BACKGROUND: The appropriate surveillance protocol after radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) for upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) is still poorly addressed. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the appropriate intensity and duration of oncologic surveillance following RNU, according to a prior history of bladder cancer (BCa). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We identified 1378 high-risk UTUC patients, according to the European Association of Urology (EAU) guidelines, from a prospectively maintained database involving eight European referral centers. Surveillance protocol was based on cystoscopies and cross-sectional imaging, as per the EAU guidelines. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: First, we evaluated the noncumulative risk of bladder and other-site recurrences (including distant metastasis and locoregional relapse) against the follow-up time points, as suggested by the current EAU guidelines. Second, in an effort to identify the time points when the risk of other-cause mortality (OCM) exceeded that of recurrence and follow-up might be discontinued, we relied on adjusted Weibull regression. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The median follow-up was 4 yr. A total of 427 and 951 patients with and without a prior BCa history, respectively, were considered. At 5-yr, the time point after which cystoscopies should be performed semiannually, the bladder recurrence risk was 10%; at 4 yr, the bladder recurrence risk was 13%. At 2 yr, the time point after which imaging should be obtained semiannually, the nonbladder recurrence risk was 42% in case of nonprior BCa and 47% in case of prior BCa; at 4 yr, the nonbladder recurrence risk was 23%. Among patients without a prior BCa history, individuals younger than 60 yr should continue both cystoscopies and imaging beyond 10 yr from RNU, 70-79-yr-old patients should continue only imaging beyond 10 yr, while patients older than 80 yr might discontinue oncologic surveillance because of an increased risk of OCM. Limitations include the fact that patients were treated and surveilled over a relatively long period of time. CONCLUSIONS: We suggest intensifying the frequency of imaging to semiannual till the 4th year after RNU, the time point after which the risk of recurrence was almost halved. Cystoscopies could be obtained annually from the 4th year given a similar risk of recurrence at 4 and 5 yr after RNU. Oncologic surveillance could be discontinued in some cases in the absence of a prior BCa history. PATIENT SUMMARY: In this study, we propose a revision of the current guidelines regarding surveillance protocols following radical nephroureterectomy. We also evaluated whether oncologic surveillance for high-risk upper tract urothelial carcinoma could be discontinued and, if so, in what circumstances.
- MeSH
- karcinom z přechodných buněk * patologie MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- lokální recidiva nádoru epidemiologie chirurgie MeSH
- nádory močového měchýře * epidemiologie chirurgie MeSH
- nádory močovodu * patologie chirurgie MeSH
- nefroureterektomie metody MeSH
- retrospektivní studie MeSH
- ureter * patologie MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
INTRODUCTION: The only phase III trial that evaluated the role of adjuvant chemotherapy following radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) for upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) was terminated early. Thus, eventual overall survival (OS) surrogacy, as per Prentice, cannot be assessed in this setting. We aimed to identify an intermediate clinical endpoint (ICE) that could serve as an OS surrogate after RNU for UTUC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 823 high-grade UTUC patients treated with RNU at 8 tertiary referral centers. We explored the role of any recurrence (aR), defined as recurrence in the urinary tract or in the resection bed as well the presence of distant metastasis (DM), defined as metastatic disease outside the urinary tract and regional lymph nodes, on OS through a time-varying Cox regression analyses fitted at the landmark points of 1, 2, 3, and 4 years from RNU. Models' discrimination was assessed using Harrell's c index, after internal validation. RESULTS: Median follow-up for survivors was 5.6 years (interquartile range: 2.0-8.8). Overall, 391 and 212 patients experienced aR and DM, respectively. In a time-varying model, aR and DM were predictors of OS: hazard ratio [HR]:1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.13-1.28 (P < .001) and HR:1.26, 95% CI: 1.18-1.34 (P < .001), respectively. Progression to DM within 3 years from RNU was the most informative ICE for predicting OS (c index: 0.81; HR: 4.40; 95%CI: 2.45-7.92; P < .001), compared to DM within 1, 2, and 4 years (c indexes: 0.74, 0.76, and 0.78, respectively). Progression to DM within 3 years from RNU was further found superior for predicting OS compared to aR at any landmark points. CONCLUSIONS: Progression to DM within 3 years represents a potential OS surrogate for surgically-treated UTUC. This information could help in patient counseling, future study design and expedite results release of ongoing randomized controlled trials.
