BACKGROUND: Prognostic machine learning research in multiple sclerosis has been mainly focusing on black-box models predicting whether a patients' disability will progress in a fixed number of years. However, as this is a binary yes/no question, it cannot take individual disease severity into account. Therefore, in this work we propose to model the time to disease progression instead. Additionally, we use explainable machine learning techniques to make the model outputs more interpretable. METHODS: A preprocessed subset of 29,201 patients of the international data registry MSBase was used. Disability was assessed in terms of the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). We predict the time to significant and confirmed disability progression using random survival forests, a machine learning model for survival analysis. Performance is evaluated on a time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic and the precision-recall curves. Importantly, predictions are then explained using SHAP and Bellatrex, two explainability toolboxes, and lead to both global (population-wide) as well as local (patient visit-specific) insights. RESULTS: On the task of predicting progression in 2 years, the random survival forest achieves state-of-the-art performance, comparable to previous work employing a random forest. However, here the random survival forest has the added advantage of being able to predict progression over a longer time horizon, with AUROC >60% for the first 10 years after baseline. Explainability techniques further validated the model by extracting clinically valid insights from the predictions made by the model. For example, a clear decline in the per-visit probability of progression is observed in more recent years since 2012, likely reflecting globally increasing use of more effective MS therapies. CONCLUSION: The binary classification models found in the literature can be extended to a time-to-event setting without loss of performance, thus allowing a more comprehensive prediction of patient prognosis. Furthermore, explainability techniques proved to be key to reach a better understanding of the model and increase validation of its behaviour.

• MeSH
• algoritmy MeSH
• časové faktory MeSH
• dospělí MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• prognóza MeSH
• progrese nemoci * MeSH
• registrace MeSH
• ROC křivka MeSH
• roztroušená skleróza * patofyziologie   MeSH
• strojové učení * MeSH
• Check Tag
• dospělí MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate relationships between cholesterol profile, brain volumetric MRI, and clinical measures in a large observational cohort of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We included 1.505 patients with 4.966 time points including complete lipid, clinical, and imaging data. The time among lipid, brain MRI and clinical measures was under 90 days. Cross-sectional statistical analysis at baseline was performed using an adjusted linear regression and analysis of longitudinal lipid and MRI measures data was performed using adjusted linear mixed models. RESULTS: We found associations between higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and lower brain parenchymal fraction (BPF) at cross-sectional analysis at baseline (B = -0.43, CI 95%: -0.73, -0.12, p = 0.005), as well as in longitudinal analysis over follow-up (B = -0.32 ± 0.072, χ2 = 36.6; p = < 0.001). Higher HDL-C was also associated with higher T2-lesion volume in longitudinal analysis (B = 0.11 ± 0.023; χ2 = 23.04; p = < 0.001). We observed a weak negative association between low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels and BPF at baseline (B = -0.26, CI 95%: -0.4, -0.11, p = < 0.001) as well as in longitudinal analysis (B = -0.06 ± 0.03, χ2 = 4.46; p = 0.03). T2-LV did not show an association with LDL-C. We did not find any association between lipid measures and disability. The effect of lipid levels on MRI measures and disability was minimal (Cohen f2 < 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Our results contradict the previously described exclusively positive effect of HDL-C on brain atrophy in patients with MS. Higher LDL-C was weakly associated with higher brain atrophy but not with higher lesion burden.

• MeSH
• cholesterol krev   MeSH
• dospělí MeSH
• HDL-cholesterol * krev   MeSH
• kohortové studie MeSH
• LDL-cholesterol krev   MeSH
• lidé středního věku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• longitudinální studie MeSH
• magnetická rezonanční tomografie * MeSH
• mozek * diagnostické zobrazování   patologie   MeSH
• průřezové studie MeSH
• roztroušená skleróza * diagnostické zobrazování   krev   patologie   MeSH
• Check Tag
• dospělí MeSH
• lidé středního věku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• pozorovací studie MeSH

