Age affects mortality from diseases differently than it affects mortality from external causes, such as accidents. Exclusion of the latter leads to the "all-diseases" category. The age trajectories of mortality from all diseases are studied in the five most populated countries of the EU, and the shape of these 156 age trajectories is investigated in detail. The arithmetic mean of ages where mortality reaches a minimal value is 8.47 years with a 95% confidence interval of [8.08, 8.85] years. Two simple deterministic models fit the age trajectories on the two sides of the mortality minimum. The inverse relationship is valid in all cases prior to this mortality minimum and death rates exactly decreased to three thousandths of its original size during the first 3000 days. After the mortality minimum, the standard Gompertz model fits the data in 63 cases, and the Gompertz model extended by a small quadratic element fits the remaining 93 cases. This analysis indicates that the exponential increase begins before the age of 15 years and that it is overshadowed by non-biological causes. Therefore, the existence of a mechanism switching that would explain the exponential increase in mortality after the age of 35 years is unlikely.

University of Hradec Králové Hradec Kralove Czech Republic

Citace poskytuje Crossref.org

Database of age trajectories of mortality in 110 countries and web application: Data report

Why Does Child Mortality Decrease With Age? Modeling the Age-Associated Decrease in Mortality Rate Using WHO Metadata From 25 Countries

Why Does Child Mortality Decrease With Age? Modeling the Age-Associated Decrease in Mortality Rate Using WHO Metadata From 14 European Countries

Modeling the Age-Associated Decrease in Mortality Rate for Congenital Anomalies of the Central Nervous System Using WHO Metadata From Nine European Countries