Uncovering causal interdependencies from observational data is one of the great challenges of a nonlinear time series analysis. In this paper, we discuss this topic with the help of an information-theoretic concept known as Rényi's information measure. In particular, we tackle the directional information flow between bivariate time series in terms of Rényi's transfer entropy. We show that by choosing Rényi's parameter α, we can appropriately control information that is transferred only between selected parts of the underlying distributions. This, in turn, is a particularly potent tool for quantifying causal interdependencies in time series, where the knowledge of "black swan" events, such as spikes or sudden jumps, are of key importance. In this connection, we first prove that for Gaussian variables, Granger causality and Rényi transfer entropy are entirely equivalent. Moreover, we also partially extend these results to heavy-tailed α-Gaussian variables. These results allow establishing a connection between autoregressive and Rényi entropy-based information-theoretic approaches to data-driven causal inference. To aid our intuition, we employed the Leonenko et al. entropy estimator and analyzed Rényi's information flow between bivariate time series generated from two unidirectionally coupled Rössler systems. Notably, we find that Rényi's transfer entropy not only allows us to detect a threshold of synchronization but it also provides non-trivial insight into the structure of a transient regime that exists between the region of chaotic correlations and synchronization threshold. In addition, from Rényi's transfer entropy, we could reliably infer the direction of coupling and, hence, causality, only for coupling strengths smaller than the onset value of the transient regime, i.e., when two Rössler systems are coupled but have not yet entered synchronization.

• Keywords
• Rényi entropy, Rényi transfer entropy, Rössler system, multivariate time series,
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH

The maximum entropy principle consists of two steps: The first step is to find the distribution which maximizes entropy under given constraints. The second step is to calculate the corresponding thermodynamic quantities. The second part is determined by Lagrange multipliers' relation to the measurable physical quantities as temperature or Helmholtz free energy/free entropy. We show that for a given MaxEnt distribution, the whole class of entropies and constraints leads to the same distribution but generally different thermodynamics. Two simple classes of transformations that preserve the MaxEnt distributions are studied: The first case is a transform of the entropy to an arbitrary increasing function of that entropy. The second case is the transform of the energetic constraint to a combination of the normalization and energetic constraints. We derive group transformations of the Lagrange multipliers corresponding to these transformations and determine their connections to thermodynamic quantities. For each case, we provide a simple example of this transformation.

• Keywords
• Lagrange multipliers, MaxEnt distribution, calibration invariance, maximum entropy principle,
• Publication type
• Journal Article MeSH