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Women with multiple sclerosis (MS) are at risk of disease reactivation in the early postpartum period. Ocrelizumab (OCR) is an anti-CD20 therapy highly effective at reducing MS disease activity. Data remain limited regarding use of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs), including OCR, and disease activity during peripregnancy periods. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using data from the MSBase Registry including pregnancies conceived after December 31, 2010, from women aged 18 years and older, with relapsing-remitting MS or clinically isolated syndrome. Women were classified by preconception exposure to DMTs, including OCR, rituximab (RTX), natalizumab (NAT), stratified into active (NAT-A; continued ≥28 weeks of gestation, restarted ≤1 month postpartum) or conservative (NAT-C; continued ≤4 weeks of gestation, restarted >1 month postpartum) strategies, dimethyl fumarate (DMF) or low-efficacy DMTs (interferon-beta, glatiramer acetate). Annualized relapse rates (ARRs) were calculated for 12-month prepregnancy, pregnancy, and 6-month postpartum periods. RESULTS: A total of 2,009 live births from 1,744 women were analyzed, including 73 live births from 69 women treated with preconception OCR. For OCR, no within-pregnancy relapse was observed and 3 women (4.1%) experienced 1 relapse in the postpartum period (ARR 0.09 [95% CI 0.02-0.27]). For NAT-A, 3 (3.7%) of 82 women relapsed during pregnancy (0.05 [0.01-0.15]) and 4 (4.9%) relapsed during postpartum (0.10 [0.03-0.26]). However, for NAT-C, 13 (15.9%) of 82 women relapsed within pregnancy (0.32 [0.20-0.51]) and 25 (30.5%) relapsed during postpartum (0.74 [0.50-1.06]). In the low-efficacy DMT group, 101 (7.6%) of 1,329 women experienced within-pregnancy relapse (0.12 [0.10-0.14]), followed by an increase in postpartum relapse activity with 234 women (17.6%) relapsing (0.43 [0.38-0.48]). This was similarly seen in the DMF group with 13 (7.9%) of 164 women experiencing within-pregnancy relapse (0.12 [0.06-0.20]) and 25 (15.2%) of 164 relapsing postpartum (0.39 [0.26-0.57]). Our RTX cohort had 0 of 24 women experiencing within-pregnancy relapse and 3 (12.5%) of 24 experiencing postpartum relapse. DISCUSSION: Women treated with OCR or NAT-A were observed to have low relapse rates during pregnancy and postpartum. NAT-C was associated with increased risk of relapses. There was no within-pregnancy relapse in our RTX cohort, although we caution overinterpretation due to our sample size. An effective DMT strategy with a favorable safety profile for the mother and infant should be discussed and implemented well in advance of planning a family. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class III evidence that for women with relapsing-remitting MS or clinically isolated syndrome who become pregnant, ocrelizumab, rituximab, and natalizumab (continued ≥28 weeks of gestation and restarted ≤1 month postpartum) were associated with reduced risk of relapses, compared with other therapeutic strategies.

• MeSH
• dospělí MeSH
• humanizované monoklonální protilátky * farmakologie   aplikace a dávkování   MeSH
• imunologické faktory * farmakologie   aplikace a dávkování   MeSH
• komplikace těhotenství * farmakoterapie   MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mladý dospělý MeSH
• poporodní období * MeSH
• registrace MeSH
• relabující-remitující roztroušená skleróza farmakoterapie   MeSH
• retrospektivní studie MeSH
• roztroušená skleróza farmakoterapie   MeSH
• těhotenství MeSH
• Check Tag
• dospělí MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mladý dospělý MeSH
• těhotenství MeSH
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

OBJECTIVES: Microstructural characterization of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) has been shown to correlate better with disability compared to conventional radiological biomarkers. Quantitative MRI provides effective means to characterize microstructural brain tissue changes both in lesions and normal-appearing brain tissue. However, the impact of the location of microstructural alterations in terms of neuronal pathways has not been thoroughly explored so far. Here, we study the extent and the location of tissue changes probed using quantitative MRI along white matter (WM) tracts extracted from a connectivity atlas. METHODS: We quantified voxel-wise T1 tissue alterations compared to normative values in a cohort of 99 MS patients. For each WM tract, we extracted metrics reflecting tissue alterations both in lesions and normal-appearing WM and correlated these with cross-sectional disability and disability evolution after 2 years. RESULTS: In early MS patients, T1 alterations in normal-appearing WM correlated better with disability evolution compared to cross-sectional disability. Further, the presence of lesions in supratentorial tracts was more strongly associated with cross-sectional disability, while microstructural alterations in infratentorial pathways yielded higher correlations with disability evolution. In progressive patients, all major WM pathways contributed similarly to explaining disability, and correlations with disability evolution were generally poor. CONCLUSIONS: We showed that microstructural changes evaluated in specific WM pathways contribute to explaining future disability in early MS, hence highlighting the potential of tract-wise analyses in monitoring disease progression. Further, the proposed technique allows to estimate WM tract-specific microstructural characteristics in clinically compatible acquisition times, without the need for advanced diffusion imaging.

