Biodiversity is decreasing at an alarming rate, and there is an urgent need to understand the demographic drivers behind population declines. Therefore, it is important to study the different stages of a species' life cycle, including adult survival and productivity. It is still poorly understood whether adult survival or productivity has a stronger role in population change, and how the role of adult survival and productivity varies spatially in relation to species' traits. We used bird ringing data from the European Constant Effort Sites (EuroCES) project from the years 2000 to 2021, with 1.2 million captures of 33 songbird species from ten European countries. We investigated the role of productivity and adult survival in annual population change and how it was affected by spatio-climatic gradient (measured as average breeding season temperature per country), migratory strategy (long- vs. short-distance and sedentary birds), and breeding habitat (forest vs. reeds) using linear mixed effect models. Overall, our results show that adult survival is a more important driver of annual population change than productivity within European songbirds. The importance of adult survival and productivity varied spatially, both having a weaker influence in warmer regions. Furthermore, the role of adult survival was stronger for long-distance migrants compared to short-distance migrants. Acknowledging that adult survival has a stronger role in annual population change than productivity can help design more robust conservation actions, especially regarding long-distance migratory songbirds.

Agency for Environment Nature Conservation and Geology Mecklenburg Western Pomerania Hiddensee Bird Ringing Scheme Goldberger Str 12B E18273 Güstrow Germany

Aranzadi Ringing Scheme Aranzadi Sciences Society Zorroagaina 11 S20014 San Sebastián Spain

Area Avifauna Migratrice Via Ca' Fornacetta 9 40064 Ozzano Dell'Emilia BO Italy

Bird Ringing Centre National Museum Hornoměcholupská 34 10200 Prague 10 Czechia

Bonhoefferstr 5 E04668 Grimma Germany

British Trust for Ornithology The Nunnery Thetford Norfolk IP24 2PU UK

Dutch Centre for Avian Migration and Demography Droevendaalsesteeg 10 6708 PB Wageningen The Netherlands

ICO MUS NAT SCI BARCELONA Institut Català d'Ornitologia Nat Museu de Ciències Naturals de Barcelona Plaça Leonardo da Vinci 4 5 08019 Barcelona Spain

Institute of Avian Research An der Vogelwarte 21 26386 Wilhelmshaven Niedersachsen Germany

LUKE Natural Resources Institute Finland Latokartanonkaari 9 00790 Helsinki Finland

LUOMUS Finnish Museum of Natural History University of Helsinki PL 17 P O Box 17 00014 Helsinki Finland

Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior Centre for Animal Marking Am Obstberg 1 78315 Radolfzell Germany

MME BirdLife Hungary Költő U 21 1121 Budapest Hungary

Paser SEO BirdLife C Melquiades Biencinto 34 28053 Madrid Spain

Swedish Bird Ringing Centre Department for Nature and Environmental Monitoring The Swedish Museum of Natural History Box 50007 104 05 Stockholm Sweden

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