Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.

Biodiversity Unit Department of Biology Lund University Ecology Building S 223 62 Lund Sweden

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Center for Mediterranean Forest Research Centre Tecnològic Forestal de Catalunya InForest JRU Solsona 25280 Spain REAF Cerdanyola del Vallès 08193 Catalonia Spain CSIC Cerdanyola del Vallès 08193 Catalonia Spain

Conservation Ecology Group School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences Durham University South Road Durham DH1 3LE UK

Conservation Science Group Department of Zoology University of Cambridge Downing Street Cambridge CB2 3EJ UK BirdLife International The David Attenborough Building Pembroke Street Cambridge CB2 3QZ UK

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European Bird Census Council Post Office Box 6521 6503 GA Nijmegen Netherlands Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology Post Office Box 6521 6503 GA Nijmegen Netherlands Department of Animal Ecology and Ecophysiology Institute for Water and Wetland Research Radboud University Post Office Box 9010 6500 GL Nijmegen Netherlands

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Institute for Environmental Studies Faculty of Science Charles University Prague Czech Republic Department of Zoology and Laboratory of Ornithology Faculty of Science Palacký University Olomouc 17 Listopadu 50 771 43 Olomouc Czech Republic

Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences University of Tartu Vanemuise Street 46 51014 Tartu Estonia Estonian Ornithological Society Veski 4 51005 Tartu Estonia

Institute of Environmental Sciences University of Nyíregyháza Sóstói út 31 b 4400 Nyíregyháza Hungary

Institute of Integrative Biology University of Liverpool Crown Street Liverpool L69 3BX UK

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Museum and Institute of Zoology Polish Academy of Sciences Wilcza 64 00 679 Warszawa Poland

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Ogólnopolskie Towarzystwo Ochrony Ptaków Odrowąża 24 05 270 Marki Poland

Royal Society for the Protection of Birds Centre for Conservation Science The Lodge Sandy Bedfordshire SG19 2DL UK

Royal Society for the Protection of Birds Centre for Conservation Science The Lodge Sandy Bedfordshire SG19 2DL UK Conservation Science Group Department of Zoology University of Cambridge Downing Street Cambridge CB2 3EJ UK

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Sociedad Española de Ornitología BirdLife Melquiades Biencinto 34 28053 Madrid Spain

Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology Post Office Box 6521 6503 GA Nijmegen Netherlands Department of Animal Ecology and Ecophysiology Institute for Water and Wetland Research Radboud University Post Office Box 9010 6500 GL Nijmegen Netherlands

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The Helsinki Lab of Ornithology Finnish Museum of Natural History Post Office Box 17 00014 University of Helsinki Finland

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