Biological invasions are a global consequence of an increasingly connected world and the rise in human population size. The numbers of invasive alien species - the subset of alien species that spread widely in areas where they are not native, affecting the environment or human livelihoods - are increasing. Synergies with other global changes are exacerbating current invasions and facilitating new ones, thereby escalating the extent and impacts of invaders. Invasions have complex and often immense long-term direct and indirect impacts. In many cases, such impacts become apparent or problematic only when invaders are well established and have large ranges. Invasive alien species break down biogeographic realms, affect native species richness and abundance, increase the risk of native species extinction, affect the genetic composition of native populations, change native animal behaviour, alter phylogenetic diversity across communities, and modify trophic networks. Many invasive alien species also change ecosystem functioning and the delivery of ecosystem services by altering nutrient and contaminant cycling, hydrology, habitat structure, and disturbance regimes. These biodiversity and ecosystem impacts are accelerating and will increase further in the future. Scientific evidence has identified policy strategies to reduce future invasions, but these strategies are often insufficiently implemented. For some nations, notably Australia and New Zealand, biosecurity has become a national priority. There have been long-term successes, such as eradication of rats and cats on increasingly large islands and biological control of weeds across continental areas. However, in many countries, invasions receive little attention. Improved international cooperation is crucial to reduce the impacts of invasive alien species on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human livelihoods. Countries can strengthen their biosecurity regulations to implement and enforce more effective management strategies that should also address other global changes that interact with invasions.

• Klíčová slova
• biological invasions, biosecurity, environmental impacts, global change, invasion dynamics, invasion hotspots, naturalization, policy, protected areas, socioeconomic impacts,
• MeSH
• biodiverzita MeSH
• ekosystém * MeSH
• fylogeneze MeSH
• hustota populace MeSH
• krysa rodu Rattus MeSH
• zavlečené druhy * MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Check Tag
• krysa rodu Rattus MeSH
• zvířata MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH
• práce podpořená grantem MeSH
• Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. MeSH

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%-30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions-transport, climate change and socio-economic change-were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

• Klíčová slova
• biological invasions, expert survey, globalization, impacts, management, policy, scenarios, uncertainties,
• MeSH
• biodiverzita * MeSH
• ekosystém MeSH
• klimatické změny MeSH
• lidé MeSH
• předpověď MeSH
• zavlečené druhy * MeSH
• Check Tag
• lidé MeSH
• Publikační typ
• časopisecké články MeSH