BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: We explored which clinical and biochemical variables predict conversion from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) in a large international cohort. METHODS: Thirty-three centres provided serum samples from 1047 CIS cases with at least two years' follow-up. Age, sex, clinical presentation, T2-hyperintense lesions, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) oligoclonal bands (OCBs), CSF IgG index, CSF cell count, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25-OH-D), cotinine and IgG titres against Epstein-Barr nuclear antigen 1 (EBNA-1) and cytomegalovirus were tested for association with risk of CDMS. RESULTS: At median follow-up of 4.31 years, 623 CIS cases converted to CDMS. Predictors of conversion in multivariable analyses were OCB (HR = 2.18, 95% CI = 1.71-2.77, p < 0.001), number of T2 lesions (two to nine lesions vs 0/1 lesions: HR = 1.97, 95% CI = 1.52-2.55, p < 0.001; >9 lesions vs 0/1 lesions: HR = 2.74, 95% CI = 2.04-3.68, p < 0.001) and age at CIS (HR per year inversely increase = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.98-0.99, p < 0.001). Lower 25-OH-D levels were associated with CDMS in univariable analysis, but this was attenuated in the multivariable model. OCB positivity was associated with higher EBNA-1 IgG titres. CONCLUSIONS: We validated MRI lesion load, OCB and age at CIS as the strongest independent predictors of conversion to CDMS in this multicentre setting. A role for vitamin D is suggested but requires further investigation.
- MeSH
- analýza přežití MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- hodnocení rizik MeSH
- imunoglobulin G analýza MeSH
- jaderné proteiny analýza MeSH
- kohortové studie MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- magnetická rezonanční tomografie MeSH
- následné studie MeSH
- oligoklonální proužky genetika MeSH
- prediktivní hodnota testů MeSH
- prognóza MeSH
- progrese nemoci MeSH
- roztroušená skleróza patologie MeSH
- vitamin D krev MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- multicentrická studie MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
The choice of appropriate control group(s) is critical in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker research in multiple sclerosis (MS). There is a lack of definitions and nomenclature of different control groups and a rationalized application of different control groups. We here propose consensus definitions and nomenclature for the following groups: healthy controls (HCs), spinal anesthesia subjects (SASs), inflammatory neurological disease controls (INDCs), peripheral inflammatory neurological disease controls (PINDCs), non-inflammatory neurological controls (NINDCs), symptomatic controls (SCs). Furthermore, we discuss the application of these control groups in specific study designs, such as for diagnostic biomarker studies, prognostic biomarker studies and therapeutic response studies. Application of these uniform definitions will lead to better comparability of biomarker studies and optimal use of available resources. This will lead to improved quality of CSF biomarker research in MS and related disorders.