• MeSH
• bílá hmota * diagnostické zobrazování   patologie   MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• magnetická rezonanční tomografie metody   MeSH
• mozek diagnostické zobrazování   patologie   MeSH
• průřezové studie MeSH
• roztroušená skleróza * diagnostické zobrazování   patologie   MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

Multiple sclerosis is a chronic, inflammatory, and neurodegenerative disease of the central nervous system and a major cause of neurological disability in young adults. Its prevalence and incidence are increasing, and it has been estimated at over 2.8 million cases worldwide, in addition to recent trends towards a shift in MS prevalence to older ages, with peak prevalence estimates in the sixth decade of life. Although historically the relapsing and progressive phases of the disease have been considered separate clinical entities, recent evidence of progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) has led to a reconsideration of multiple sclerosis as a continuum, in which relapsing and progressive features variably coexist from the earliest stages of the disease, challenging the traditional view of the disease course. In this Series article, we provide an overview of how the traditional description of the clinical course of MS and epidemiological trends in Europe have evolved. For this purpose, we focus on the concept of PIRA, discussing its potential as the main mechanism by which patients acquire disability, how its definition varies between studies, and ongoing research in this field. We emphasise the importance of incorporating the assessment of hidden clinical manifestations into patient management to help uncover and quantify the PIRA phenomenon and the possible implications for future changes in the clinical classification of the disease. At the same time, we provide insights into overcoming the challenges of identifying and defining PIRA and adopting a new understanding of the clinical course of MS.

• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• přehledy MeSH

• MeSH
• genetická predispozice k nemoci MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• roztroušená skleróza * genetika   MeSH
• stupeň závažnosti nemoci MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé MeSH
• Publikační typ
• dopisy MeSH

Anti-drug antibodies (ADA) reduce the efficacy of immunotherapies in multiple sclerosis (MS) and are associated with increased disease progression risk. Blood biomarkers predicting immunogenicity to biopharmaceuticals represent an unmet clinical need. Patients with relapsing remitting (RR)MS were recruited before (baseline), three, and 12 (M12) months after commencing interferon-beta treatment. Neutralising ADA-status was determined at M12, and patients were stratified at baseline according to their M12 ADA-status (ADA-positive/ADA-negative). Patients stratified as ADA-positive were characterised by an early dampened response to interferon-beta (prior to serum ADA detection) and distinct proinflammatory transcriptomic/proteomic peripheral blood signatures enriched for 'immune response activation' including phosphoinositide 3-kinase-γ and NFκB-signalling pathways both at baseline and throughout the treatment course, compared to ADA-negative patients. These immunogenicity-associated proinflammatory signatures significantly overlapped with signatures of MS disease severity. Thus, whole blood molecular profiling is a promising tool for prediction of ADA-development in RRMS and could provide insight into mechanisms of immunogenicity.

• MeSH
• biologické markery krev   MeSH
• dospělí MeSH
• interferon beta * terapeutické užití   imunologie   MeSH
• lidé středního věku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• proteomika * MeSH
• relabující-remitující roztroušená skleróza * farmakoterapie   imunologie   krev   MeSH
• roztroušená skleróza farmakoterapie   imunologie   krev   MeSH
• stupeň závažnosti nemoci MeSH
• transkriptom * MeSH
• Check Tag
• dospělí MeSH
• lidé středního věku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

BACKGROUND: The International Multiple Sclerosis Genetics Consortium and MultipleMS Consortium recently reported a genetic variant associated with multiple sclerosis (MS) severity. However, it remains unclear if these variants remain associated with more robust, longitudinal measures of disease severity. METHODS: We examined the top variant, rs10191329, from Harroud et al.'s study in 1813 relapse-onset MS patients from the MSBase Registry to assess association with longitudinal disease severity. RESULTS: Our analysis revealed no significant association between rs10191329 genotype and longitudinal binary disease severity (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: These findings highlight the complexity of genetic factors mediating long-term MS outcomes and the need for further research.

