Caused by Yersinia pestis, plague ravaged the world through three known pandemics: the First or the Justinianic (6th-8th century); the Second (beginning with the Black Death during c.1338-1353 and lasting until the 19th century); and the Third (which became global in 1894). It is debatable whether Y. pestis persisted in European wildlife reservoirs or was repeatedly introduced from outside Europe (as covered by European Union and the British Isles). Here, we analyze environmental data (soil characteristics and climate) from active Chinese plague reservoirs to assess whether such environmental conditions in Europe had ever supported "natural plague reservoirs". We have used new statistical methods which are validated through predicting the presence of modern plague reservoirs in the western United States. We find no support for persistent natural plague reservoirs in either historical or modern Europe. Two factors make Europe unfavorable for long-term plague reservoirs: 1) Soil texture and biochemistry and 2) low rodent diversity. By comparing rodent communities in Europe with those in China and the United States, we conclude that a lack of suitable host species might be the main reason for the absence of plague reservoirs in Europe today. These findings support the hypothesis that long-term plague reservoirs did not exist in Europe and therefore question the importance of wildlife rodent species as the primary plague hosts in Europe.

• Klíčová slova
• Europe, Yersinia pestis, environmental conditions, natural plague reservoirs, rodent diversity,
• MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mor * epidemiologie   dějiny   MeSH
• pandemie dějiny   MeSH
• podnebí MeSH
• půda MeSH
• Yersinia pestis * MeSH
• zdroje nemoci MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Evropa MeSH
• Názvy látek
• půda MeSH

The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe.

• Klíčová slova
• Yersinia pestis, climate-driven disease dynamics, medieval epidemiology,
• MeSH
• dějiny středověku MeSH
• epidemický výskyt choroby dějiny   MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mor epidemiologie   přenos   MeSH
• podnebí * MeSH
• Check Tag
• dějiny středověku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• historické články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Evropa epidemiologie   MeSH