Seizure prediction is feasible, but greater accuracy is needed to make seizure prediction clinically viable across a large group of patients. Recent work crowdsourced state-of-the-art prediction algorithms in a worldwide competition, yielding improvements in seizure prediction performance for patients whose seizures were previously found hard to anticipate. The aim of the current analysis was to explore potential performance improvements using an ensemble of the top competition algorithms. The results suggest that minor increments in performance may be possible; however, the outcomes of statistical testing limit the confidence in these increments. Our results suggest that for the specific algorithms, evaluation framework, and data considered here, incremental improvements are achievable but there may be upper bounds on machine learning-based seizure prediction performance for some patients whose seizures are challenging to predict. Other more tailored approaches that, for example, take into account a deeper understanding of preictal mechanisms, patient-specific sleep-wake rhythms, or novel measurement approaches, may still offer further gains for these types of patients.

• Klíčová slova
• Open Data Ecosystem for the Neurosciences, ensemble methods, epilepsy, intracranial EEG, refractory epilepsy, seizure prediction,
• MeSH
• algoritmy * MeSH
• crowdsourcing MeSH
• elektroencefalografie MeSH
• elektrokortikografie metody   MeSH
• epilepsie parciální diagnóza   MeSH
• lidé středního věku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mladý dospělý MeSH
• prediktivní hodnota testů MeSH
• refrakterní epilepsie diagnóza   MeSH
• reprodukovatelnost výsledků MeSH
• senzitivita a specificita MeSH
• spánek MeSH
• strojové učení MeSH
• studie proveditelnosti MeSH
• záchvaty diagnóza   MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé středního věku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mladý dospělý MeSH
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH

Accurate seizure prediction will transform epilepsy management by offering warnings to patients or triggering interventions. However, state-of-the-art algorithm design relies on accessing adequate long-term data. Crowd-sourcing ecosystems leverage quality data to enable cost-effective, rapid development of predictive algorithms. A crowd-sourcing ecosystem for seizure prediction is presented involving an international competition, a follow-up held-out data evaluation, and an online platform, Epilepsyecosystem.org, for yielding further improvements in prediction performance. Crowd-sourced algorithms were obtained via the 'Melbourne-University AES-MathWorks-NIH Seizure Prediction Challenge' conducted at kaggle.com. Long-term continuous intracranial electroencephalography (iEEG) data (442 days of recordings and 211 lead seizures per patient) from prediction-resistant patients who had the lowest seizure prediction performances from the NeuroVista Seizure Advisory System clinical trial were analysed. Contestants (646 individuals in 478 teams) from around the world developed algorithms to distinguish between 10-min inter-seizure versus pre-seizure data clips. Over 10 000 algorithms were submitted. The top algorithms as determined by using the contest data were evaluated on a much larger held-out dataset. The data and top algorithms are available online for further investigation and development. The top performing contest entry scored 0.81 area under the classification curve. The performance reduced by only 6.7% on held-out data. Many other teams also showed high prediction reproducibility. Pseudo-prospective evaluation demonstrated that many algorithms, when used alone or weighted by circadian information, performed better than the benchmarks, including an average increase in sensitivity of 1.9 times the original clinical trial sensitivity for matched time in warning. These results indicate that clinically-relevant seizure prediction is possible in a wider range of patients than previously thought possible. Moreover, different algorithms performed best for different patients, supporting the use of patient-specific algorithms and long-term monitoring. The crowd-sourcing ecosystem for seizure prediction will enable further worldwide community study of the data to yield greater improvements in prediction performance by way of competition, collaboration and synergism.10.1093/brain/awy210_video1awy210media15817489051001.

• MeSH
• algoritmy MeSH
• crowdsourcing metody   MeSH
• dospělí MeSH
• elektroencefalografie metody   MeSH
• epilepsie patofyziologie   MeSH
• lidé středního věku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mozek diagnostické zobrazování   patofyziologie   MeSH
• prediktivní hodnota testů MeSH
• předpověď metody   MeSH
• prospektivní studie MeSH
• reprodukovatelnost výsledků MeSH
• záchvaty patofyziologie   MeSH
• Check Tag
• dospělí MeSH
• lidé středního věku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH
• Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural MeSH
• Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. MeSH