Nejvíce citovaný článek - PubMed ID 25744153
Contrasting patterns of hot spell effects on morbidity and mortality for cardiovascular diseases in the Czech Republic, 1994-2009
It is acknowledged that climate change exacerbates social inequalities, and women have been reported as more vulnerable to heat than men in many studies in Europe, including the Czech Republic. This study aimed at investigating the associations between daily temperature and mortality in the Czech Republic in the light of a sex and gender perspective, taking into account other factors such as age and marital status. Daily mean temperature and individual mortality data recorded during the five warmest months of the year (from May to September) over the period 1995-2019 were used to fit a quasi-Poisson regression model, which included a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to account for the delayed and non-linear effects of temperature on mortality. The heat-related mortality risks obtained in each population group were expressed in terms of risk at the 99th percentile of summer temperature relative to the minimum mortality temperature. Women were found generally more at risk to die because of heat than men, and the difference was larger among people over 85 years old. Risks among married people were lower than risks among single, divorced, and widowed people, while risks in divorced women were significantly higher than in divorced men. This is a novel finding which highlights the potential role of gender inequalities in heat-related mortality. Our study underlines the relevance of including a sex and gender dimension in the analysis of the impacts of heat on the population and advocates the development of gender-based adaptation policies to extreme heat.
- Klíčová slova
- Czech Republic, DLNM, Heat stress, Mortality, Sex and gender inequalities,
- MeSH
- genderová rovnost * MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mortalita MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- teplota MeSH
- vysoká teplota * MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika epidemiologie MeSH
- Evropa MeSH
Spatial synoptic classification (SSC) is here first employed in assessing heat-related mortality and morbidity in Central Europe. It is applied for examining links between weather patterns and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality and morbidity in an extended summer season (16 May-15 September) during 1994-2009. As in previous studies, two SSC air masses (AMs)-dry tropical (DT) and moist tropical (MT)-are associated with significant excess CVD mortality in Prague, while effects on CVD hospital admissions are small and insignificant. Excess mortality for ischaemic heart diseases is more strongly associated with DT, while MT has adverse effect especially on cerebrovascular mortality. Links between the oppressive AMs and excess mortality relate also to conditions on previous days, as DT and MT occur in typical sequences. The highest CVD mortality deviations are found 1 day after a hot spell's onset, when temperature as well as frequency of the oppressive AMs are highest. Following this peak is typically DT- to MT-like weather transition, characterized by decrease in temperature and increase in humidity. The transition between upward (DT) and downward (MT) phases is associated with the largest excess CVD mortality, and the change contributes to the increased and more lagged effects on cerebrovascular mortality. The study highlights the importance of critically evaluating SSC's applicability and benefits within warning systems relative to other synoptic and epidemiological approaches. Only a subset of days with the oppressive AMs is associated with excess mortality, and regression models accounting for possible meteorological and other factors explain little of the mortality variance.
- Klíčová slova
- Cardiovascular diseases, Central Europe, Morbidity, Mortality, Spatial synoptic classification,
- MeSH
- kardiovaskulární nemoci epidemiologie mortalita MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- morbidita MeSH
- počasí * MeSH
- poruchy vyvolané tepelným stresem epidemiologie mortalita MeSH
- velkoměsta epidemiologie MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika epidemiologie MeSH
- velkoměsta epidemiologie MeSH
This study aimed to assess the impacts of heat waves during the summer of 2015 on mortality in the Czech Republic and to compare them with those of heat waves back to the previous record-breaking summer of 1994. We analyzed daily natural-cause mortality across the country's entire population. A mortality baseline was determined using generalized additive models adjusted for long-term trends, seasonal and weekly cycles, and identified heat waves. Mortality deviations from the baseline were calculated to quantify excess mortality during heat waves, defined as periods of at least three consecutive days with mean daily temperature higher than the 95th percentile of annual distribution. The summer of 2015 was record-breaking in the total duration of heat waves as well as their total heat load. Consequently, the impact of the major heat wave in 2015 on the increase in excess mortality relative to the baseline was greater than during the previous record-breaking heat wave in 1994 (265% vs. 240%). Excess mortality was comparable among the younger age group (0-64 years) and the elderly (65+ years) in the 1994 major heat wave while it was significantly larger among the elderly in 2015. The results suggest that the total heat load of a heat wave needs to be considered when assessing its impact on mortality, as the cumulative excess heat factor explains the magnitude of excess mortality during a heat wave better than other characteristics such as duration or average daily mean temperature during the heat wave. Comparison of the mortality impacts of the 2015 and 1994 major heat waves suggests that the recently reported decline in overall heat-related mortality in Central Europe has abated and simple extrapolation of the trend would lead to biased conclusions even for the near future. Further research is needed toward understanding the additional mitigation measures required to prevent heat-related mortality in the Czech Republic and elsewhere.
- Klíčová slova
- Central Europe, excess heat factor, heat-related mortality, heat-wave,
- MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- meteorologické pojmy MeSH
- mortalita * trendy MeSH
- věkové faktory MeSH
- vysoká teplota škodlivé účinky MeSH
- Check Tag
- lidé MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- srovnávací studie MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika epidemiologie MeSH
The study examines spatial patterns of effects of high temperature extremes on cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic at a district level during 1994-2009. Daily baseline mortality for each district was determined using a single location-stratified generalized additive model. Mean relative deviations of mortality from the baseline were calculated on days exceeding the 90th percentile of mean daily temperature in summer, and they were correlated with selected demographic, socioeconomic, and physical-environmental variables for the districts. Groups of districts with similar characteristics were identified according to socioeconomic status and urbanization level in order to provide a more general picture than possible on the district level. We evaluated lagged patterns of excess mortality after hot spell occurrences in: (i) urban areas vs. predominantly rural areas; and (ii) regions with different overall socioeconomic level. Our findings suggest that climatic conditions, altitude, and urbanization generally affect the spatial distribution of districts with the highest excess cardiovascular mortality, while socioeconomic status did not show a significant effect in the analysis across the Czech Republic as a whole. Only within deprived populations, socioeconomic status played a relevant role as well. After taking into account lagged effects of temperature on excess mortality, we found that the effect of hot spells was significant in highly urbanized regions, while most excess deaths in rural districts may be attributed to harvesting effects.
- Klíčová slova
- cardiovascular disease, heat stress, mortality, socioeconomic status, spatial differences,
- MeSH
- demografie MeSH
- dospělí MeSH
- kardiovaskulární nemoci epidemiologie mortalita MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- městské obyvatelstvo statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- poruchy vyvolané tepelným stresem epidemiologie mortalita MeSH
- roční období MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- socioekonomické faktory MeSH
- venkovské obyvatelstvo statistika a číselné údaje MeSH
- vysoká teplota škodlivé účinky MeSH
- zeměpis MeSH
- Check Tag
- dospělí MeSH
- lidé středního věku MeSH
- lidé MeSH
- mužské pohlaví MeSH
- senioři nad 80 let MeSH
- senioři MeSH
- ženské pohlaví MeSH
- Publikační typ
- časopisecké články MeSH
- práce podpořená grantem MeSH
- Geografické názvy
- Česká republika epidemiologie MeSH