The shrinkage of glaciers and the vanishing of glacier-fed streams (GFSs) are emblematic of climate change. However, forecasts of how GFS microbiome structure and function will change under projected climate change scenarios are lacking. Combining 2,333 prokaryotic metagenome-assembled genomes with climatic, glaciological, and environmental data collected by the Vanishing Glaciers project from 164 GFSs draining Earth's major mountain ranges, we here predict the future of the GFS microbiome until the end of the century under various climate change scenarios. Our model framework is rooted in a space-for-time substitution design and leverages statistical learning approaches. We predict that declining environmental selection promotes primary production in GFSs, stimulating both bacterial biomass and biodiversity. Concomitantly, predictions suggest that the phylogenetic structure of the GFS microbiome will change and entire bacterial clades are at risk. Furthermore, genomic projections reveal that microbiome functions will shift, with intensified solar energy acquisition pathways, heterotrophy and algal-bacterial interactions. Altogether, we project a 'greener' future of the world's GFSs accompanied by a loss of clades that have adapted to environmental harshness, with consequences for ecosystem functioning.
The rapid melting of mountain glaciers and the vanishing of their streams is emblematic of climate change1,2. Glacier-fed streams (GFSs) are cold, oligotrophic and unstable ecosystems in which life is dominated by microbial biofilms2,3. However, current knowledge on the GFS microbiome is scarce4,5, precluding an understanding of its response to glacier shrinkage. Here, by leveraging metabarcoding and metagenomics, we provide a comprehensive survey of bacteria in the benthic microbiome across 152 GFSs draining the Earth's major mountain ranges. We find that the GFS bacterial microbiome is taxonomically and functionally distinct from other cryospheric microbiomes. GFS bacteria are diverse, with more than half being specific to a given mountain range, some unique to single GFSs and a few cosmopolitan and abundant. We show how geographic isolation and environmental selection shape their biogeography, which is characterized by distinct compositional patterns between mountain ranges and hemispheres. Phylogenetic analyses furthermore uncovered microdiverse clades resulting from environmental selection, probably promoting functional resilience and contributing to GFS bacterial biodiversity and biogeography. Climate-induced glacier shrinkage puts this unique microbiome at risk. Our study provides a global reference for future climate-change microbiology studies on the vanishing GFS ecosystem.
