Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.

Aix Marseille University University of Avignon Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique Aix en Provence 13545 France

Arctic Centre University of Groningen Groningen 9718CW the Netherlands

Australian Antarctic Division Department of Agriculture Water and the Environment 7050 Kingston TAS Australia

Bioeconomy Research Team Novia University of Applied Sciences Raseborg FI 10600 Finland

Biology Department Bates College Lewiston ME 04240

Biology Department Grand Valley State University Allendale MI 49401 9403

BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics Biodiversity and Land Planning Research Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources Vairăo 4485 661 Portugal

British Antarctic Survey Natural Environment Research Council Cambridge CB3 0ET UK

Cavanilles Institute of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology University of Valencia Valencia E46080 Spain

Center for the Advanced Study of Collective Behaviour University of Konstanz Konstanz 78457 Germany

Centre for Conservation Science Royal Society for the Protection of Birds Aberdeen AB10 1YP UK

Conservation Services Division Ezemvelo KwaZulu Natal Wildlife Cascades 3202 South Africa

Cornell Lab of Ornithology Cornell University Ithaca NY 14850

Departament de Vertebrats Museu de Ciències Naturals de Barcelona Barcelona 08003 Spain

Departament of Museum Technologies Zoology Museum Tomsk State University Tomsk 634050 Russia

Departamento de Biodiversidad y Gestión Ambiental Universidad de León León 24071 Spain

Departamento de Ecología Evolutiva Instituto de Ecología Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Ciudad de México 04510 Mexico

Department of Anatomy Cellular Biology and Zoology University of Extremadura Badajoz E 506071 Spain

Department of Animal Ecology and Systematics Justus Liebig University Giessen 35392 Germany

Department of Animal Ecology Netherlands Institute of Ecology Wageningen 6708PB the Netherlands

Department of Behavioural Ecology Faculty of Biological Sciences University of Wrocław Wrocław 50 335 Poland

Department of Biological Sciences Edward J Meeman Biological Station and Center for Biodiversity Research University of Memphis Memphis TN 38152

Department of Biology and Center for Environmental Studies Virginia Commonwealth University Richmond VA 23284

Department of Biology and Geology Universidad Rey Juan Carlos Móstoles 28933 Spain

Department of Biology Bowdoin College Brunswick ME 04011

Department of Biology Norwegian University of Science and Technology Trondheim 7491 Norway

Department of Biology University of Kentucky Lexington KY 40506 0225

Department of Biology University of Konstanz Konstanz 78457 Germany

Department of Biology University of Saskatchewan Saskatoon S7N 5E2 Canada

Department of Biology University of Turku Turku 20014 Finland

Department of Biology University of Wisconsin Stevens Point Stevens Point WI 54481

Department of Biosciences University of Helsinki Helsinki FI 00014 Finland

Department of Biotechnology Daugavpils University Daugavpils 5401 Latvia

Department of Collective Behavior Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior Konstanz 78457 Germany

Department of Ecology and Evolution University of Lausanne Lausanne CH 1015 Switzerland

Department of Ecology and Genetics University of Oulu Oulu 90014 Finland

Department of Ecology Evolution and Environmental Biology Columbia University New York NY 10027

Department of Ecology Faculty of Environmental Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Prague 16521 Czech Republic

Department of Ecology Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Uppsala SE 750 07 Sweden

Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences University of Eastern Finland Joensuu FI 80101 Finland

Department of Environmental Conservation Institute of Biological Sciences Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University of Warsaw Warsaw 01 938 Poland

Department of Evolutionary Ecology Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas Madrid 28006 Spain

Department of Experimental Zoology and Evolutionary Biology Faculty of Biology University of Łódź Łódź 90 237 Poland

Department of Life Sciences Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre University of Coimbra Coimbra 3000 456 Portugal

Department of Natural Sciences Tromsø University Museum Tromsø NO 9037 Norway

Department of Physical Sciences College of Science and Engineering James Cook University Townsville QLD 4811 Australia

Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology Behavioural Ecology Group ELTE Eötvös Loránd University Budapest H 1117 Hungary

Department of Vertebrate Zoology and Anthropology Szczecin University Szczecin 71 415 Poland

Department of Vertebrate Zoology and Ecology Tomsk State University Tomsk 634050 Russia

Department of Zoology and Animal Ecology Faculty of Biology University of Latvia Riga 1004 Latvia

Department of Zoology and Ecology College of Science and Engineering James Cook University Townsville QLD 4811 Australia

Department of Zoology and Nature Protection Institute of Biological Sciences Maria Curie Skłodowska University Lublin 20 033 Poland

