Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.

Albanian Ornithological Society Rr Vaso Pasha Nd 4 Apt 3 1004 Tirana Albania

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Associazione FaunaViva Via Fumagalli 6 20143 Milano Italy

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BirdWatch Ireland Unit 20 Block D Bullford Business Campus Kilcoole Greystones County Wicklow Ireland

British Trust for Ornithology The Nunnery Thetford Norfolk IP24 2PU UK

Bulgarian Society for the Protection of Birds BirdLife Bulgaria Sofia 1111 Yavorov complex bl 71 en 1 ap 1 Sofia Bulgaria

Catalan Ornithological Institute Natural History Museum of Barcelona Plaça Leonardo da Vinci 4 5 08019 Barcelona Spain

Center for Biodiversity Research Maksima Gorkog 40 3 21000 Novi Sad Serbia

Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling University of St Andrews St Andrews UK

Conservation Ecology Group Department of Biosciences Durham University South Road Durham DH1 3LE UK

Croatian Society for Birds and Nature Protection Gundulićeva 19a HR 31000 Osijek Croatia

CSIC Cerdanyola del Vallès 08193 Spain

Czech Society for Ornithology Na Bělidle 34 15000 Prague 5 Czechia

Czech University of Life Sciences Faculty of Environmental Sciences Dept of Ecology Kamýcká 129 165 21 Prague 6 Suchdol Prague Czech Republic

Dansk Ornitologisk Forening Copenhagen Denmark

DDA Federation of German Avifaunists An den Speichern 2 D 48157 Münster Germany

Department of Biological Geological and Environmental Sciences University of Bologna Via F Selmi 3 40126 Bologna Italy

Department of Biology Lund University Lund Sweden

Department of Biology University of York YO10 5DD York UK

DOPPS BirdLife Slovenia Tržaška c 2 SI 1000 Ljubljana Slovenia

Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès Spain

Environmental Protection Agency of Montenegro 4 proleterske 19 81000 Podgorica Montenegro

Forest Science and Tecnology Centre Carretera vella de Sant Llorenç de Morunys km 2 25280 Sant Llorenç de Morunys Spain

German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research Halle Jena Leipzig Leipzig Germany

Hellenic Ornithological Society BirdLife Greece Agiou Konstantinou 52 Athens 10437 Greece

Inst of Biology Martin Luther Univ Halle Wittenberg Halle Germany

Institute for Biochemistry and Biology University of Potsdam Potsdam Germany

Institute for Environment and Nature Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development Radnicka cesta 80 10 000 Zagreb Croatia

Institute of Zoology Ilia State University Kakutsa Cholokashvili Ave 3 5 Tbilisi 0162 Georgia

Kosovo Ornithological Society Str Hysni Gashi no 28 Kalabri 10 000 Prishtinë Republic of Kosovo

Lithuanian Ornithological Society Naugarduko st 47 3 LT 03208 Vilnius Lithuania

Macedonian Ecological Society Blvd Boris Trajkovski Str 7 9a Skopje N Macedonia

Max Planck Institute of Animal Behaviour Am Obstberg 1 78315 Radolfzell Germany

MED Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture Environment and Development; LabOr Laboratório de Ornitologia Universidade de Évora Pólo da Mitra Apartado 94 7002 774 Évora Portugal

MME BirdLife Hungary 1121 Költő u 21 Budapest Hungary

Moldova State University A Mateevici str 60 Chişinău Republic of Moldova

Museum and Institute of Zoology Polish Academy of Sciences Wilcza 64 00 679 Warszawa Poland

Natagora Traverse des muses 1 5000 Namur Belgium

Nature reserve Roztochya Sichovyh Striltsiv 7 81070 Ivano Frankove Ukraine

Ornithological society Naše ptice Semira Frašte 6 71 000 Sarajevo Bosnia and Herzegovina

Polish Society for the Protection of Birds Odrowąża 24 05 270 Marki Poland

Pro Natura Donji Crnci bb 81412 Spuž Montenegro

Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences Radboud University Nijmegen The Netherlands

Sociedad Española de Ornitología Melquiades Biencinto 34 28053 Madrid Spain

Sociedade Portuguesa para o Estudo das Aves Av Almirante Gago Coutinho 46A 1700 031 Lisboa Portugal

Society for Birds and Nature Protection Leova Republic of Moldova

Society for Research and Protection of Biodiversity Mladena Stojanovica 2 78 000 Banja Luka Bosnia and Herzegovina

Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology Nijmegen The Netherlands

Swiss Ornithological Institute Seerose 1 6204 Sempach Switzerland

TAA Dzikaja pryroda Parnikovaya Street 11 office 4 Minsk 220114 Belarus

The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology Finnish Museum of Natural History University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland

Ukrainian Society for the Protection of Birds P O Box 33 Kyiv 01103 Ukraine

University of Novi Sad Faculty of Sciences Department of Biology and Ecology Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3 Novi Sad 21000 Serbia

University of Nyíregyháza 4400 Sóstói út 31 b Nyíregyháza Hungary

WWF Turkey Büyük Postane Caddesi No 19 Kat 5 34420 Bahçekapı Fatih İstanbul Turkey

York Environmental Sustainability Institute University of York York YO10 5NG UK

Zoological Museum of Lomonosov Moscow State University Bolshaya Nikitskaya Str 2 Moscow 125009 Russia

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Range and climate niche shifts in European and North American breeding birds

Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability