Countrywide analysis of heat- and cold-related mortality trends in the Czech Republic: growing inequalities under recent climate warming

. 2024 Feb 01 ; 53 (1) : .

Jazyk angličtina Země Anglie, Velká Británie Médium print

Typ dokumentu metaanalýza, časopisecké články

Perzistentní odkaz   https://www.medvik.cz/link/pmid37857363

Grantová podpora
857340 European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under

BACKGROUND: Only little is known about trends in temperature-mortality associations among the most vulnerable subgroups, especially in the areas of central and eastern Europe, which are considered major climatic hotspots in terms of heatwave exposure. Thus, we aimed to assess trends in temperature-related mortality in the Czech Republic by sex, age and cause of death, and to quantify the temporal evolution of possible inequalities. METHODS: We collected daily time series of all-cause (1987-2019) and cause-specific (1994-2019) mortality by sex and age category, and population-weighted daily mean 2-metre temperatures for each region of the Czech Republic. We applied a quasi-Poisson regression model to estimate the trends in region-specific temperature-mortality associations, with distributed lag non-linear models and multivariate random-effects meta-analysis to derive average associations across the country. We then calculated mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures and implemented the indicator of sex- and age-dependent inequalities. RESULTS: We observed a similar risk of mortality due to cold temperatures for men and women. Conversely, for warm temperatures, a higher risk was observed for women. Results by age showed a clear pattern of increasing risk due to non-optimum temperatures with increasing age category. The relative risk (RR) related to cold was considerably attenuated in most of the studied subgroups during the study period, whereas an increase in the RR associated with heat was seen in the overall population, in women, in the age category 90+ years and with respect to respiratory causes. Moreover, underlying sex- and age-dependent inequalities experienced substantial growth. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest ongoing adaptation to cold temperatures. Mal/adaptation to hot temperatures occurred unequally among population subgroups and resulted in growing inequalities between the sexes and among age categories.

Zobrazit více v PubMed

Copernicus Climate Change Service. Climate Indicators, Temperature. 2022. https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-indicators/temperature (3 February 2023, date last accessed).

Copernicus Climate Change Service. Copernicus: Summer 2022 Europe’s Hottest on Record. 2022. https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-summer-2022-europes-hottest-record (3 February 2023, date last accessed).

van Daalen KR, Romanello M, Rocklöv J. et al. The 2022 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: towards a climate resilient future. Lancet Public Health 2022;7:e942–65. PubMed PMC

Murray CJL, Aravkin AY, Zheng P. et al. Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 2020;396:1223–49. PubMed PMC

Zhao Q, Guo Y, Ye T. et al. Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study. Lancet Planet Health 2021;5:e415–25. PubMed

Martínez-Solanas E, Quijal-Zamorano M, Achebak H. et al. Projections of temperature-attributable mortality in Europe: a time series analysis of 147 contiguous regions in 16 countries. Lancet Planet Health 2021;5:e446–54. PubMed

Gasparrini A, Guo Y, Sera F. et al. Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios. Lancet Planet Health 2017;1:e360–67. PubMed PMC

Quijal-Zamorano M, Martínez-Solanas È, Achebak H. et al. Seasonality reversal of temperature attributable mortality projections due to previously unobserved extreme heat in Europe. Lancet Planet Health 2021;5:e573–75. PubMed

Arbuthnott K, Hajat S, Heaviside C, Vardoulakis S.. Changes in population susceptibility to heat and cold over time: assessing adaptation to climate change. Environ Health 2016;15(Suppl 1):33.doi: 10.1186/s12940-016-0102-7 PubMed DOI PMC

Gasparrini A, Guo Y, Hashizume M. et al. Temporal variation in heat–mortality associations: a multicountry study. Environ Health Perspect 2015;123:1200–207. PubMed PMC

Achebak H, Devolder D, Ballester J.. Heat-related mortality trends under recent climate warming in Spain: a 36-year observational study. PLoS Med 2018;15:e1002617. PubMed PMC

Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Sera F, Guo Y. et al. A multi-country analysis on potential adaptive mechanisms to cold and heat in a changing climate. Environ Int 2018;111:239–46. PubMed

Chung Y, Yang D, Gasparrini A. et al. Changing susceptibility to non-optimum temperatures in Japan, 1972-2012: the role of climate, demographic, and socioeconomic factors. Environ Health Perspect 2018;126:057002. PubMed PMC

Achebak H, Devolder D, Ballester J.. Trends in temperature-related age-specific and sex-specific mortality from cardiovascular diseases in Spain: a national time-series analysis. Lancet Planet Health 2019;3:e297–306. PubMed

Sera F, Hashizume M, Honda Y. et al. Air conditioning and heat-related mortality: a multi-country longitudinal study. Epidemiology 2020;31:779–87. PubMed

Ordanovich D, Tobías A, Ramiro D.. Temporal variation of the temperature-mortality association in Spain: a nationwide analysis. Environ Health 2023;22:5. PubMed PMC

McMichael AJ, Woodruff RE, Hales S.. Climate change and human health: present and future risks. Lancet 2006;367:859–69. PubMed

Ellena M, Ballester J, Costa G, Achebak H.. Evolution of temperature-attributable mortality trends looking at social inequalities: an observational case study of urban maladaptation to cold and heat. Environ Res 2022;214:114082. PubMed

Achebak H, Devolder D, Ingole V, Ballester J.. Reversal of the seasonality of temperature-attributable mortality from respiratory diseases in Spain. Nat Commun 2020;11:2457. PubMed PMC

de Schrijver E, Bundo M, Ragettli MS. et al. Nationwide analysis of the heat-and cold-related mortality trends in Switzerland between 1969 and 2017: the role of population aging. Environ Health Perspect 2022;130:37001.DOI:10.1289/EHP9835. PubMed DOI PMC

Balmain BN, Sabapathy S, Louis M, Morris NR.. Aging and thermoregulatory control: the clinical implications of exercising under heat stress in older individuals. Biomed Res Int 2018;2018:8306154.DOI:10.1155/2018/8306154. PubMed DOI PMC

Atsumi A, Ueda K, Irie F. et al. Relationship between cold temperature and cardiovascular mortality, with assessment of effect modification by individual characteristics - Ibaraki prefectural health study. Circ J 2013;77:1854–61. PubMed

Moghadamnia MT, Ardalan A, Mesdaghinia A, Keshtkar A, Naddafi K, Yekaninejad MS.. Ambient temperature and cardiovascular mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis. PeerJ 2017;5:e3574. PubMed PMC

de Schrijver E, Royé D, Gasparrini A, Franco OH, Vicedo-Cabrera AM.. Exploring vulnerability to heat and cold across urban and rural populations in Switzerland. Environ Res Health 2023;1:025003. PubMed PMC

Czech Statistical Office. Population – Annual Time Series. 2023. https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/population_hd (3 February 2023, date last accessed).

Czech Statistical Office. Czech Demographic Handbook - 2021. 2023. https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/czech-demographic-handbook-2021 (15 June 2023, date last accessed).

Sobotka T, Št'astná A, Zeman K, Hamplová D, Kantorová V.. Czech Republic: a rapid transformation of fertility and family behaviour after the collapse of state socialism. DemRes 2008;19:403–54.

Smetkowski M. Regional disparities in central and eastern european countries: trends, drivers and prospects. Eur-Asia Stud 2013;65:1529–54.

European Institute for Gender Equality. Gender Equality Index. 2023. https://eige.europa.eu/gender-equality-index/2019/CZ (16 June 2023, date last accessed).

Eurostat. GISCO: Geographical Information and Maps. 2023. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/gisco/geodata/reference-data/population-distribution-demography/geostat (14 June 2023, date last accessed).

Cornes RC, van der Schrier G, van den Besselaar EJM, Jones PD.. An ensemble version of the E-OBS temperature and precipitation data sets. JGR Atmospheres 2018;123:9391–409.

Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Kenward MG.. Distributed lag non-linear models. Stat Med 2010;29:2224–34. PubMed PMC

Sera F, Armstrong B, Blangiardo M, Gasparrini A.. An extended mixed-effects framework for meta-analysis. Stat Med 2019;38:5429–44. PubMed

Gasparrini A, Leone M.. Attributable risk from distributed lag models. BMC Med Res Methodol 2014;14:55.http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2288/14/55. PubMed PMC

Kaciuba-Uscilko H, Grucza R.. Gender differences in thermoregulation. Curr Opin Clin Nutr Metab Care 2001;4:533–36. PubMed

Wickham KA, Wallace PJ, Cheung SS.. Sex differences in the physiological adaptations to heat acclimation: a state-of-the-art review. Eur J Appl Physiol 2021;121:353–367. PubMed

van Steen Y, Ntarladima AM, Grobbee R, Karssenberg D, Vaartjes I.. Sex differences in mortality after heat waves: are elderly women at higher risk? Int Arch Occup Environ Health 2019;92:37–48. PubMed

Yanovich R, Ketko I, Charkoudian N.. Sex differences in human thermoregulation: Relevance for 2020 and beyond. Physiology (Bethesda) 2020;35:177–184. PubMed

Folkerts MA, Bröde P, Botzen WJW. et al. Sex differences in temperature-related all-cause mortality in the Netherlands. Int Arch Occup Environ Health 2022;95:249–58. PubMed PMC

O’Neill MS, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J.. Modifiers of the temperature and mortality association in seven US cities. Am J Epidemiol 2003;157:1074–82. PubMed

Son JY, Liu JC, Bell ML.. Temperature-related mortality: a systematic review and investigation of effect modifiers. Environ Res Lett 2019;14:073004.

Yong-Ook K, Lee W, Kim H, Cho Y.. Social isolation and vulnerability to heatwave-related mortality in the urban elderly population: a time-series multi-community study in Korea. Environ Int 2020;142:105868. PubMed

Anderson BG, Bell ML.. Weather-related mortality: how heat, cold, and heat waves affect mortality in the United States. Epidemiology 2009;20:205–13. PubMed PMC

Baccini M, Biggeri A, Accetta G. et al. Heat effects on mortality in 15 European cities. Epidemiology 2008;19:711–19. PubMed

Guo Y, Barnett AG, Pan X, Yu W, Tong S.. The impact of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China: a case-crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model. Environ Health Perspect 2011;119:1719–25. PubMed PMC

Huang Z, Lin H, Liu Y. et al. Individual-level and community-level effect modifiers of the temperature-mortality relationship in 66 Chinese communities. BMJ Open 2015;5:e009172.DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2015. PubMed DOI PMC

Kouis P, Kakkoura M, Ziogas K, Paschalidou A, Papatheodorou SI.. The effect of ambient air temperature on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in Thessaloniki, Greece. Sci Total Environ 2019;647:1351–58. PubMed

Czech Statistical Office. GDP, National Accounts. 2023. https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/gdp_national_accounts_ekon (3 February 2023, date last accessed).

Esmaeilzadeh F, Alimohamadi Y, Sepandi M, Khodamoradi F, Jalali P.. The comparing of infant mortality rate in different World Health Organization regions during 1990–2017. Gaz Egypt Paediatr Assoc 2021;69:1–7. doi: 10.1186/s43054-020-00048-6. DOI

Czech Statistical Office . Česká Republika od Roku 1989 v Číslech. 2023. In Czech only. https://www.czso.cz/csu/czso/ceska-republika-od-roku-1989-v-cislech-aktualizovano-1852023#13 (16 June, date last accessed).

Kenny GP, Yardley J, Brown C, Sigal RJ, Jay O.. Heat stress in older individuals and patients with common chronic diseases. CMAJ 2010;182:1053–60. PubMed PMC

Rai M, Breitner S, Wolf K, Peters A, Schneider A, Chen K.. Future temperature-related mortality considering physiological and socioeconomic adaptation: a modelling framework. Lancet Planet Health 2022;6:e784–92. PubMed

Ballester J, Quijal-Zamorano M, Méndez Turrubiates RF. et al. Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022. Nat Med 2023;29:1857–66. PubMed PMC

OECD. Regions and Cities at a Glance: Czech Republic.2022. https://oecd-cfe-eds.github.io/racg22-inmyplace/CZE.html#trends-in-regional-economic-disparities-in-the-last-decade (3 February 2023, date last accessed).

Urban A, Fonseca-Rodríguez O, Di Napoli C, Plavcová E.. Temporal changes of heat-attributable mortality in Prague, Czech Republic, over 1982–2019. Urban Clim 2022;44:101197.DOI:10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101197. DOI

Buckley JP, Samet JM, Richardson DB.. Does air pollution confound studies of temperature? Epidemiology 2014;25:242–45. PubMed

Hajat S, Vardoulakis S, Heaviside C, Eggen B.. Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. J Epidemiol Community Health 2014;68:641–48. PubMed

Lee WH, Lim YH, Dang TN. et al. An investigation on attributes of ambient temperature and diurnal temperature range on mortality in five east-Asian countries. Sci Rep 2017;7:10207. DOI:10.1038/s41598-017-10433-8. PubMed DOI PMC

Armstrong B, Sera F, Vicedo-Cabrera AM. et al. The role of humidity in associations of high temperature with mortality: a multicountry, multicity study. Environ Health Perspect 2019;127:109001. PubMed PMC

Najít záznam

Citační ukazatele

Nahrávání dat ...

Možnosti archivace

Nahrávání dat ...