Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.

• Klíčová slova
• birds, climate change, meta-analysis, offspring production,
• MeSH
• klimatické změny * MeSH
• kur domácí MeSH
• roční období MeSH
• rozmnožování MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• zvláštnosti životní historie * MeSH
• Check Tag
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• metaanalýza MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH

Predation is the most common cause of nest failure in birds. While nest predation is relatively well studied in general, our knowledge is unevenly distributed across the globe and taxa, with, for example, limited information on shorebirds breeding in subtropics. Importantly, we know fairly little about the timing of predation within a day. Here, we followed 444 nests of the red-wattled lapwing (Vanellus indicus), a ground-nesting shorebird, for a sum of 7,828 days to estimate a nest predation rate, and continuously monitored 230 of these nests for a sum of 2,779 days to reveal how the timing of predation changes over the day and season in a subtropical desert. We found that 312 nests (70%) hatched, 76 nests (17%) were predated, 23 (5%) failed for other reasons, and 33 (7%) had an unknown fate. Daily predation rate was 0.95% (95%CrI: 0.76% - 1.19%), which for a 30-day long incubation period translates into ~25% (20% - 30%) chance of nest being predated. Such a predation rate is low compared to most other avian species. Predation events (N = 25) were evenly distributed across day and night, with a tendency for increased predation around sunrise, and evenly distributed also across the season, although night predation was more common later in the season, perhaps because predators reduce their activity during daylight to avoid extreme heat. Indeed, nests were never predated when midday ground temperatures exceeded 45℃. Whether the diel activity pattern of resident predators undeniably changes across the breeding season and whether the described predation patterns hold for other populations, species, and geographical regions await future investigations.

• Klíčová slova
• continuous monitoring, diel pattern, diel timing, nest predation, predation rate, red‐wattled lapwing, shorebirds, survival analyses, timing of predation, waders,
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH