BACKGROUND: Imaging-based characteristics associated with the progression of stable coronary atherosclerotic lesions are poorly defined. Utilizing a combination of optical coherence tomography (OCT) and intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) imaging, we aimed to characterize the lesions prone to progression through clinical validation of a semiautomated OCT computational program. METHODS: Patients with stable coronary artery disease underwent nonculprit vessel imaging with IVUS and OCT at baseline and IVUS at the 12-month follow-up. After coregistration of baseline and follow-up IVUS images, paired 5-mm segments from each patient were identified, demonstrating the greatest plaque progression and regression as measured by the change in plaque burden. Experienced readers identified plaque features on corresponding baseline OCT segments, and predictors of plaque progression were assessed by multivariable analysis. Each segment then underwent volumetric assessment of the fibrous cap (FC) using proprietary software. RESULTS: Among 23 patients (70% men; median age, 67 years), experienced-reader analysis demonstrated that for every 100 μm increase in mean FC thickness, plaques were 87% less likely to progress (P = .01), which persisted on multivariable analysis controlling for baseline plaque burden (P = .05). Automated FC analysis (n = 17 paired segments) confirmed this finding (P = .01) and found thinner minimal FC thickness (P = .01) and larger FC surface area of <65 μm (P = .02) and <100 μm (P = .04) in progressing segments than in regressing segments. No additional imaging features predicted plaque progression. CONCLUSIONS: A semiautomated FC analysis tool confirmed the significant association between thinner FC and stable coronary plaque progression along entire vessel segments, illustrating the diffuse nature of FC thinning and suggesting a future clinical role in predicting the progression of stable coronary artery disease.

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