AIM: Plant invasions often follow initial introduction with a considerable delay. The current non-native flora of a region may hence contain species that are not yet naturalized but may become so in the future, especially if climate change lifts limitations on species spread. In Europe, non-native garden plants represent a huge pool of potential future invaders. Here, we evaluate the naturalization risk from this species pool and how it may change under a warmer climate. LOCATION: Europe. METHODS: We selected all species naturalized anywhere in the world but not yet in Europe from the set of non-native European garden plants. For this subset of 783 species, we used species distribution models to assess their potential European ranges under different scenarios of climate change. Moreover, we defined geographical hotspots of naturalization risk from those species by combining projections of climatic suitability with maps of the area available for ornamental plant cultivation. RESULTS: Under current climate, 165 species would already find suitable conditions in > 5% of Europe. Although climate change substantially increases the potential range of many species, there are also some that are predicted to lose climatically suitable area under a changing climate, particularly species native to boreal and Mediterranean biomes. Overall, hotspots of naturalization risk defined by climatic suitability alone, or by a combination of climatic suitability and appropriate land cover, are projected to increase by up to 102% or 64%, respectively. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the risk of naturalization of European garden plants will increase with warming climate, and thus it is very likely that the risk of negative impacts from invasion by these plants will also grow. It is therefore crucial to increase awareness of the possibility of biological invasions among horticulturalists, particularly in the face of a warming climate.

Department of Biodiversity Macroecology and Biogeography University of Göttingen Büsgenweg 1 Göttingen 37077 Germany

Department of Invasion Ecology Institute of Botany The Czech Academy of Sciences Průhonice 25243 Czech Republic

Department of Invasion Ecology Institute of Botany The Czech Academy of Sciences Průhonice 25243 Czech Republic; Department of Ecology Faculty of Science Charles University Prague Viničná 7 Prague 12844 Czech Republic

Division of Conservation Biology Vegetation and Landscape Ecology Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research University of Vienna Rennweg 14 Vienna 1030 Austria

Division of Conservation Biology Vegetation and Landscape Ecology Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research University of Vienna Rennweg 14 Vienna 1030 Austria; Institute of Social Ecology Faculty for Interdisciplinary Studies Alps Adria University Schottenfeldgasse 29 Vienna 1070 Austria

Ecology Department of Biology University of Konstanz Universitätsstrasse 10 Konstanz 78457 Germany

Ecology Department of Biology University of Konstanz Universitätsstrasse 10 Konstanz 78457 Germany; School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences Durham University South Road Durham DH1 3LE UK

German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research Halle Jena Leipzig Deutscher Platz 5e Leipzig 04103 Germany

Institute of Evolution and Ecology University of Tübingen Auf der Morgenstelle 5 Tübingen 72076 Germany

Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine CNRS Grenoble 38000 France

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