Department of Zoology and Parasitology Voronezh State University Voronezh 394006 Russia

Department of Zoology Faculty of Science Palacky University Olomouc 771 46 Czech Republic

Department of Zoology Institute of Biology Karelian Research Center Russian Academy of Sciences Petrozavodsk 185910 Russia

Department of Zoology Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences University of Tartu Tartu 51010 Estonia

Division of Conservation Biology Institute of Ecology and Evolution University of Bern Bern CH 3012 Switzerland

Division of Ecology and Evolution Research School of Biology The Australian National University Canberra ACT 2601 Australia

Division of Organisms and Environment School of Biosciences Cardiff University Cardiff CF10 3AX UK

Ecologie Systématique Evolution Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique Université Paris Saclay Gif sur Yvette 91190 France

Environmental and Marine Biology Åbo Akademi University Turku 20500 Finland

Estación Biológica de Dońana CSIC Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas Seville 41092 Spain

Evolutionary Ecology Unit Department of Biology Lund University Lund SE 223 62 Sweden

FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology University of Cape Town Rondebosch 7701 South Africa

Groupe d'Etudes et de Protection des Busards Beurville 52110 France

Hastings Reservation University of California Berkeley Carmel Valley CA 93924

Hradec Králové 500 02 Czech Republic

Illinois Natural History Survey Prairie Research Institute University of Illinois Urbana Champaign IL 61820

Institute for Game and Wildlife Research IREC Ciudad Real E 13005 Spain

Institute of Avian Research Vogelwarte Helgoland head office Wilhelmshaven Wilhelmshaven 26386 Germany

Institute of Biochemistry and Biophysics Polish Academy of Sciences Warsaw 02 106 Poland

Institute of Biological Problems of the North Far Eastern Branch Russian Academy of Sciences Magadan 685000 Russia

Institute of Marine Sciences OKEANOS University of the Azores Horta 9901 862 Portugal

Institute of Nature Conservation Polish Academy of Sciences Kraków 31 120 Poland

Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology Ural Branch Russian Academy of Sciences Yekaterinburg 620144 Russia

Institute of Zoology Poznań University of Life Sciences Poznań 60 625 Poland

Integrative Ecology Research Group Eötvös Loránd Research Network Eötvös Loránd University The Hungarian Natural History Museum Budapest H 1117 Hungary

Konrad Lorenz Institute of Ethology University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna 1160 Austria

Laboratorio de Biología de la Conservación Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas Corrientes 3400 Argentina

Laboratory of Molecular Zoology National Academy of Sciences Minsk 220072 Belarus

Laboratory of Ornithology Scientific and Practical Center for Biological Resources of National Academy of Sciences of Belarus Minsk 220072 Belarus

Luontotutkimus Solonen Oy Helsinki FI 00960 Finland

Museum of Natural History Olomouc 771 73 Czech Republic

Novia University of Applied Sciences Raseborg FI 10600 Finland

Ornithological Station Faculty of Biological Sciences University of Wrocław Wrocław 50 335 Poland

Panurus Monitoringi Inwentaryzacje Opinie Przyrodnicze Osieczna 64 113 Poland

Private address 64200 Biarritz France

Private address 9870 Sindal Denmark

Private address CH 1446 Baulmes Switzerland

Private address Cormost 10800 France

Private address FI 14870 Tuulos Finland

Pyrenean Institute of Ecology Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas Jaca 22700 Spain

Research Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources Laboratório Associado Instituto Superior de Agronomia Universidade de Lisboa Lisbon 1349 017 Portugal

Research Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources Laboratório Associado Universidade do Porto Vairăo 4485 601 Portugal

School of Biological Sciences Lighthouse Field Station University of Aberdeen Cromarty IV11 8YL UK

School of Biological Sciences University of Aberdeen Aberdeen AB24 2TZ UK

School of Life Sciences Centre for Functional Biodiversity University of KwaZulu Natal Pietermaritzburg 3201 South Africa

Shamir Research Institute and Department of Geography and Environmental Studies University of Haifa Haifa 3498838 Israel

SLU Swedish Species Information Centre Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Uppsala SE 750 07 Sweden

Swiss Ornithological Institute Sempach CH 6204 Switzerland

Theoretical and Computation Ecology Lab Centre d'Estudis Acançats de Blanes Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas Blanes 17300 Spain

UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Penicuik EH26 0QB UK

USDA Forest Service International Institute of Tropical Forestry Sabana Field Research Station Luquillo 00773 PR

Weetangera Australian Capital Territory 2614 Australia

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The effect of climate change on avian offspring production: A global meta-analysis