BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) death rates have fallen across most of Europe in recent decades. However, substantial risk factor reductions have not been achieved across all Europe. Our aim was to quantify the potential impact of future policy scenarios on diet and lifestyle on CHD mortality in 9 European countries. METHODS: We updated the previously validated IMPACT CHD models in 9 European countries and extended them to 2010-11 (the baseline year) to predict reductions in CHD mortality to 2020(ages 25-74years). We compared three scenarios: conservative, intermediate and optimistic on smoking prevalence (absolute decreases of 5%, 10% and 15%); saturated fat intake (1%, 2% and 3% absolute decreases in % energy intake, replaced by unsaturated fats); salt (relative decreases of 10%, 20% and 30%), and physical inactivity (absolute decreases of 5%, 10% and 15%). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Under the conservative, intermediate and optimistic scenarios, we estimated 10.8% (95% CI: 7.3-14.0), 20.7% (95% CI: 15.6-25.2) and 29.1% (95% CI: 22.6-35.0) fewer CHD deaths in 2020. For the optimistic scenario, 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 8.9%-11.6%, Salt intake relative reductions of 30% by approximately 5.9-8.9%; 3% reductions in saturated fat intake by 6.3-7.5%, and 15% absolute increases in physical activity by 3.7-5.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Modest and feasible policy-based reductions in cardiovascular risk factors (already been achieved in some other countries) could translate into substantial reductions in future CHD deaths across Europe. However, this would require the European Union to more effectively implement powerful evidence-based prevention policies.

• Klíčová slova
• Coronary heart disease, Food policy, Mortality trends, Physical activity, Policy modelling, Prevention, Smoking,
• MeSH
• dietní tuky * škodlivé účinky   MeSH
• dospělí MeSH
• kardiovaskulární nemoci dietoterapie   mortalita   prevence a kontrola   MeSH
• kouření škodlivé účinky   mortalita   trendy   MeSH
• kuchyňská sůl * škodlivé účinky   MeSH
• lidé středního věku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mortalita trendy   MeSH
• rizikové faktory MeSH
• senioři MeSH
• stravovací zvyklosti MeSH
• teoretické modely * MeSH
• životní styl * MeSH
• Check Tag
• dospělí MeSH
• lidé středního věku MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• senioři MeSH
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Evropa MeSH
• Názvy látek
• dietní tuky * MeSH
• kuchyňská sůl * MeSH

The occurrence of overweight, obesity and physical activity (PA) belongs to major factors influencing health. However, information on the longitudinal development of PA in Europe has been, up until now, insufficient. The aim of the study was to describe the changes in PA, sedentary behavior and BMI in the inhabitants of the Liberec region during the surveybetween 2002 - 2009. The data were obtained in 2002-2004 using the short version of the IPAQ questionnaire, in 2005-2009 using the long version of the IPAQ. The sample of participants comprised 957 males and 1066 females aged 25-60 years. A significant decrease in sitting accounting for minutes on working days has been recorded both in men and women. A significant increase of PA both in men and women was reported, however the interpretation of the increase needs to be done cautiously due to the application of the short and long version of the IPAQ. Regarding PA intensity, men show more PA in total than women, which can be explained mainly by the differences in vigorous PA. Women show significantly lower values of BMI in all years in which surveys were conducted than men (p<0.001). Based on self-reported data, we have recorded an increase in the number of overweight and obese people. Time spent sitting on working days has had a tendency to decrease, yet a negative trend in the decrease in self-reported total PA has not been confirmed. Despite the fact that there has been an increase in self-reported PA, no decrease in BMI was registered.

• Klíčová slova
• obesity, overweight, physical activity, questionnaire, trends,
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH