In Central Europe, the most abundant aphid infesting the leaves of small grain cereals is Metopolophium dirhodum (Walker) (Homoptera: Aphididae). Annual variation in its seasonal dynamics was evaluated using a 25-yr series of standardized weekly censuses of winter wheat plots. M. dirhodum made up >50 % of the aphids on the foliage. Date of immigration (8 May-3 July), length of period of population increase (0-9 wk), and date of attaining maximum abundance (28 May-22 July) varied greatly. For the prediction, we regressed maximum numbers/tiller on numbers recorded in the first week after heading. The regression of maximum abundance on nonzero aphid counts revealed a critical number of ≥1.50 aphids/tiller, which if exceeded resulted in a harmful maximum abundance of ≥10 aphids/tiller at the peak. Zero aphid counts resulted in 10% of cases with a harmful maximum abundance. Using this regression for prediction will result in 18% of the recorded cases being false negatives and 9% false positives. Parallel annual variation in the average maximum numbers of M. dirhodum, Sitobion avenae (Fabricius) (Homoptera: Aphididae), and Rhopalosiphum padi (Linné) (Homoptera: Aphididae) indicated the following factors that affected their abundance: temperature in winter and host plant quality. The predictions apply only in areas where M. dirhodum is holocyclic and aphids do not overwinter in wheat stands.

• Klíčová slova
• Rhopalosiphum padi, Sitobion avenae, aphid, forecast, population dynamics,
• MeSH
• jedlá semena MeSH
• mšice * MeSH
• pšenice MeSH
• roční období MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Evropa MeSH

Aphid populations show periodic fluctuations and many causes are attributed to their dynamic. We investigated the regulation by temperature of the aphid populations composed of Metopolophium dirhodum, Sitobion avenae, and Rhopalosiphum padi on winter wheat using a 24 years long time series data. We computed the sum of daily temperatures above 5 °C, the threshold temperature for aphid development, and the sum of daily temperatures within the [0(threshold for wheat development),5] °C interval. Applying Generalised Additive Model framework we tested influences of temperature history expressed via degree days before the start of the aphid immigration on the length of their occurrence. We aimed to estimate the magnitude and direction of this influence, and how far to the past before the start of the aphid season the temperature effect goes and then identify processes responsible for the effect. We fitted four models that differed in the way of correcting for abundance in the previous year and in specification of temperature effects. Abundance in the previous year did not affect the length of period of aphid population growth on wheat. The temperature effect on the period length increased up to 123 days before the start of the current season, i.e. when wheat completed vernalization. Increased sum of daily temperatures above 5 °C and the sum of daily temperatures within the [0,5] °C interval both shortened the length of period of aphid population growth. Stronger effect of the latter suggests that wheat can escape from aphid attacks if during winter temperatures range from 0 to 5 °C. The temperature influence was not homogeneous in time. The strongest effect of past temperature was about 50 to 80 and 90 to 110 days before the beginning of the current aphid season indicating important role of termination of aphid egg dormancy and egg hatching.

• MeSH
• mšice fyziologie   MeSH
• počet parazitárních vajíček MeSH
• populační dynamika MeSH
• pšenice parazitologie   MeSH
• roční období MeSH
• rozmnožování fyziologie   MeSH
• statistické modely * MeSH
• teplota MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH