Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces.

Arctic Centre University of Lapland Rovaniemi Finland

Biology Department Grand Valley State University Allendale MI USA

Centre for African Conservation Ecology Nelson Mandela University Port Elizabeth South Africa

Centre for Environmental Sciences Hasselt University Hasselt Belgium

Centre for Integrative Ecology School of Life and Environmental Sciences Deakin University Burwood VIC Australia

Climate Change and Extremes in Alpine Regions Research Centre CERC Davos Switzerland

Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development Utrecht University Utrecht the Netherlands

CREAF Cerdanyola del Vallès Barcelona Catalonia Spain

Département des Sciences de l'environnement et Centre d'études nordiques Université du Québec à Trois Rivières Trois Rivières Québec Canada

Department of Biological Sciences Florida International University Miami FL USA

Department of Biology Aarhus University Aarhus Denmark

Department of Biology and Environmental Science Marietta College Marietta OH USA

Department of Biology and Environmental Sciences University of Gothenburg Gothenburg Sweden

Department of Biology Memorial University St John's NL Canada

Department of Biology Queen's University Kingston Ontario ON Canada

Department of Biotechnologies and Life Sciences University of Insubria Varese Italy

Department of Chemical and Biological Metrology Federal Institute of Metrology METAS Bern Wabern Switzerland

Department of Ecology and Genetics University of Oulu Oulu Finland

Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies University of Zurich Zurich Switzerland

Department of Geography University of British Columbia Vancouver BC Canada

Department of Geosciences and Geography University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland

Department of Physiological Diversity Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Leipzig Germany

Dutch Research Council The Hague The Netherlands

Environmental Science Center Qatar University Doha Qatar

German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research Halle Jena Leipzig Leipzig Germany

Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre Gothenburg Sweden

Government of British Columbia Vancouver BC Canada

Institute of Biology and Environmental Sciences University of Oldenburg Oldenburg Germany

Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology University of Greifswald Greifswald Germany

Institute of Hydrobiology Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences Ceske Budejovice Czech Republic

Komarov Botanical Institute St Petersburg Russia

Land Surface Atmosphere Interactions School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan Freising Germany

Natural Resources Canada Canadian Forest Service Great Lakes Forestry Centre Sault Ste Marie ON Canada

Research Centre for Ecological Change Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland

Research Group Plants and Ecosystems University of Antwerp Wilrijk Belgium

School of Environment Resources and Sustainability University of Waterloo Waterloo ON Canada

School of GeoSciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh Scotland UK

Section Systems Ecology Amsterdam Institute for Life and Environment Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam The Netherlands

Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL Birmensdorf Switzerland

Terra Nova National Park Parks Canada Agency Glovertown NL Canada

Threatened Endangered and Diversity Program Alaska Department of Fish and Game Anchorage USA

U S Geological Survey Fort Collins CO USA

Woodwell Climate Research Center Falmouth MA USA

WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF Davos Switzerland

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