entre la supervivencia y las covariables ambientales podría revelar si las características específicas del paisaje influyen en el rendimiento demográfico. Utilizamos datos telemétricos de 681 linces euroasiáticos (Lynx lynx), un depredador ápice modelo con grandes necesidades espaciales, que fueron rastreados a lo largo de su distribución europea. Mediante análisis cronológicos, intentamos determinar las variables asociadas a las diferencias en su supervivencia. La matanza ilegal fue la principal causa de mortalidad (33.8%), y las tasas de mortalidad auales fueron similares en las poblaciones protegidas y cazadas (8.6 y 7.0%, respectivamente). La supervivencia anual varió mucho de una población a otra (del 70 al 95%). En todos los lugares de estudio, las mayores tasas de mortalidad antropogénica y por caza se vieron parcialmente compensadas por las menores tasas de otras causas de mortalidad, pero no por la mortalidad natural por sí sola. La variación en la supervivencia dependió del sexo (la supervivencia de las hembras fue 1.5 veces mayor que la de los machos) y de la estacionalidad (el mayor riesgo se registró durante la temporada de caza y el invierno), y las menores tasas de supervivencia se correlacionaron con una mayor modificación humana de los paisajes tanto a escala gruesa (composición del área de distribución) como fina (uso del hábitat dentro del área de distribución). Algunas variaciones en la supervivencia se debieron a factores no observados. Dadas las elevadas tasas de mortalidad causada por el hombre, incluidas las matanzas ilegales, estos factores son motivo de gran preocupación. Debido a las bajas tasas de mortalidad natural en poblaciones protegidas y cazadas, concluimos que las causas antropogénicas de mortalidad son probablemente casi aditivas, de modo que mantener o aumentar el hábitat de refugio con poca perturbación humana es crítico para la conservación del lince.

Biotechnical Faculty University of Ljubljana Ljubljana Slovenia

Carnivore Conservation Programme Friends of the Earth Czech Republic Olomouc Czech Republic

Centro de Ecología Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas Caracas Venezuela

Chair of Applied Animal Ecology Institute of Ecology Technische Universität Berlin Berlin Germany

Chair of Wildlife Ecology and Management Albert Ludwigs University of Freiburg Freiburg Germany

Department of Applied Zoology and Wildlife Management Faculty of Forestry Technical University in Zvolen Zvolen Slovakia

Department of Biology Faculty of Veterinary Medicine University of Zagreb Zagreb Croatia

Department of Ecology and Evolution University of Lausanne Lausanne Switzerland

Department of Forest Ecology Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology Mendel University in Brno Brno Czech Republic

Department of Forestry and Wildlife Management Campus Evenstad Inland Norway University for Applied Science Koppang Norway

Department of National Park Monitoring and Animal Management Bavarian Forest National Park Grafenau Germany

Department of Research and Nature Protection Šumava National Park Administration Kašperské Hory Czech Republic

Department of Wildlife Management and Nature Protection Karlovac University of Applied Sciences Karlovac Croatia

Department of Zoology Fisheries Hydrobiology and Apiculture Faculty of AgriSciences Mendel University in Brno Brno Czech Republic

Department of Zoology Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences University of Tartu Tartu Estonia

DIANA Carpathian Wildlife Research Banská Bystrica Slovakia

Direction de la Recherche et de l'Appui Scientifique Office Français de la Biodiversité Gières France

Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Czech Republic

Forstliche Versuchs und Forschungsanstalt Baden Württemberg Freiburg Germany

Geography Department Humboldt Universität zu Berlin Berlin Germany

Grimsö Wildlife Research Station Department of Ecology Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Riddarhyttan Sweden

Institute of Nature Conservation Polish Academy of Sciences Krakow Poland

Institute of Vertebrate Biology Czech Academy of Sciences Brno Czech Republic

Latvian State Forest Research Institute Silava Salaspils Latvia

Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research Berlin Germany

Luchsbeauftragter Nationalpark Kalkalpen Nationalpark Zentrum Molln Molln Austria

Luchsprojekt Harz Nationalparkverwaltung Harz Außenstelle Oderhaus Sankt Andreasberg Germany

Macedonian Ecological Society Skopje North Macedonia

Mammal Research Institute Polish Academy of Sciences Białowieża Poland

National Zoological Garden Bojnice Bojnice Slovakia

Norwegian Institute for Nature Research Lillehammer Norway

Norwegian Institute for Nature Research Oslo Norway

Norwegian Institute for Nature Research Trondheim Norway

Progetto Lince Italia Tarvisio Italy

Slovenia Forest Service Ljubljana Slovenia

Stiftung KORA Muri bei Bern Switzerland

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