BACKGROUND: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are an important therapeutic pillar in metastatic urothelial carcinoma (mUC). The occurrence of immune-related adverse events (irAEs) appears to be associated with improved outcomes in observational studies. However, these associations are likely affected by immortal time bias and do not represent causal effects. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of irAEs on outcomes while correcting for immortal time bias, using target trial emulation (TTE). METHODS: TTE was contrasted to adjusted naïve and time-updated Cox models. We performed a multi-institutional retrospective study involving mUC patients under ICI. The primary objective was to assess the impact of irAEs on progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Secondary endpoints included the influence of irAEs on objective response rates (ORRs) to ICI and the influence of systemic corticosteroids on outcomes. RESULTS: Among 335 patients (median age: 69 yrs), 69.6% received ICI in the second line or further lines. During a median follow-up of 21.1 months, 122 (36.4%) patients developed irAEs of any grade (grade ≥ 3: 14.9%). Hazard ratios (HRs) for PFS ranged from 0.37 for naïve adjusted Cox model to 0.88 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.59-1.30) with time-updated covariates, and from 0.41 to 1.10 (95% CI, 0.69-1.75) for OS. TTE accounting for immortal time bias yielded a HR of 1.02 (95% CI, 0.72-1.44) for PFS, and 0.90 (95% CI, 0.62-1.30) for OS. In contrast to the naïve Cox model (HR = 2.26, 95% CI 1.26-4.05), the presence of irAEs was no longer a predictive factor for improved ORR in time-updated Cox models (HR = 1.27, 95% CI 0.68-2.36) and TTE (HR = 1.43, 95% CI 0.89-2.29). In patients with irAEs, systemic corticosteroids did not negatively impact survival. CONCLUSION: Using TTE, we were able to show that the occurrence of irAEs is no longer associated with better survival or improved response rates to ICI in mUC patients, in contrast to the naïve analysis. These findings demonstrate that TTE is a suitable formal framework to avoid immortal time bias in studies with time-dependent non-interventional exposures.

• Klíčová slova
• Adverse events, Immortal time bias, Immune checkpoint inhibitors, Immunotherapy, Metastatic, Target trial emulation, Urothelial cancer,
• MeSH
• inhibitory kontrolních bodů * škodlivé účinky   terapeutické užití   MeSH
• karcinom z přechodných buněk farmakoterapie   mortalita   imunologie   MeSH
• lidé středního věku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• metastázy nádorů MeSH
• nádory močového měchýře farmakoterapie   mortalita   imunologie   patologie   MeSH
• nežádoucí účinky léčiv etiologie   MeSH
• retrospektivní studie MeSH
• senioři nad 80 let MeSH
• senioři MeSH
• urologické nádory farmakoterapie   mortalita   imunologie   patologie   MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé středního věku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• senioři nad 80 let MeSH
• senioři MeSH
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• multicentrická studie MeSH
• Názvy látek
• inhibitory kontrolních bodů * MeSH

IMPORTANCE: Within 2 decades of onset, 80% of untreated patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) convert to a phase of irreversible disability accrual termed secondary progressive MS. The association between disease-modifying treatments (DMTs), and this conversion has rarely been studied and never using a validated definition. OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between the use, the type of, and the timing of DMTs with the risk of conversion to secondary progressive MS diagnosed with a validated definition. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Cohort study with prospective data from 68 neurology centers in 21 countries examining patients with relapsing-remitting MS commencing DMTs (or clinical monitoring) between 1988-2012 with minimum 4 years' follow-up. EXPOSURES: The use, type, and timing of the following DMTs: interferon beta, glatiramer acetate, fingolimod, natalizumab, or alemtuzumab. After propensity-score matching, 1555 patients were included (last follow-up, February 14, 2017). MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE: Conversion to objectively defined secondary progressive MS. RESULTS: Of the 1555 patients, 1123 were female (mean baseline age, 35 years [SD, 10]). Patients initially treated with glatiramer acetate or interferon beta had a lower hazard of conversion to secondary progressive MS than matched untreated patients (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.61-0.81; P < .001; 5-year absolute risk, 12% [49 of 407] vs 27% [58 of 213]; median follow-up, 7.6 years [IQR, 5.8-9.6]), as did fingolimod (HR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.22-0.62; P < .001; 5-year absolute risk, 7% [6 of 85] vs 32% [56 of 174]; median follow-up, 4.5 years [IQR, 4.3-5.1]); natalizumab (HR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.43-0.86; P = .005; 5-year absolute risk, 19% [16 of 82] vs 38% [62 of 164]; median follow-up, 4.9 years [IQR, 4.4-5.8]); and alemtuzumab (HR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.32-0.85; P = .009; 5-year absolute risk, 10% [4 of 44] vs 25% [23 of 92]; median follow-up, 7.4 years [IQR, 6.0-8.6]). Initial treatment with fingolimod, alemtuzumab, or natalizumab was associated with a lower risk of conversion than initial treatment with glatiramer acetate or interferon beta (HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.44-0.99; P = .046); 5-year absolute risk, 7% [16 of 235] vs 12% [46 of 380]; median follow-up, 5.8 years [IQR, 4.7-8.0]). The probability of conversion was lower when glatiramer acetate or interferon beta was started within 5 years of disease onset vs later (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.61-0.98; P = .03; 5-year absolute risk, 3% [4 of 120] vs 6% [2 of 38]; median follow-up, 13.4 years [IQR, 11-18.1]). When glatiramer acetate or interferon beta were escalated to fingolimod, alemtuzumab, or natalizumab within 5 years vs later, the HR was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.66-0.88; P < .001; 5-year absolute risk, 8% [25 of 307] vs 14% [46 of 331], median follow-up, 5.3 years [IQR], 4.6-6.1). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among patients with relapsing-remitting MS, initial treatment with fingolimod, alemtuzumab, or natalizumab was associated with a lower risk of conversion to secondary progressive MS vs initial treatment with glatiramer acetate or interferon beta. These findings, considered along with these therapies' risks, may help inform decisions about DMT selection.

• MeSH
• alemtuzumab terapeutické užití   MeSH
• čas zasáhnout při rozvinutí nemoci MeSH
• dospělí MeSH
• fingolimod hydrochlorid terapeutické užití   MeSH
• glatiramer acetát terapeutické užití   MeSH
• imunologické faktory terapeutické užití   MeSH
• imunosupresiva terapeutické užití   MeSH
• interferon beta terapeutické užití   MeSH
• kohortové studie MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• natalizumab terapeutické užití   MeSH
• progrese nemoci MeSH
• relabující-remitující roztroušená skleróza farmakoterapie   MeSH
• Check Tag
• dospělí MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• multicentrická studie MeSH
• pozorovací studie MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH
• srovnávací studie MeSH
• Názvy látek
• alemtuzumab MeSH
• fingolimod hydrochlorid MeSH
• glatiramer acetát MeSH
• imunologické faktory MeSH
• imunosupresiva MeSH
• interferon beta MeSH
• natalizumab MeSH