• MeSH
• dospělí MeSH
• genotyp MeSH
• jednonukleotidový polymorfismus MeSH
• lidé středního věku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• longitudinální studie MeSH
• registrace * MeSH
• relabující-remitující roztroušená skleróza * genetika   MeSH
• roztroušená skleróza genetika   MeSH
• stupeň závažnosti nemoci * MeSH
• Check Tag
• dospělí MeSH
• lidé středního věku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

BACKGROUND: Aggressive disease control soon after multiple sclerosis (MS) diagnosis may prevent irreversible neurological damage, and therefore early initiation of a high-efficacy disease-modifying therapy (DMT) is of clinical relevance. OBJECTIVES: Evaluate long-term clinical outcomes in patients with MS who initiated treatment with either natalizumab or a BRACETD therapy (interferon beta, glatiramer acetate, teriflunomide, or dimethyl fumarate). DESIGN: This retrospective analysis utilized data from MSBase to create a matched population allowing comparison of first-line natalizumab to first-line BRACETD. METHODS: This study included patients who initiated treatment either with natalizumab or a BRACETD DMT within 1 year of MS diagnosis and continued treatment for ⩾6 months, after which patients could switch DMTs or discontinue treatment. Patients had a minimum follow-up time of ⩾60 months from initiation. A subgroup analysis compared the natalizumab group to patients in the BRACETD group who escalated therapy after 6 months. Outcomes included unadjusted annualized relapse rates (ARRs), time-to-first relapse, time-to-first confirmed disability improvement (CDI), and time-to-first confirmed disability worsening (CDW). RESULTS: After 1:1 propensity score matching, 355 BRACETD patients were matched to 355 natalizumab patients. Patients initiating natalizumab were less likely to experience a relapse over the duration of follow-up, with ARRs [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 0.080 (0.070-0.092) for natalizumab patients and 0.191 (0.178-0.205) for BRACETD patients (p < 0.0001). A Cox regression model of time-to-first relapse showed a reduced risk of relapse for natalizumab patients [hazard ratio (95% CI) of 0.52 (0.42-0.65); p < 0.001] and a more favorable time-to-first CDI. The risk of CDW was similar between groups. The subgroup analysis showed an increased relapse risk as well as a significantly higher risk of CDW for BRACETD patients. CONCLUSION: Early initiation of natalizumab produced long-term benefits in relapse outcomes in comparison with BRACETD, regardless of a subsequent escalation in therapy.

• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is threefold more prevalent in women than men. However, sex-specific efficacy analysis for MS disease-modifying therapies is not typically performed. Methods:Post hoc analyses of data from female patients enrolled in the phase 3, double-blind OPTIMUM study of relapsing MS were carried out. Eligible adults were randomized to ponesimod 20 mg or teriflunomide 14 mg once daily for up to 108 weeks. The primary endpoint was annualized relapse rate (ARR); secondary endpoints included change in symptom domain of Fatigue Symptom and Impact Questionnaire-Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis (FSIQ-RMS) at week 108, number of combined unique active lesions (CUALs) per year on magnetic resonance imaging, and time to 12- and 24-week confirmed disability accumulation (CDA). Results: A total of 735 female patients (581 of childbearing potential) were randomized to ponesimod (n = 363, 49.4%) or teriflunomide (n = 372, 50.6%). Relative risk reduction in the ARR for ponesimod versus teriflunomide was 33.1% (mean, 0.192 vs. 0.286, respectively; p < 0.002). Mean difference in FSIQ-RMS for ponesimod versus teriflunomide was -4.34 (0.12 vs. 4.46; p = 0.002); rate ratio in CUALs per year, 0.601 (1.45 vs. 2.41; p < 0.0001), and hazard ratio for time to 12- and 24-week CDA risk estimates, 0.83 (10.7% vs. 12.9%; p = 0.38) and 0.91 (8.8% vs. 9.7%; p = 0.69), respectively. Incidence of treatment-emergent adverse events was similar between treatment groups (89.0% and 90.1%). Conclusions: Analyses demonstrate the efficacy and safety of ponesimod, versus active comparator, for women with relapsing MS, supporting data-informed decision-making for women with MS. Clinical Trial Registration Number: NCT02425644.

• MeSH
• dospělí MeSH
• dvojitá slepá metoda MeSH
• hydroxybutyráty * MeSH
• krotonáty * terapeutické užití   škodlivé účinky   MeSH
• lidé středního věku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• magnetická rezonanční tomografie MeSH
• nitrily * terapeutické užití   škodlivé účinky   MeSH
• průzkumy a dotazníky MeSH
• relabující-remitující roztroušená skleróza * farmakoterapie   MeSH
• thiazoly škodlivé účinky   terapeutické užití   MeSH
• toluidiny * terapeutické užití   škodlivé účinky   MeSH
• výsledek terapie MeSH
• Check Tag
• dospělí MeSH
• lidé středního věku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• klinické zkoušky, fáze III MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH
• randomizované kontrolované studie MeSH
• srovnávací studie MeSH