OBJECTIVES: We assess the potential benefits of increased physical activity for the global economy for 23 countries and the rest of the world from 2020 to 2050. The main factors taken into account in the economic assessment are excess mortality and lower productivity. METHODS: This study links three methodologies. First, we estimate the association between physical inactivity and workplace productivity using multivariable regression models with proprietary data on 120 143 individuals in the UK and six Asian countries (Australia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore and Sri Lanka). Second, we analyse the association between physical activity and mortality risk through a meta-regression analysis with data from 74 prior studies with global coverage. Finally, the estimated effects are combined in a computable general equilibrium macroeconomic model to project the economic benefits of physical activity over time. RESULTS: Doing at least 150 min of moderate-intensity physical activity per week, as per lower limit of the range recommended by the 2020 WHO guidelines, would lead to an increase in global gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.15%-0.24% per year by 2050, worth up to US$314-446 billion per year and US$6.0-8.6 trillion cumulatively over the 30-year projection horizon (in 2019 prices). The results vary by country due to differences in baseline levels of physical activity and GDP per capita. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing physical activity in the population would lead to reduction in working-age mortality and morbidity and an increase in productivity, particularly through lower presenteeism, leading to substantial economic gains for the global economy.

• Klíčová slova
• economics, physical activity, statistics,
• MeSH
• celosvětové zdraví ekonomika   MeSH
• cvičení * MeSH
• hrubý domácí produkt statistika a číselné údaje   MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• mortalita trendy   MeSH
• podpora zdraví ekonomika   MeSH
• sedavý životní styl * MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

Increasing life expectancy in modern society is undoubtedly due to improved healthcare, scientific advances in medicine, and the overall healthy lifestyle of the general population. However, this positive trend has led to an increase in the number of older people with a growing need for a sustainable system for the long-term care of this part of the population, which includes social and health services that are essential for a high quality of life. Longevity also brings challenges in the form of a polymorbid geriatric population that places financial pressure on healthcare systems. Regardless, one disease dominates the debate about financial sustainability due to the increasing numbers of people diagnosed, and that is Alzheimer's disease (AD). The presented paper aims to demonstrate the economic burden of social and healthcare services. Data from two regions in the Czech Republic were selected to demonstrate the potential scope of the problem. The future costs connected with AD are calculated by a prediction model, which is based on a population model for predicting the number of people with AD between 2020 and 2070. Based on the presented data from the two regions in the Czech Republic and the prediction model, several trends emerged. There appears to be a significant difference in the annual direct costs per person diagnosed with AD depending on the region in which they reside. This may lead to a significant inequality of the services a person can acquire followed by subsequent social issues that can manifest as a lower quality of life. Furthermore, given the prediction of the growing AD population, the costs expressed in constant prices based on the year 2020 will increase almost threefold during the period 2020-2070. The predicted threefold increase will place additional financial pressure on all stakeholders responsible for social and healthcare services, as the current situation is already challenging.

• Klíčová slova
• Alzheimer’s disease, Czech Republic, costs, prediction model,
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH

BACKGROUND: Given the increasing lifespan of the elderly and the higher proportion of older people in the global population, the incidence rate of neurodegenerative diseases is increasing. The aim of this study is to evaluate, by means of computer simulations, developments in the costs of treating and caring for people suffering from Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the EU 28 by 2080, while assuming the introduction of drug administrations at various disease stages. METHODS: Impact analysis leverages a mathematical model that compares five different population development scenarios when introducing different types of drugs to the scenarios but without changing the treatment. Changes in the economic burden are considered as of 2023, when new drugs are expected to enter the market. FINDINGS: The results of the simulations show that by prolonging the length of a person's 'stay' in the Mild, Moderate, or Severe stage, the total cost of care for all persons with AD will increase by 2080. For individual scenarios, the percentage of patients and costs increased as follows: Mild by one year, by 10.61%; Mild by two years, by 17.73%; Moderate by one year, by 16.79%; Moderate by two years, by 34.88%; and Severe by one year, by 23.79%. The change in cost development when prolonging the stay in the Mild cognitive impairment stage (by lowering the incidence by 10%, 30%, or 50%) reduced the cost (by 4.88%, 16.78% and 32.48%, respectively). INTERPRETATION: The results unambiguously show that any intervention prolonging a patient's stay in any stage will incur additional care costs and an increase in the number of persons with AD. Therefore, extending lifespan is important in terms of improving the quality of life of patients, and the introduction of new drugs must consider the additional costs imposed upon society.

• MeSH
• Alzheimerova nemoc farmakoterapie   ekonomika   terapie   MeSH
• dlouhověkost MeSH
• kognitivní dysfunkce farmakoterapie   ekonomika   terapie   MeSH
• kvalita života MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• náklady na zdravotní péči statistika a číselné údaje   MeSH
• nootropní látky ekonomika   terapeutické užití   MeSH
• počítačová simulace MeSH
• senioři nad 80 let MeSH
• senioři MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé MeSH
• mužské pohlaví MeSH
• senioři nad 80 let MeSH
• senioři MeSH
• ženské pohlaví MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH
• Geografické názvy
• Evropa MeSH
• Názvy látek
• nootropní látky MeSH