Species are disappearing worldwide, and it is likely that the rate of their disappearance will increase. The most important factors responsible for this are assumed to be changes in climate and land use. To determine the probability of extinction of a given species, it must be viewed as a metapopulation composed of many populations. In plants, seeds are spread by wind or water (passive dispersers), unlike active dispersers, which can actively look for a suitable site of their species. Thus, while active dispersers can locate a suitable site, passive dispersers often fail to arrive at a suitable site. The following question arises: is it better for the survival of a metapopulation of passive dispersers to concentrate on conserving a few large populations, each of which will produce many propagules, or on many small populations, each of which will produce only few propagules? Here, we address the question of which of these strategies will maximize the likelihood of the survival of such a metapopulation, using orchids as a model. We concluded that small populations should be preferentially preserved. Small populations are more numerous and more likely to occur more widely in the region studied and therefore a larger proportion of the seeds they produce is more likely to land in suitable habitats than that produced by the fewer large populations. For conservation, there is a possibility to extend the results to other taxa. However, this must be carried out with caution and must consider the taxon in question.

Global Change Research Institute CAS Bělidla 986 4a 60300 Brno Czech Republic

Institute for Environmental Studies Faculty of Science Charles University Benátská 2 12900 Prague Czech Republic

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